Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFOP |
Texto Completo: | http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/10922 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub |
Resumo: | By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25–50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57 years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961–90 long-termaverage.Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been belowits long-termaverage every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be evenmore severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC highemissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production. |
id |
UFOP_f94b2ee9c36e9bd11350967124df8765 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:localhost:123456789/10922 |
network_acronym_str |
UFOP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFOP |
repository_id_str |
3233 |
spelling |
Jong, Pieter deTanajura, Clemente Augusto SouzaSánchez, Antonio SantosDargaville, RogerKiperstok, AsherTorres, Ednildo Andrade2019-04-03T16:07:26Z2019-04-03T16:07:26Z2018JONG, P de. et al.; Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. Science of the Total Environment, v. 634, p. 1540-1553, 2018. Disponível em: <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub>. Acesso em: 15 fev. 2019.00489697http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/10922https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3DihubBy the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25–50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57 years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961–90 long-termaverage.Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been belowits long-termaverage every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be evenmore severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC highemissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.RainfallStreamflowRenewable energyDroughtHydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessengreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFOPinstname:Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP)instacron:UFOPLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-8924http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/bitstream/123456789/10922/2/license.txt62604f8d955274beb56c80ce1ee5dcaeMD52ORIGINALARTIGO_HydroeletricProductionBrazil.pdfARTIGO_HydroeletricProductionBrazil.pdfapplication/pdf4521136http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/bitstream/123456789/10922/1/ARTIGO_HydroeletricProductionBrazil.pdffe1918653abbc65d32dde0120e5b0cfdMD51123456789/109222019-04-03 12:07:26.35oai:localhost: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/oai/requestrepositorio@ufop.edu.bropendoar:32332019-04-03T16:07:26Repositório Institucional da UFOP - Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. |
title |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. |
spellingShingle |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. Jong, Pieter de Rainfall Streamflow Renewable energy Drought |
title_short |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. |
title_full |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. |
title_fullStr |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. |
title_sort |
Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. |
author |
Jong, Pieter de |
author_facet |
Jong, Pieter de Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza Sánchez, Antonio Santos Dargaville, Roger Kiperstok, Asher Torres, Ednildo Andrade |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza Sánchez, Antonio Santos Dargaville, Roger Kiperstok, Asher Torres, Ednildo Andrade |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Jong, Pieter de Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza Sánchez, Antonio Santos Dargaville, Roger Kiperstok, Asher Torres, Ednildo Andrade |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Rainfall Streamflow Renewable energy Drought |
topic |
Rainfall Streamflow Renewable energy Drought |
description |
By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25–50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57 years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961–90 long-termaverage.Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been belowits long-termaverage every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be evenmore severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC highemissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2019-04-03T16:07:26Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2019-04-03T16:07:26Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
JONG, P de. et al.; Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. Science of the Total Environment, v. 634, p. 1540-1553, 2018. Disponível em: <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub>. Acesso em: 15 fev. 2019. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/10922 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv |
00489697 |
dc.identifier.uri2.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub |
identifier_str_mv |
JONG, P de. et al.; Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. Science of the Total Environment, v. 634, p. 1540-1553, 2018. Disponível em: <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub>. Acesso em: 15 fev. 2019. 00489697 |
url |
http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/10922 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFOP instname:Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP) instacron:UFOP |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP) |
instacron_str |
UFOP |
institution |
UFOP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFOP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UFOP |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/bitstream/123456789/10922/2/license.txt http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/bitstream/123456789/10922/1/ARTIGO_HydroeletricProductionBrazil.pdf |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
62604f8d955274beb56c80ce1ee5dcae fe1918653abbc65d32dde0120e5b0cfd |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UFOP - Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
repositorio@ufop.edu.br |
_version_ |
1797950127639363584 |