Cat?strofes naturais no estado do Rio de Janeiro baseado em dados clim?ticos e produtos orbitais: uma abordagem estat?stica

• Autor(a) principal: Gois, Givanildo de
• Data de Publicação: 2017
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRRJ
• Texto Completo: https://tede.ufrrj.br/jspui/handle/jspui/1966
• topic: Time series; Statistical Tests; Drought; Meteorological Systems; Climatic Variability; S?rie temporal; Testes estat?sticos; Seca; Sistemas meteorol?gicos; Variabilidade clim?tica; Geoci?ncias

Few studies were based on the areas of Physical and Statistical Climatology applied to the state of Rio de Janeiro (ERJ), focused on natural disasters (droughts, floods and desertification) based on climatic data and orbital products. The time series used were 47 years (1967 to 2013) and 71 years (1943 to 2013). Both series come from 100 existing stations belonging to ANA, CPRM, INMET, SERLA and LIGHT. The temporal series (raw data) were faulty and were filled with TRMM satellite 3B43 product (1998 to 2013) and INMET climatological norm (1947 to 1997). The series were submitted to descriptive, exploratory, parametric (Shapiro-Wilks-SW and Barlett-B), non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall-MK, Sen-Se, Pettitt and SOCUM), Box Cox transformation and analysis Grouping (AA). In addition, monthly data from the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) between 2001- 2012 with the objective of verifying the trend of increase and decrease of vegetation in the ERJ by non-parametric tests and future scenarios by the Markov Chain. Estimation of the monthly mean air temperature (Tmi) in the ERJ based on observed series and reanalyses or the composition of both, and being adjusted to the three-base linear multiple regression (RLM) and linear regression models: Bases 1 Reanalysis / NCEP), 2 (INMET / NCDC) and 3 (Reanalysis / NCEP and INMET / NCDC) between 1948 and 2015. Descriptive analysis showed a probability of occurrence above 75%. The SW and B tests presented a low significance level for p-value (? < 5%) and the hypothesis of normality and homogeneity of variances in the stations was rejected. The Box Cox transformation was effective in stabilizing the residue normality and homogeneity of variance of the monthly rainfall series of the Middle Para?ba and Serrana regions, except for the Northwest Fluminense. The high variability of ? (0.326 to 0.565) is due to the fact that most of the stations are in the Sierra do Mar slope facing the mainland, where rainfall is influenced by the interaction of topography with local and synoptic systems, only one season In the Serra do Mar slope facing the Atlantic Ocean with influence of the coastal environment and the mesoscale and synoptic systems, in the series of 71 years. Based on AA were chosen 11 stations with normality or homogeneity of variance characterized two homogeneous pluviometric groups (G1 and G2) in the ERJ. For the trend analysis, the MK test and method were shown the presence of non significant trends of rainfall increase in the annual and seasonal scales. Pettitt and SOCUM were efficient in identifying the years of possible non-significant or insignificant abrupt changes in the 71-year time series. The SOCUM test identified 39 ENSO events in groups G1 and G2. The highest percentage in the neutral events (48.72%) and the lowest in the moderate El Ni?o and La Ni?a weak and strong (5.13%). An insignificant trend of vegetation growth is observed at 75%, followed by a significant downward trend of 25% of the ERJ Government regions. The Pettitt test showed the existence of abrupt changes not significant (NS), both growth and vegetation decrease in 6 regions and significant (S) decrease in 2 regions. The predictions of changes ranging from 1 to 2 years at constant intervals (3 to 10 years) were observed in all future scenarios. Bases 1 and 2 presented the highest number of significant coefficients, according to the F test for (p-value <0.05), the exception was Base 3. The latitude variable (?1) was more significant, followed by altitude (?3 ) In all Bases. Significant values of r2 (> 0.80) and r (> 0.90) in Base 2 and Base 1 with r2 (> 0.50) and r (> 0.70). The adjusted RLM models explained most of the spatial variability of Tmi for the ERJ. The parametric tests of SW and B applied to the monthly rainfall series without treatment and to the reduced variable the normal distribution standardized to 95% of probability point to the hypotheses of non-normality and neither homogeneity of the time series. The high sensitivity of the rainfall series to the B test were observed in the eight Government regions, due to the rigor of the test. The lambda coefficients of the Box Cox transformation applied to the monthly rainfall series for data without treatment and the reduced variable of the standardized normal distribution do not present efficiency in the stabilization of the homogeneity of the variances. Confirmed by the test of B, in 99.58% and 100% of the events. The efficiency found only in the stabilization of normality in 81.33% and 81.58% of the monthly cumulative frequencies of data without treatment and the reduced variable. Moderate performance of SPI methods with untreated and Box Cox versus SPI-transformed data with reduced-box data transformed by Box Cox is evident in SPI-1, which shows the presence of significant variations of statistical parameters in the Norte, Costa Verde, Baixada Litor?nea e Metropolitana shortage, followed by low performance of the r2 coefficient in the ERJ regions. SPI-12 shows a significant high dispersion of the coefficient r, followed by a low to very low performance, and a low coefficient r2. This indicates poor accuracy of SPI index estimates in both methods. The EPE and RMSE errors do not present significant variations, in the durations of 1 and 12 months. A high variation of the rec coefficients with the index d in the SPI-1 month is verified, a poor performance of the methods with data without treatment and with transformed by Box Cox versus SPI with data of the reduced variable transformed by Box Cox, for the SPI-12 Was verified in the ERJ regions. The temporal / annual analyzes of SPI-1 and 12 in the regions show a high variability and greater intensity of SPI-1, unlike SPI-12. SPI-1 and SPI-12 in the regions show similarity in the behavior of SPI-1 and SPI-12, where the highest and lowest frequencies of droughts categorized as moderately, extremely and extremely dry were recorded in the 70, 80, 90, 2000 and in the period 2010/2013, except for the 60. Events of ENOS were observed in the study period. The Pettitt test identified the years of changes in the SPI-12 index, in 1977 (El Ni?o weak), 1984 (La Ni?a weak), 1989 (Neutral), 1992 (Neutral) and 2002 (Moderate El Ni?o). The prevailing category was close to normal in the Norte Fluminense, Baixadas Litor?neas and Costa Verde regions, followed in the other regions of Government in some parts (SW), (SSW) (SE) and (NE). The moderately dry category occurred in the regions, Metropolitana, Centro Sul Fluminense, M?dio Para?ba, Serrana and NoroesteFluminense, and the other parts in the (SW), (NW) and (NNE) portions of the ERJ. In short, the application of statistical, parametric and non-parametric tests, chain of markov, multivariate analysis are efficient tools in the evaluation of natural disasters in the ERJ.