Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Dimitrov, Preslav
Data de Publicação: 2013
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545
Resumo: Most of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the mountainous municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality, located near Bulgaria’s border with Greece and Turkey, is being presented.
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spelling Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, BulgariaPrevisão de longo prazo do número de chegadas de ecoturistas no município de Stambolovo, BulgáriaForecastingexponential smoothingecotourismMost of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the mountainous municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality, located near Bulgaria’s border with Greece and Turkey, is being presented.A maioria dos municípios rurais búlgaros necessita de basear as suas decisões de investimento em infra-estrutura turísticas em análise preliminar e previsões. O presente trabalho aborda vários problemas na aplicação dos métodos de suavização exponencial com a finalidade de previsão de longo prazo para as necessidades do município montanhoso de Stambolovo, Bulgária, tais como: (i) o problema de determinar o padrão de séries temporais; ou o chamado "perfil de previsão", (ii) a seleção de um método de previsão adequado, (iii) Cálculo das previsões de curto prazo e de longo prazo, e (iv) a comparação entre os resultados das técnicas de previsão com base nos erros das previsões. Apresentamos aqui um modelo especialmente concebido para a estimativa do coeficiente de peso necessário para determinar o tamanho dos setores de turismo rural e ecoturismo deste mesmo município, localizado perto da fronteira da Bulgária com a Grécia e a Turquia.University of Algarve2013-05-27info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545Revista Encontros Científicos - Tourism & Management Studies; v. 9 n. 1 (2013); 41-47Tourism & Management Studies; Vol. 9 N.º 1 (2013); 41-47Tourism & Management Studies; Vol. 9 No. 1 (2013); 41-47Revista Encontros Científicos - Tourism & Management Studies; Vol. 9 Núm. 1 (2013); 41-472182-8466reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545/915Copyright (c) 2016 Tourism & Management Studiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessDimitrov, Preslav2023-12-27T10:25:25Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/545Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T00:56:19.214153Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
Previsão de longo prazo do número de chegadas de ecoturistas no município de Stambolovo, Bulgária
title Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
spellingShingle Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
Dimitrov, Preslav
Forecasting
exponential smoothing
ecotourism
title_short Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
title_full Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
title_fullStr Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
title_full_unstemmed Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
title_sort Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria
author Dimitrov, Preslav
author_facet Dimitrov, Preslav
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Dimitrov, Preslav
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Forecasting
exponential smoothing
ecotourism
topic Forecasting
exponential smoothing
ecotourism
description Most of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the mountainous municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality, located near Bulgaria’s border with Greece and Turkey, is being presented.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-05-27
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545
url https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545
https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545/915
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2016 Tourism & Management Studies
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2016 Tourism & Management Studies
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv University of Algarve
publisher.none.fl_str_mv University of Algarve
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Encontros Científicos - Tourism & Management Studies; v. 9 n. 1 (2013); 41-47
Tourism & Management Studies; Vol. 9 N.º 1 (2013); 41-47
Tourism & Management Studies; Vol. 9 No. 1 (2013); 41-47
Revista Encontros Científicos - Tourism & Management Studies; Vol. 9 Núm. 1 (2013); 41-47
2182-8466
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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