Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp.
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFSCAR |
Texto Completo: | https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/12687 |
Resumo: | The correct inference of growth and forest production are important factors for decision making in planning, with different models based on regression statistics. These models are used to determine the technical and economic age of the cut, to generate production tables for the stands and growth curves. Due to its importance and the search for more accurate estimates, the development of more complex models has been applied in the forestry sector, among which we can mention the mixed modeling and the use of quantile regression. The aim of this work was to evaluate the use of a new technique using linear mixed models with quantile regression in the projection of growth and production in an eucalyptus stand and also to compare the volumetric estimates with those obtained by the traditional Clutter model and mixed modelling. The data came from a clonal Eucalytpus spp. stand, located in the interior of São Paulo state, aged between 24 and 64 months. Adjustments to the equations of the Clutter model, as well as the mixed-effect models and the linear mixed-effect models with quantile regression, as well as the linear mixed model with quantile regression and mixed-effect models were performed using the statistical software R. To check the accuracy of the methods, the last measurement was selected as a reference and, based on this, classes of projection periods were created at 12-month intervals, which are: (6,18], (18,30] and (30,42] months. The evaluation was carried out through the residual plot, as well as through the square root of the average error (RMSE %). It was found that the mixed model and linear mixed model with quantile regression obtained a lower RMSE of 3.94% and 4.20%, respectively, for (6,18] month class. For the classes (18.30] and (30.42) months, the traditional Clutter model that presented lower values of RMSE, being 4.28% and 4.75%, respectively. After the analyzes were carried out, it was defined that for the class of (6,18) months the use of the linear mixed model with quantile regression due to the RMSE is indicated and also present the best dispersion of the residues. For the classes (18,30] months, despite the traditional Clutter model presenting the lowest RMSE, after analyzing the dispersion of the residues it was found that the use of the mixed model is the most suitable due to better dispersion, and for the class of ( 30,42] months, the traditional model of Clutter is the most suitable. |
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Almeida, Alessandro Araujo Amaral deThiersch, Cláudio Robertohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8791966697254106http://lattes.cnpq.br/45521028212080402020-05-08T11:37:24Z2020-05-08T11:37:24Z2020-04-03ALMEIDA, Alessandro Araujo Amaral de. Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp.. 2020. Dissertação (Mestrado em Planejamento e Uso de Recursos Renováveis) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2020. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/12687.https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/12687The correct inference of growth and forest production are important factors for decision making in planning, with different models based on regression statistics. These models are used to determine the technical and economic age of the cut, to generate production tables for the stands and growth curves. Due to its importance and the search for more accurate estimates, the development of more complex models has been applied in the forestry sector, among which we can mention the mixed modeling and the use of quantile regression. The aim of this work was to evaluate the use of a new technique using linear mixed models with quantile regression in the projection of growth and production in an eucalyptus stand and also to compare the volumetric estimates with those obtained by the traditional Clutter model and mixed modelling. The data came from a clonal Eucalytpus spp. stand, located in the interior of São Paulo state, aged between 24 and 64 months. Adjustments to the equations of the Clutter model, as well as the mixed-effect models and the linear mixed-effect models with quantile regression, as well as the linear mixed model with quantile regression and mixed-effect models were performed using the statistical software R. To check the accuracy of the methods, the last measurement was selected as a reference and, based on this, classes of projection periods were created at 12-month intervals, which are: (6,18], (18,30] and (30,42] months. The evaluation was carried out through the residual plot, as well as through the square root of the average error (RMSE %). It was found that the mixed model and linear mixed model with quantile regression obtained a lower RMSE of 3.94% and 4.20%, respectively, for (6,18] month class. For the classes (18.30] and (30.42) months, the traditional Clutter model that presented lower values of RMSE, being 4.28% and 4.75%, respectively. After the analyzes were carried out, it was defined that for the class of (6,18) months the use of the linear mixed model with quantile regression due to the RMSE is indicated and also present the best dispersion of the residues. For the classes (18,30] months, despite the traditional Clutter model presenting the lowest RMSE, after analyzing the dispersion of the residues it was found that the use of the mixed model is the most suitable due to better dispersion, and for the class of ( 30,42] months, the traditional model of Clutter is the most suitable.A inferência correta do crescimento e da produção florestal são fatores importantes para tomadas de decisões no planejamento, existindo diferentes modelos baseados em estatísticas de regressão. Esses modelos são utilizados para determinação da idade técnica e econômica de corte, para gerar tabelas de produção dos povoamentos e curvas de crescimento. Devido a sua importância e a busca por estimativas mais precisas, o desenvolvimento de modelos mais complexos vem sendo aplicado no setor florestal, dentre os quais pode citar a modelagem mista e uso da regressão quantílica. