Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10275 |
Resumo: | The meteorological systems modulate the behavior of rainfall and temperature on large regions and must be correctly simulated by the climate models. The representation of these events should be good for the reliability model to be higher. This research therefore has the primary aim of examining how atmospheric blocks and frontal systems are being detected. Was used for this, the model of the British Center, HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System) in two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the future (2020-2049) projections series, comparing them with series of reference for the past 30 years (1975-2004). The results will be validated from those already found by other studies. For the blocks, the detection method proposed by Pelly e Hoskins (2003), in which find meridionaly anomalous variations of potential temperature in the dynamical tropopause. Frontal systems were found by frontogenetic function first proposed by Petterssen (1956). Moreover, the study of changes in rainfall, simulated by RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) model for the South and Southeast regions of Brazil is made. The main results show that there good agreement between the annual cycle and positioning of both systems by the model on past. There is a reduction of blocking systems on Central Pacific (170.0◦W-120◦W) and increased over the same region of the Southeast Pacific (117.5◦W-80◦W) and the Southwest Atlantic (77.5◦W-40◦W) in both future scenarios. The frontal systems, which also show a good agreement in the reference series, have a tendency to increase the frequency in the two studied regions. Likewise the accumulated rainfall simulated on RegCM4 indicating to be more significant in summer, fall and spring seasons and behavior similar to that reported previously for the winter months. |
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2017-03-012017-03-012014-02-20PEDROSO, Diego. Atmospheric blockings and frontal systems over South America in future climate scenarios. 2014. 93 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Geociências) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2014.http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10275The meteorological systems modulate the behavior of rainfall and temperature on large regions and must be correctly simulated by the climate models. The representation of these events should be good for the reliability model to be higher. This research therefore has the primary aim of examining how atmospheric blocks and frontal systems are being detected. Was used for this, the model of the British Center, HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System) in two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the future (2020-2049) projections series, comparing them with series of reference for the past 30 years (1975-2004). The results will be validated from those already found by other studies. For the blocks, the detection method proposed by Pelly e Hoskins (2003), in which find meridionaly anomalous variations of potential temperature in the dynamical tropopause. Frontal systems were found by frontogenetic function first proposed by Petterssen (1956). Moreover, the study of changes in rainfall, simulated by RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) model for the South and Southeast regions of Brazil is made. The main results show that there good agreement between the annual cycle and positioning of both systems by the model on past. There is a reduction of blocking systems on Central Pacific (170.0◦W-120◦W) and increased over the same region of the Southeast Pacific (117.5◦W-80◦W) and the Southwest Atlantic (77.5◦W-40◦W) in both future scenarios. The frontal systems, which also show a good agreement in the reference series, have a tendency to increase the frequency in the two studied regions. Likewise the accumulated rainfall simulated on RegCM4 indicating to be more significant in summer, fall and spring seasons and behavior similar to that reported previously for the winter months.A atuação de sistemas meteorológicos modula o comportamento das chuvas e da temperatura de grandes regiões, devendo ser corretamente simulados pelos modelos climáticos. A representação dos sistemas deve ser consideravelmente boa para que a confiabilidade no modelo seja mais alta. Esta pesquisa, portanto, tem o principal objetivo de analisar como bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais estão sendo reproduzidos por estes modelos. Foi utilizado para isso, o modelo do centro britânico, o HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System) em dois cenários de mudança climática, o RCP4.5 e o RCP8.5, em séries de projeções futuras (2020-2049), comparando-os com uma série de referência de 30 anos para o passado (1975-2004). Os resultados encontrados serão validados a partir daqueles já encontrados por outros estudos. Para os bloqueios, o método usado é o proposto por Pelly e Hoskins (2003), em que se buscam variações meridionalmente anômalas de temperatura potencial na tropopausa dinâmica. Já os sistemas frontais foram encontrados através da função frontogenética proposta inicialmente por Petterssen (1956). Além disso, é feito o estudo da alteração no regime de chuvas, simulados pelo modelo RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) para as regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil. Os principais resultados mostram que existe uma boa concordância entre o ciclo anual e o posicionamento de ambos os sistemas pelo modelo no passado. Verifica-se uma redução dos sistemas de bloqueio sobre a região do Pacífico Central (170.0◦W-120◦W) e um aumento dos mesmos sobre a região do Pacífico Sudeste (117.5◦W-80◦W) e do Atlântico Sudoeste (77.5◦W-40◦W) em ambos os cenários futuros. Já os sistemas frontais, que também mostram uma boa concordância na série de referência, possuem uma tendência de aumento em sua frequência nas duas regiões estudadas. Da mesma forma o regime de chuvas simuladas pelo RegCM4 indica acumulados mais significativos nas estações de verão, outono e primavera e um comportamento próximo ao observado para os meses de inverno.