Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1822/72629 |
Resumo: | Volcanic exposure implies multiple hazards for human settlements. The identification of the potential hazards that volcanic activity can entail is a challenge requiring assessing the specific situations that a determined place would face. Popocatépetl, a volcano in the centre of México, represents a significant hazard source, and it is located within a densely populated region with more than 20 million people. Despite the existence of a colour-based volcano alert level system for the current activity of the volcano, it is relevant to assess which local scenarios are more likely depending on numerous variables, namely, related to the distance from the volcano. A semi-quantitative analysis was carried out based on existing hazard maps and considering the probability of occurrence of volcanic explosivity, taking the settlement of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan as a case study. This analysis led to a hierarchised rank of hazards, providing a basis for analysing multiple scenarios through failure mode and event analysis, failure tree analysis and event tree analysis. This process facilitates the contextualisation of the multiple challenges and potential chains of events that emergency actions, namely, emergency evacuations, would face. The analysis of the critical paths can help to identify critical aspects that could hinder the post-event response. |
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Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro TlalmimilulpanEvacuation scenarios analysisVolcanoFailure mode and event analysisFailure tree analysisEvent tree analysisVolcanic exposure implies multiple hazards for human settlements. The identification of the potential hazards that volcanic activity can entail is a challenge requiring assessing the specific situations that a determined place would face. Popocatépetl, a volcano in the centre of México, represents a significant hazard source, and it is located within a densely populated region with more than 20 million people. Despite the existence of a colour-based volcano alert level system for the current activity of the volcano, it is relevant to assess which local scenarios are more likely depending on numerous variables, namely, related to the distance from the volcano. A semi-quantitative analysis was carried out based on existing hazard maps and considering the probability of occurrence of volcanic explosivity, taking the settlement of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan as a case study. This analysis led to a hierarchised rank of hazards, providing a basis for analysing multiple scenarios through failure mode and event analysis, failure tree analysis and event tree analysis. This process facilitates the contextualisation of the multiple challenges and potential chains of events that emergency actions, namely, emergency evacuations, would face. The analysis of the critical paths can help to identify critical aspects that could hinder the post-event response.This research was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through the grant number PD/BD/150385/2019.Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)Universidade do MinhoRamírez Eudave, RafaelFerreira, Tiago Miguel2021-01-252021-01-25T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/72629engRamírez Eudave, R.; Ferreira, T.M. Towards a Semi-Quantitative Approach for Assessing Evacuation Scenarios in the Context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México—The Case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan. GeoHazards 2021, 2, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards20100012624-795X10.3390/geohazards2010001https://www.mdpi.com/2624-795X/2/1/1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:03:56Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/72629Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:54:07.245358Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan |
title |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan |
spellingShingle |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan Ramírez Eudave, Rafael Evacuation scenarios analysis Volcano Failure mode and event analysis Failure tree analysis Event tree analysis |
title_short |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan |
title_full |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan |
title_fullStr |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan |
title_sort |
Towards a semi-quantitative approach for assessing evacuation scenarios in the context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México - The case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan |
author |
Ramírez Eudave, Rafael |
author_facet |
Ramírez Eudave, Rafael Ferreira, Tiago Miguel |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ferreira, Tiago Miguel |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ramírez Eudave, Rafael Ferreira, Tiago Miguel |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Evacuation scenarios analysis Volcano Failure mode and event analysis Failure tree analysis Event tree analysis |
topic |
Evacuation scenarios analysis Volcano Failure mode and event analysis Failure tree analysis Event tree analysis |
description |
Volcanic exposure implies multiple hazards for human settlements. The identification of the potential hazards that volcanic activity can entail is a challenge requiring assessing the specific situations that a determined place would face. Popocatépetl, a volcano in the centre of México, represents a significant hazard source, and it is located within a densely populated region with more than 20 million people. Despite the existence of a colour-based volcano alert level system for the current activity of the volcano, it is relevant to assess which local scenarios are more likely depending on numerous variables, namely, related to the distance from the volcano. A semi-quantitative analysis was carried out based on existing hazard maps and considering the probability of occurrence of volcanic explosivity, taking the settlement of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan as a case study. This analysis led to a hierarchised rank of hazards, providing a basis for analysing multiple scenarios through failure mode and event analysis, failure tree analysis and event tree analysis. This process facilitates the contextualisation of the multiple challenges and potential chains of events that emergency actions, namely, emergency evacuations, would face. The analysis of the critical paths can help to identify critical aspects that could hinder the post-event response. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-01-25 2021-01-25T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/72629 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/72629 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Ramírez Eudave, R.; Ferreira, T.M. Towards a Semi-Quantitative Approach for Assessing Evacuation Scenarios in the Context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México—The Case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan. GeoHazards 2021, 2, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards2010001 2624-795X 10.3390/geohazards2010001 https://www.mdpi.com/2624-795X/2/1/1 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799132322597961728 |