Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Publication Date: | 2022 |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | por |
Source: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Download full: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/35188 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2 |
Summary: | An intercomparison of four air quality models is performed in the tropical megacity of Sao Paulo with the perspective of developing an air quality forecasting system based on a regional model ensemble. During three contrasting periods marked by different types of pollution events, we analyze the concentrations of the main regulated pollutants (Ozone, CO, SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10) compared to observations of a dense air quality monitoring network. The modeled concentrations of CO, PM and NOx are in good agreement with the observations for the temporal variability and the range of variation. However, the transport of pollutants due to biomass burning pollution events can strongly affect the air quality in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo with increases of CO, PM2.5 and PM10, and is associated with an important inter-model variability. Our results show that each model has periods and pollutants for which it has the best agreement. The observed day-to-day variability of ozone concentration is well reproduced by the models, as well as the average diurnal cycle in terms of timing. Overall the performance for ozone of the median of the regional model ensemble is the best in terms of time and magnitude because it takes advantage of the capabilities of each model. Therefore, an ensemble prediction of regional models is promising for an operational air quality forecasting system for the megacity of Sao Paulo. |
id |
RCAP_afafec431bb7b6767750fbf75a040621 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/35188 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São PauloAir qualityModellingAir pollutionAn intercomparison of four air quality models is performed in the tropical megacity of Sao Paulo with the perspective of developing an air quality forecasting system based on a regional model ensemble. During three contrasting periods marked by different types of pollution events, we analyze the concentrations of the main regulated pollutants (Ozone, CO, SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10) compared to observations of a dense air quality monitoring network. The modeled concentrations of CO, PM and NOx are in good agreement with the observations for the temporal variability and the range of variation. However, the transport of pollutants due to biomass burning pollution events can strongly affect the air quality in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo with increases of CO, PM2.5 and PM10, and is associated with an important inter-model variability. Our results show that each model has periods and pollutants for which it has the best agreement. The observed day-to-day variability of ozone concentration is well reproduced by the models, as well as the average diurnal cycle in terms of timing. Overall the performance for ozone of the median of the regional model ensemble is the best in terms of time and magnitude because it takes advantage of the capabilities of each model. Therefore, an ensemble prediction of regional models is promising for an operational air quality forecasting system for the megacity of Sao Paulo.This article is a direct contribution to the research themes of the Klimapolis Lab-836 oratory (klimapolis.net), which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education837 and Research (BMBF).ESS Open Archive2023-05-17T16:55:09Z2023-05-172022-11-17T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/35188https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2http://hdl.handle.net/10174/35188https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2porAdrien Michel Deroubaix, Judith Johanna Hoelzemann, Rita Ynoue, et al. Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo. ESS Open Archive . November 17, 2022.https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2ndndndndedicle.duarte@uevora.ptndndndndndndndndndndndndndnd390Deroubaix, AdrienHoelzemann, Judith J.Ynoue, Rita YuriBouarar, IdirDuarte, EdicleAlbuquerque, Taciana Toledo de AlmeidaAlves, Rafaela CruzAndrade, Maria de FatimaAndreão, Willian LemkerElbern, HendrikFranke, PhilippLange, Anne CarolineLichtig, PabloLugon, LyaMartins, Leila D.Moreira, Gregori de ArrudaPedruzzi, RizzieriRosario, NiltonBrasseur, Guyinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T19:38:33Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/35188Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:23:39.242057Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo |
title |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo |
spellingShingle |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo Deroubaix, Adrien Air quality Modelling Air pollution |
title_short |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo |
title_full |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo |
title_fullStr |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo |
title_full_unstemmed |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo |
title_sort |
Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo |
author |
Deroubaix, Adrien |
author_facet |
Deroubaix, Adrien Hoelzemann, Judith J. Ynoue, Rita Yuri Bouarar, Idir Duarte, Edicle Albuquerque, Taciana Toledo de Almeida Alves, Rafaela Cruz Andrade, Maria de Fatima Andreão, Willian Lemker Elbern, Hendrik Franke, Philipp Lange, Anne Caroline Lichtig, Pablo Lugon, Lya Martins, Leila D. Moreira, Gregori de Arruda Pedruzzi, Rizzieri Rosario, Nilton Brasseur, Guy |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Hoelzemann, Judith J. Ynoue, Rita Yuri Bouarar, Idir Duarte, Edicle Albuquerque, Taciana Toledo de Almeida Alves, Rafaela Cruz Andrade, Maria de Fatima Andreão, Willian Lemker Elbern, Hendrik Franke, Philipp Lange, Anne Caroline Lichtig, Pablo Lugon, Lya Martins, Leila D. Moreira, Gregori de Arruda Pedruzzi, Rizzieri Rosario, Nilton Brasseur, Guy |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Deroubaix, Adrien Hoelzemann, Judith J. Ynoue, Rita Yuri Bouarar, Idir Duarte, Edicle Albuquerque, Taciana Toledo de Almeida Alves, Rafaela Cruz Andrade, Maria de Fatima Andreão, Willian Lemker Elbern, Hendrik Franke, Philipp Lange, Anne Caroline Lichtig, Pablo Lugon, Lya Martins, Leila D. Moreira, Gregori de Arruda Pedruzzi, Rizzieri Rosario, Nilton Brasseur, Guy |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Air quality Modelling Air pollution |
topic |
Air quality Modelling Air pollution |
description |
An intercomparison of four air quality models is performed in the tropical megacity of Sao Paulo with the perspective of developing an air quality forecasting system based on a regional model ensemble. During three contrasting periods marked by different types of pollution events, we analyze the concentrations of the main regulated pollutants (Ozone, CO, SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10) compared to observations of a dense air quality monitoring network. The modeled concentrations of CO, PM and NOx are in good agreement with the observations for the temporal variability and the range of variation. However, the transport of pollutants due to biomass burning pollution events can strongly affect the air quality in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo with increases of CO, PM2.5 and PM10, and is associated with an important inter-model variability. Our results show that each model has periods and pollutants for which it has the best agreement. The observed day-to-day variability of ozone concentration is well reproduced by the models, as well as the average diurnal cycle in terms of timing. Overall the performance for ozone of the median of the regional model ensemble is the best in terms of time and magnitude because it takes advantage of the capabilities of each model. Therefore, an ensemble prediction of regional models is promising for an operational air quality forecasting system for the megacity of Sao Paulo. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-17T00:00:00Z 2023-05-17T16:55:09Z 2023-05-17 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/35188 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2 http://hdl.handle.net/10174/35188 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/35188 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Adrien Michel Deroubaix, Judith Johanna Hoelzemann, Rita Ynoue, et al. Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo. ESS Open Archive . November 17, 2022. https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.1002/essoar.10512847.2 nd nd nd nd edicle.duarte@uevora.pt nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd 390 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ESS Open Archive |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ESS Open Archive |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799136718698315776 |