Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5039 |
Resumo: | A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions. |
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Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over PortugalUS Pacific-NorthwestEuropean ClimateSimulationsTemperature20th-CenturyPerformanceProjectionsStatisticsPatternsDatasetA new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.Amer Geophysical UnionRCIPLSoares, Pedro Miguel MatosCardoso, Rita M.Miranda, Pedro M. A.Viterbo, PedroBelo-Pereira, Margarida2015-08-28T14:22:27Z2012-04-142012-04-14T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5039engSOARES, Pedro M. M., [et al] - Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. ISSN: 2169-897X. Vol. 117 (2012), pp. 1-182169-897X10.1029/2011JD016768metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-08-03T09:47:54Zoai:repositorio.ipl.pt:10400.21/5039Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T20:14:22.820346Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal |
title |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal |
spellingShingle |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal Soares, Pedro Miguel Matos US Pacific-Northwest European Climate Simulations Temperature 20th-Century Performance Projections Statistics Patterns Dataset |
title_short |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal |
title_full |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal |
title_sort |
Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal |
author |
Soares, Pedro Miguel Matos |
author_facet |
Soares, Pedro Miguel Matos Cardoso, Rita M. Miranda, Pedro M. A. Viterbo, Pedro Belo-Pereira, Margarida |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cardoso, Rita M. Miranda, Pedro M. A. Viterbo, Pedro Belo-Pereira, Margarida |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
RCIPL |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Soares, Pedro Miguel Matos Cardoso, Rita M. Miranda, Pedro M. A. Viterbo, Pedro Belo-Pereira, Margarida |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
US Pacific-Northwest European Climate Simulations Temperature 20th-Century Performance Projections Statistics Patterns Dataset |
topic |
US Pacific-Northwest European Climate Simulations Temperature 20th-Century Performance Projections Statistics Patterns Dataset |
description |
A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-04-14 2012-04-14T00:00:00Z 2015-08-28T14:22:27Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5039 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5039 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
SOARES, Pedro M. M., [et al] - Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. ISSN: 2169-897X. Vol. 117 (2012), pp. 1-18 2169-897X 10.1029/2011JD016768 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Amer Geophysical Union |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Amer Geophysical Union |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799133401598394368 |