Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/80148 |
Resumo: | In the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies to understand and mitigate the risks. Numerical models can provide forecasts of extreme floods and sea-level rise (SLR). However, they can present inaccuracies. In this work, the ensemble technique was applied to improve the numerical modeling forecasting for estuaries by considering scenarios of extreme river flow discharges (EFDs) and SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The simulations were performed for two different estuarine regions in northern Portugal, and the superensemble was constructed with the results of two different numerical models. The results differed per estuary, highlighting the importance of a local approach. For the Douro estuary dynamics, the results showed that for the EFD, the effects of the SLR were not noticeable, indicating that, in this estuary, the river component was more important than the maritime component. In contrast, the Minho estuary dynamics were found to be affected by the SLR along the whole estuarine region, indicating a maritime influence and a worsening of the flood conditions for future scenarios. |
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Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regionsEstuariesHydrodynamicsEnsembleNumerical modelsExtreme eventsClimate changeScience & TechnologyIn the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies to understand and mitigate the risks. Numerical models can provide forecasts of extreme floods and sea-level rise (SLR). However, they can present inaccuracies. In this work, the ensemble technique was applied to improve the numerical modeling forecasting for estuaries by considering scenarios of extreme river flow discharges (EFDs) and SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The simulations were performed for two different estuarine regions in northern Portugal, and the superensemble was constructed with the results of two different numerical models. The results differed per estuary, highlighting the importance of a local approach. For the Douro estuary dynamics, the results showed that for the EFD, the effects of the SLR were not noticeable, indicating that, in this estuary, the river component was more important than the maritime component. In contrast, the Minho estuary dynamics were found to be affected by the SLR along the whole estuarine region, indicating a maritime influence and a worsening of the flood conditions for future scenarios.This research was partially supported by the Strategic Funding UIDB/04423/2020 and UIDP/04423/2020 through national funds provided by the FCT—Foundation for Science and Technology and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). This contribution was also funded by the project EsCo-Ensembles (PTDC/ECI-EGC/30877/2017), co-financed by NORTE 2020, Portugal 2020, and the European Union through the ERDF, and by the FCT through national funds.Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)Universidade do MinhoIglesias, IsabelBio, AnaMelo, Willian WeberAvilez-Valente, PauloPinho, José L. S.Cruz, Mariana Reis MonteiroGomes, Ana Carolina MagalhãesVieira, J.M.P.Bastos, LuísaVeloso-Gomes, Fernando2022-06-202022-06-20T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/1822/80148engIglesias, I.; Bio, A.; Melo, W.; Avilez-Valente, P.; Pinho, J.; Cruz, M.; Gomes, A.; Vieira, J.; Bastos, L.; Veloso-Gomes, F. Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions. Water 2022, 14, 1966. https://doi.org/10.3390/w141219662073-444110.3390/w141219661966https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/12/1966info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:20:42ZPortal AgregadorONG |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions |
title |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions |
spellingShingle |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions Iglesias, Isabel Estuaries Hydrodynamics Ensemble Numerical models Extreme events Climate change Science & Technology |
title_short |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions |
title_full |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions |
title_fullStr |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions |
title_sort |
Hydrodynamic model ensembles for climate change projections in estuarine regions |
author |
Iglesias, Isabel |
author_facet |
Iglesias, Isabel Bio, Ana Melo, Willian Weber Avilez-Valente, Paulo Pinho, José L. S. Cruz, Mariana Reis Monteiro Gomes, Ana Carolina Magalhães Vieira, J.M.P. Bastos, Luísa Veloso-Gomes, Fernando |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Bio, Ana Melo, Willian Weber Avilez-Valente, Paulo Pinho, José L. S. Cruz, Mariana Reis Monteiro Gomes, Ana Carolina Magalhães Vieira, J.M.P. Bastos, Luísa Veloso-Gomes, Fernando |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Iglesias, Isabel Bio, Ana Melo, Willian Weber Avilez-Valente, Paulo Pinho, José L. S. Cruz, Mariana Reis Monteiro Gomes, Ana Carolina Magalhães Vieira, J.M.P. Bastos, Luísa Veloso-Gomes, Fernando |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Estuaries Hydrodynamics Ensemble Numerical models Extreme events Climate change Science & Technology |
topic |
Estuaries Hydrodynamics Ensemble Numerical models Extreme events Climate change Science & Technology |
description |
In the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies to understand and mitigate the risks. Numerical models can provide forecasts of extreme floods and sea-level rise (SLR). However, they can present inaccuracies. In this work, the ensemble technique was applied to improve the numerical modeling forecasting for estuaries by considering scenarios of extreme river flow discharges (EFDs) and SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The simulations were performed for two different estuarine regions in northern Portugal, and the superensemble was constructed with the results of two different numerical models. The results differed per estuary, highlighting the importance of a local approach. For the Douro estuary dynamics, the results showed that for the EFD, the effects of the SLR were not noticeable, indicating that, in this estuary, the river component was more important than the maritime component. In contrast, the Minho estuary dynamics were found to be affected by the SLR along the whole estuarine region, indicating a maritime influence and a worsening of the flood conditions for future scenarios. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-06-20 2022-06-20T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/80148 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/80148 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Iglesias, I.; Bio, A.; Melo, W.; Avilez-Valente, P.; Pinho, J.; Cruz, M.; Gomes, A.; Vieira, J.; Bastos, L.; Veloso-Gomes, F. Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions. Water 2022, 14, 1966. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121966 2073-4441 10.3390/w14121966 1966 https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/12/1966 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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