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o uso de uma nova técnica utilizando modelos mistos lineares com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção em um povoamento de eucalipto e também comparar as estimativas volumétricas com as obtidas pelo modelo de Clutter tradicional e modelagem mista. Os dados foram provenientes de um plantio clonal de eucalipto, localizado no interior de São Paulo, com idade entre 24 a 64 meses. Os ajustes das equações do modelo de Clutter, bem como do modelo linear misto com regressão quantílica e modelos mistos foram realizados no software estatístico R. Para verificar a acurácia dos métodos, selecionou-se a última medição como referência e, a partir desta, criou-se classes de períodos de projeção em intervalos de 12 meses, sendo estas de: (6,18], (18,30] e (30,42] meses. A avaliação foi realizada através do gráfico de dispersão dos resíduos, bem como por meio da raiz quadrada do erro médio (RMSE %). Verificou-se que o modelo misto e modelo linear misto com regressão quantílica obtiveram um menor RMSE de 3,94% e 4,20%, respectivamente, para classe de (6,18] meses. Já para as classes (18,30] e (30,42) meses o modelo de Clutter tradicional que apresentou menores valores de RMSE, sendo 4,28% e 4,75%, respectivamente. Após realizada as análises, definiu-se que para classe de (6,18) meses é indicado o uso do modelo linear misto com regressão quantílica devido ao RMSE e também apresentar a melhor dispersão dos resíduos. Para as classes (18,30] meses, apesar do modelo de Clutter tradicional apresentar o menor RMSE, após a análise da dispersão dos resíduos verificou-se que o uso do modelo misto é o mais indicado devido melhor dispersão, e para classe de (30,42] meses o modelo tradicional de Clutter é o mais indicado.Não recebi financiamentoporUniversidade Federal de São CarlosCâmpus SorocabaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Planejamento e Uso de Recursos Renováveis - PPGPUR-SoUFSCarAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBiometria FlorestalModelos de crescimento e produçãoModelos mistosRegressão quantílicaForest BiometricsModeling of growth and productionMixed modelsQuantile regressionCIENCIAS AGRARIAS::RECURSOS FLORESTAIS E ENGENHARIA FLORESTAL::MANEJO FLORESTALAplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp.Application of linear mixed models with quantitative regression in the growth and production projection of Eucalyptus spp.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSCARinstname:Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR)instacron:UFSCARORIGINALAlessandro_dissertacao_final.pdfAlessandro_dissertacao_final.pdfapplication/pdf1295324https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/12687/1/Alessandro_dissertacao_final.pdf11f145513af4f3067a6031ade3bace8dMD51carta-comprovante.pdfcarta-comprovante.pdfapplication/pdf241054https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/12687/2/carta-comprovante.pdf2d75540a8331ea037919ccf4217ee05cMD52CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8811https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/12687/3/license_rdfe39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34MD53TEXTAlessandro_dissertacao_final.pdf.txtAlessandro_dissertacao_final.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain73920https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/12687/4/Alessandro_dissertacao_final.pdf.txt91401271001d1bb4e2199b9bf8071d2eMD54carta-comprovante.pdf.txtcarta-comprovante.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain1216https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/12687/6/carta-comprovante.pdf.txtd88bbfa0241b49f94c12fa3159a3380fMD56THUMBNAILAlessandro_dissertacao_final.pdf.jpgAlessandro_dissertacao_final.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg6667https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/12687/5/Alessandro_dissertacao_final.pdf.jpgd34cfcb8d8b2f80005788f37a79a7f57MD55carta-comprovante.pdf.jpgcarta-comprovante.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg14991https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/12687/7/carta-comprovante.pdf.jpged016c0079b9226df5eb9f2cbcce00afMD57ufscar/126872020-07-08 22:01:58.679oai:repositorio.ufscar.br:ufscar/12687Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufscar.br/oai/requestopendoar:43222020-07-08T22:01:58Repositório Institucional da UFSCAR - Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. |
dc.title.alternative.por.fl_str_mv |
Application of linear mixed models with quantitative regression in the growth and production projection of Eucalyptus spp. |
title |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. |
spellingShingle |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. Almeida, Alessandro Araujo Amaral de Biometria Florestal Modelos de crescimento e produção Modelos mistos Regressão quantílica Forest Biometrics Modeling of growth and production Mixed models Quantile regression CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::RECURSOS FLORESTAIS E ENGENHARIA FLORESTAL::MANEJO FLORESTAL |
