Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029
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Publication Date: | 2018 |
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | eng |
Source: | Repositório Institucional da UFRN |
Download full: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/54974 https://doi.org/10.1590/S0004-2803.201800000-59 |
Summary: | Pancreatic cancer is one of the main cancer-related causes of death in developed countries, and one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms. This type of cancer is classified as the ninth most frequent in the world. Objective – Analyze temporal trends for pancreatic cancer in Brazil in the period 2000-2014 and calculate mortality projections for the period 2015-2029. Methods – Ecological study, with temporal series, based on information provided by the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Analysis included deaths due to pancreatic malignant neoplasms in Brazil in the period 2000-2014, and analyzed according to sex, age group and Brazilian geographic regions. Projections were made until 2029 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software). Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. Results – Between 2000 and 2014, there were 112,533 deaths due to pancreatic cancer in Brazil. Age-standardised rates was 5.1 deaths/100,000 men and 3.81 deaths/100,000 women. The highest rates were registered for the Midwest region, for both genders. Projections indicated that for the five-year period 2025-2029 there will be increased mortality rates for men in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Joinpoint analysis for Brazil did not reveal significant increases for women (APC=0.4%; 95% CI: -0.2; 1.0), however, there was a significant increasing mortality trend for men (APC= 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.6-7.0) in the period 2000-2004, followed by a stable period, an then another period of significant increases after 2010. These figures are mostly explained by variations in the Brazilian demographic structure. Conclusion – Pancreatic cancer mortality is unequally distributed across Brazilian regions and genders, and during the next two decades the differences will be accentuated |
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Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra deSantos, Camila Alves dosBarbosa, Isabelle Ribeirohttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8426-31202023-10-11T20:05:54Z2023-10-11T20:05:54Z2018SOUZA, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de; BARBOSA, Isabelle Ribeiro; SANTOS, Camila Alves dos. PANCREATIC CANCER IN BRAZIL: mortality trends and projections until 2029. Arquivos de Gastroenterologia, [S.L.], v. 55, n. 3, p. 230-236, set. 2018. FapUNIFESP (SciELO). http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0004-2803.201800000-59. Disponível em: https://www.scielo.br/j/ag/a/QhLS6XbnJqdXdmWN6XGNMtC/?lang=en. Acesso em: 13 set. 2018.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/54974https://doi.org/10.1590/S0004-2803.201800000-59FapUNIFESP (SciELO)Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesspancreatic neoplasmsmortalityforecastingdemographyPancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlePancreatic cancer is one of the main cancer-related causes of death in developed countries, and one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms. This type of cancer is classified as the ninth most frequent in the world. Objective – Analyze temporal trends for pancreatic cancer in Brazil in the period 2000-2014 and calculate mortality projections for the period 2015-2029. Methods – Ecological study, with temporal series, based on information provided by the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Analysis included deaths due to pancreatic malignant neoplasms in Brazil in the period 2000-2014, and analyzed according to sex, age group and Brazilian geographic regions. Projections were made until 2029 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software). Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. Results – Between 2000 and 2014, there were 112,533 deaths due to pancreatic cancer in Brazil. Age-standardised rates was 5.1 deaths/100,000 men and 3.81 deaths/100,000 women. The highest rates were registered for the Midwest region, for both genders. Projections indicated that for the five-year period 2025-2029 there will be increased mortality rates for men in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Joinpoint analysis for Brazil did not reveal significant increases for women (APC=0.4%; 95% CI: -0.2; 1.0), however, there was a significant increasing mortality trend for men (APC= 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.6-7.0) in the period 2000-2004, followed by a stable period, an then another period of significant increases after 2010. These figures are mostly explained by variations in the Brazilian demographic structure. Conclusion – Pancreatic cancer mortality is unequally distributed across Brazilian regions and genders, and during the next two decades the differences will be accentuatedengreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRNinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)instacron:UFRNORIGINALPancreaticCancerBrazil_Souza_2018.pdfPancreaticCancerBrazil_Souza_2018.pdfapplication/pdf1004607https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/54974/1/PancreaticCancerBrazil_Souza_2018.pdf839652d50790759d080fec8ba11bc3b2MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8920https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/54974/2/license_rdf728dfda2fa81b274c619d08d1dfc1a03MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81484https://repositorio.ufrn.br/bitstream/123456789/54974/3/license.txte9597aa2854d128fd968be5edc8a28d9MD53123456789/549742023-10-11 17:05:55.939oai:https://repositorio.ufrn.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttp://repositorio.ufrn.br/oai/opendoar:2023-10-11T20:05:55Repositório Institucional da UFRN - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 |