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em MeteorologiaUFSMBRMeteorologiaBloqueios atmosféricosSistemas frontaisCenários futurosAtmospheric blockingFrontal systemsFuture scenariosCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIABloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuroAtmospheric blockings and frontal systems over South America in future climate scenariosinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisFerraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginskihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5545006407615789Ambrizzi, Terciohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9337611912907437Boiaski, Nathalie Tissothttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8599135403486788http://lattes.cnpq.br/5229238211083736Pedroso, Diego100700300004400300300300300890e04b2-49dc-4fe7-a16e-07665d183a7dc41507bf-fecc-4926-811a-ef79857c680da18a054c-6b74-4b48-a155-18ff2fb77ac06d457d34-506a-4b95-8c53-4683b5690aacinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALPEDROSO, DIEGO.pdfapplication/pdf4359787http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/10275/1/PEDROSO%2c%20DIEGO.pdfe0db1e0df77e9e2a85413869f1123002MD51TEXTPEDROSO, DIEGO.pdf.txtPEDROSO, DIEGO.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain145427http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/10275/2/PEDROSO%2c%20DIEGO.pdf.txtdd864aa4e917e88bce49646d3dc31c4eMD52THUMBNAILPEDROSO, DIEGO.pdf.jpgPEDROSO, DIEGO.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg4778http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/10275/3/PEDROSO%2c%20DIEGO.pdf.jpg27a1dc9a1d65a26c762883703a7d7898MD531/102752023-06-16 16:59:17.279oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/10275Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2023-06-16T19:59:17Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Atmospheric blockings and frontal systems over South America in future climate scenarios |
title |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro |
spellingShingle |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro Pedroso, Diego Bloqueios atmosféricos Sistemas frontais Cenários futuros Atmospheric blocking Frontal systems Future scenarios CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA |
title_short |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro |
title_full |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro |
title_fullStr |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro |
title_sort |
Bloqueios atmosféricos e sistemas frontais sobre a América do Sul em cenários de clima futuro |
author |
Pedroso, Diego |
author_facet |
Pedroso, Diego |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5545006407615789 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Ambrizzi, Tercio |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9337611912907437 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Boiaski, Nathalie Tissot |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8599135403486788 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5229238211083736 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pedroso, Diego |
contributor_str_mv |
Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski Ambrizzi, Tercio Boiaski, Nathalie Tissot |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Bloqueios atmosféricos Sistemas frontais Cenários futuros |
topic |
Bloqueios atmosféricos Sistemas frontais Cenários futuros Atmospheric blocking Frontal systems Future scenarios CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Atmospheric blocking Frontal systems Future scenarios |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA |
description |
The meteorological systems modulate the behavior of rainfall and temperature on large regions and must be correctly simulated by the climate models. The representation of these events should be good for the reliability model to be higher. This research therefore has the primary aim of examining how atmospheric blocks and frontal systems are being detected. Was used for this, the model of the British Center, HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System) in two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the future (2020-2049) projections series, comparing them with series of reference for the past 30 years (1975-2004). The results will be validated from those already found by other studies. For the blocks, the detection method proposed by Pelly e Hoskins (2003), in which find meridionaly anomalous variations of potential temperature in the dynamical tropopause. Frontal systems were found by frontogenetic function first proposed by Petterssen (1956). Moreover, the study of changes in rainfall, simulated by RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) model for the South and Southeast regions of Brazil is made. The main results show that there good agreement between the annual cycle and positioning of both systems by the model on past. There is a reduction of blocking systems on Central Pacific (170.0◦W-120◦W) and increased over the same region of the Southeast Pacific (117.5◦W-80◦W) and the Southwest Atlantic (77.5◦W-40◦W) in both future scenarios. The frontal systems, which also show a good agreement in the reference series, have a tendency to increase the frequency in the two studied regions. Likewise the accumulated rainfall simulated on RegCM4 indicating to be more significant in summer, fall and spring seasons and behavior similar to that reported previously for the winter months. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2014-02-20 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2017-03-01 |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2017-03-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
PEDROSO, Diego. Atmospheric blockings and frontal systems over South America in future climate scenarios. 2014. 93 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Geociências) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2014. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10275 |
identifier_str_mv |
PEDROSO, Diego. Atmospheric blockings and frontal systems over South America in future climate scenarios. 2014. 93 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Geociências) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2014. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10275 |
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por |
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100700300004 |
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openAccess |
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UFSM |
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BR |
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Meteorologia |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
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