title_short |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. |
title_full |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. |
title_fullStr |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. |
title_sort |
Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp. |
author |
Almeida, Alessandro Araujo Amaral de |
author_facet |
Almeida, Alessandro Araujo Amaral de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.authorlattes.por.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4552102821208040 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, Alessandro Araujo Amaral de |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Thiersch, Cláudio Roberto |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8791966697254106 |
contributor_str_mv |
Thiersch, Cláudio Roberto |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Biometria Florestal Modelos de crescimento e produção Modelos mistos Regressão quantílica Forest Biometrics Modeling of growth and production Mixed models Quantile regression |
topic |
Biometria Florestal Modelos de crescimento e produção Modelos mistos Regressão quantílica Forest Biometrics Modeling of growth and production Mixed models Quantile regression CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::RECURSOS FLORESTAIS E ENGENHARIA FLORESTAL::MANEJO FLORESTAL |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::RECURSOS FLORESTAIS E ENGENHARIA FLORESTAL::MANEJO FLORESTAL |
description |
The correct inference of growth and forest production are important factors for decision making in planning, with different models based on regression statistics. These models are used to determine the technical and economic age of the cut, to generate production tables for the stands and growth curves. Due to its importance and the search for more accurate estimates, the development of more complex models has been applied in the forestry sector, among which we can mention the mixed modeling and the use of quantile regression. The aim of this work was to evaluate the use of a new technique using linear mixed models with quantile regression in the projection of growth and production in an eucalyptus stand and also to compare the volumetric estimates with those obtained by the traditional Clutter model and mixed modelling. The data came from a clonal Eucalytpus spp. stand, located in the interior of São Paulo state, aged between 24 and 64 months. Adjustments to the equations of the Clutter model, as well as the mixed-effect models and the linear mixed-effect models with quantile regression, as well as the linear mixed model with quantile regression and mixed-effect models were performed using the statistical software R. To check the accuracy of the methods, the last measurement was selected as a reference and, based on this, classes of projection periods were created at 12-month intervals, which are: (6,18], (18,30] and (30,42] months. The evaluation was carried out through the residual plot, as well as through the square root of the average error (RMSE %). It was found that the mixed model and linear mixed model with quantile regression obtained a lower RMSE of 3.94% and 4.20%, respectively, for (6,18] month class. For the classes (18.30] and (30.42) months, the traditional Clutter model that presented lower values of RMSE, being 4.28% and 4.75%, respectively. After the analyzes were carried out, it was defined that for the class of (6,18) months the use of the linear mixed model with quantile regression due to the RMSE is indicated and also present the best dispersion of the residues. For the classes (18,30] months, despite the traditional Clutter model presenting the lowest RMSE, after analyzing the dispersion of the residues it was found that the use of the mixed model is the most suitable due to better dispersion, and for the class of ( 30,42] months, the traditional model of Clutter is the most suitable. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-08T11:37:24Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-08T11:37:24Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2020-04-03 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
ALMEIDA, Alessandro Araujo Amaral de. Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp.. 2020. Dissertação (Mestrado em Planejamento e Uso de Recursos Renováveis) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2020. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/12687. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/12687 |
identifier_str_mv |
ALMEIDA, Alessandro Araujo Amaral de. Aplicação de modelos lineares mistos com regressão quantílica na projeção do crescimento e produção de Eucalyptus spp.. 2020. Dissertação (Mestrado em Planejamento e Uso de Recursos Renováveis) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2020. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/12687. |
url |
https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/12687 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/ |
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openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de São Carlos Câmpus Sorocaba |
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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Planejamento e Uso de Recursos Renováveis - PPGPUR-So |
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UFSCar |
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Universidade Federal de São Carlos Câmpus Sorocaba |
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