title |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 |
spellingShingle |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de pancreatic neoplasms mortality forecasting demography |
title_short |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 |
title_full |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 |
title_fullStr |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 |
title_sort |
Pancreatic cancer in Brazil: mortality trends and projections until 2029 |
author |
Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de |
author_facet |
Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de Santos, Camila Alves dos Barbosa, Isabelle Ribeiro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Santos, Camila Alves dos Barbosa, Isabelle Ribeiro |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.authorID.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8426-3120 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de Santos, Camila Alves dos Barbosa, Isabelle Ribeiro |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
pancreatic neoplasms mortality forecasting demography |
topic |
pancreatic neoplasms mortality forecasting demography |
description |
Pancreatic cancer is one of the main cancer-related causes of death in developed countries, and one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms. This type of cancer is classified as the ninth most frequent in the world. Objective – Analyze temporal trends for pancreatic cancer in Brazil in the period 2000-2014 and calculate mortality projections for the period 2015-2029. Methods – Ecological study, with temporal series, based on information provided by the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Analysis included deaths due to pancreatic malignant neoplasms in Brazil in the period 2000-2014, and analyzed according to sex, age group and Brazilian geographic regions. Projections were made until 2029 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software). Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. Results – Between 2000 and 2014, there were 112,533 deaths due to pancreatic cancer in Brazil. Age-standardised rates was 5.1 deaths/100,000 men and 3.81 deaths/100,000 women. The highest rates were registered for the Midwest region, for both genders. Projections indicated that for the five-year period 2025-2029 there will be increased mortality rates for men in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Joinpoint analysis for Brazil did not reveal significant increases for women (APC=0.4%; 95% CI: -0.2; 1.0), however, there was a significant increasing mortality trend for men (APC= 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.6-7.0) in the period 2000-2004, followed by a stable period, an then another period of significant increases after 2010. These figures are mostly explained by variations in the Brazilian demographic structure. Conclusion – Pancreatic cancer mortality is unequally distributed across Brazilian regions and genders, and during the next two decades the differences will be accentuated |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-10-11T20:05:54Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-10-11T20:05:54Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SOUZA, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de; BARBOSA, Isabelle Ribeiro; SANTOS, Camila Alves dos. PANCREATIC CANCER IN BRAZIL: mortality trends and projections until 2029. Arquivos de Gastroenterologia, [S.L.], v. 55, n. 3, p. 230-236, set. 2018. FapUNIFESP (SciELO). http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0004-2803.201800000-59. Disponível em: https://www.scielo.br/j/ag/a/QhLS6XbnJqdXdmWN6XGNMtC/?lang=en. Acesso em: 13 set. 2018. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/54974 |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0004-2803.201800000-59 |
identifier_str_mv |
SOUZA, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de; BARBOSA, Isabelle Ribeiro; SANTOS, Camila Alves dos. PANCREATIC CANCER IN BRAZIL: mortality trends and projections until 2029. Arquivos de Gastroenterologia, [S.L.], v. 55, n. 3, p. 230-236, set. 2018. FapUNIFESP (SciELO). http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0004-2803.201800000-59. Disponível em: https://www.scielo.br/j/ag/a/QhLS6XbnJqdXdmWN6XGNMtC/?lang=en. Acesso em: 13 set. 2018. |
url |
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/54974 https://doi.org/10.1590/S0004-2803.201800000-59 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/br/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/br/ |
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openAccess |
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FapUNIFESP (SciELO) |
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FapUNIFESP (SciELO) |
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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) |
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