Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/11327 |
Resumo: | The objective of this study was to analyze the finishing steers economical viability fed in a high-concentrate diet on different starting weights (240, 270, 300, 330, 360 and 390 kg) using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation methods. Diet was formulated with the following ingredients: whole grain corn and protein core. For the simulation of the financial indicator Net Present Value (NPV), the cash flows were calculated considering historical prices between 2003 to 2015, for each starting weight, the purchase of the animals occurred in May,and the sale occurred when they reached their slaughter weight. Simulations were performed to obtain the following analyzes:Probability distribution types determination of all cost itemsusing spearman correlation between random input variables, risk analysis, stochastic dominance type, sensitivity analysis using zootechnical indicators and revenue. Economic viability maintained the best return on investment for the initial weight 390 kg. The Net Present Value was R$ -253.80,R$ -253.80, R$ 4.74, R$ -20.17, R$ -32.23, and R$ 31.04, and the probability of a higher Net Present Value or Equal to zero was 13.8%, 10.80%, 52.90%, 47.90%, 45.90%, and 59.40% respectively. The use of the stochastic dominance type determined that the pairs of accumulated distribution curves in some cases dominated the larger ones. But in the case of the accumulated curves to starting weight 390 kg, these ones dominated all the others.It was possible to identify two types of investor: First and second order stochastic dominance.The investor of the project with starting weights 240 and 270 kg was characterized as first-order dominance and the others as second-order dominance. The sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential items in the financial indicator were fat animalsale, leananimal purchase, and concentrate cost. The use of feedlot with very light initial weight represented an investment alternative with high risk and low economic return. |
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2017-08-09T12:32:28Z2017-08-09T12:32:28Z2017-01-16http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/11327The objective of this study was to analyze the finishing steers economical viability fed in a high-concentrate diet on different starting weights (240, 270, 300, 330, 360 and 390 kg) using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation methods. Diet was formulated with the following ingredients: whole grain corn and protein core. For the simulation of the financial indicator Net Present Value (NPV), the cash flows were calculated considering historical prices between 2003 to 2015, for each starting weight, the purchase of the animals occurred in May,and the sale occurred when they reached their slaughter weight. Simulations were performed to obtain the following analyzes:Probability distribution types determination of all cost itemsusing spearman correlation between random input variables, risk analysis, stochastic dominance type, sensitivity analysis using zootechnical indicators and revenue. Economic viability maintained the best return on investment for the initial weight 390 kg. The Net Present Value was R$ -253.80,R$ -253.80, R$ 4.74, R$ -20.17, R$ -32.23, and R$ 31.04, and the probability of a higher Net Present Value or Equal to zero was 13.8%, 10.80%, 52.90%, 47.90%, 45.90%, and 59.40% respectively. The use of the stochastic dominance type determined that the pairs of accumulated distribution curves in some cases dominated the larger ones. But in the case of the accumulated curves to starting weight 390 kg, these ones dominated all the others.It was possible to identify two types of investor: First and second order stochastic dominance.The investor of the project with starting weights 240 and 270 kg was characterized as first-order dominance and the others as second-order dominance. The sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential items in the financial indicator were fat animalsale, leananimal purchase, and concentrate cost. The use of feedlot with very light initial weight represented an investment alternative with high risk and low economic return.O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a viabilidade econômica da terminação de novilhos acabados em confinamento recebendo dieta de alto grão, com diferentes pesos iniciais (240, 270, 300, 330, 360 e 390 kg) através de métodos de simulação probabilística de Monte Carlo. Foram formuladas dietas com os seguintes ingredientes: milho grão inteiro e núcleo proteico. Para a simulação do indicador financeiro Valor Presente Líquido - VPL (output) foram elaborados fluxos de caixa considerando cotações históricas dos anos de 2003 a 2015, para cada peso inicial, a compra dos animais se deram no mês de maio e a venda dos mesmos assim que atingiram os pesos de abate estipulados. Foram feitas simulações das quais se realizou as seguintes análises: determinação dos tipos de distribuição de probabilidade de todos os itens de custos, utilizando correlação de Spearman entre as variáveis aleatórias de entrada, análise de risco, tipo de dmoninância estocástica, análise de sensibilidade, usando receitas e indicadores zootécnicos. A viabilidade econômica manteve o melhor valor de retorno do investimento para o peso inicial 390 kg. O Valor Presente Líquido foi de R$ -253,80; R$ -253,80; R$ 4,74; R$ -20,17; R$ -32,23; R$ 31,04, a probabilidade de um Valor Presente Líquido maior ou igual à zero foi 13,8 % 10,80 % 52,90 % 47,90 % 45,90 % e 59,40 % respectivamente. O uso do tipo de dominância estocástica determinou que os pares de curvas de distribuição acumuladas menor em alguns casos dominaram os maiores, mas nos caso das curvas acumuladas do peso inicial 390 kg dominou todas as demais, ainda pode se identificador dois tipos de investidor o de dominância estocástica de primeira ordem e segunda ordem, o investidor do projeto com peso inicial 240 e 270 kg foi caracterizado como de primeira ordem de dominância e os demais de segunda. Análise de sensibilidade demonstou que os itens mais influentes no indicador financeiro foram venda do animal gordo, compra do animal magro, custo com concentrado. O uso do confinamento com pesos iniciais muito leves se caracterizaram como uma opção de terminação representou uma alternativa de investimento com alto risco e baixo retorno econômico.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de Ciências RuraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em ZootecniaUFSMBrasilZootecniaAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAnálise de investimentoRentabilidadeTomada de decisãoAnalysis of investmentDecision makingProfitabilityCNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIAAnálise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciaisProbabilistic economic analysis of steers feedlotwith different starting weightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisPacheco, Paulo Santanahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9700645244479913Pascoal, Leonir Luizhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6500944541004301Vaz, Ricardo Zambardahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1120109274579134http://lattes.cnpq.br/1075270903808589Olegário, Janaine leal500400000002600600fde023e5-5ca4-4271-918d-18cd30f702a4f17f2e90-43bd-4a63-858e-06e237be54ad5c0719bd-30c8-431b-8171-4a1c3305eddfc1171fbd-1b0b-4229-816d-d039ef1604e7reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALOlegário, Janaine Leal.pdfOlegário, Janaine Leal.pdfDissertação de Mestradoapplication/pdf1017767http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/11327/1/Oleg%c3%a1rio%2c%20Janaine%20Leal.pdfac490bd0075d230a29eb0122a128a1abMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Probabilistic economic analysis of steers feedlotwith different starting weights |
title |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais |
spellingShingle |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais Olegário, Janaine leal Análise de investimento Rentabilidade Tomada de decisão Analysis of investment Decision making Profitability CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIA |
title_short |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais |
title_full |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais |
title_fullStr |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais |
title_sort |
Análise econômica probabilística do confinamento de novilhos com diferentes pesos iniciais |
author |
Olegário, Janaine leal |
author_facet |
Olegário, Janaine leal |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Pacheco, Paulo Santana |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9700645244479913 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Pascoal, Leonir Luiz |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6500944541004301 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Vaz, Ricardo Zambarda |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1120109274579134 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1075270903808589 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Olegário, Janaine leal |
contributor_str_mv |
Pacheco, Paulo Santana Pascoal, Leonir Luiz Vaz, Ricardo Zambarda |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise de investimento Rentabilidade Tomada de decisão |
topic |
Análise de investimento Rentabilidade Tomada de decisão Analysis of investment Decision making Profitability CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Analysis of investment Decision making Profitability |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIA |
description |
The objective of this study was to analyze the finishing steers economical viability fed in a high-concentrate diet on different starting weights (240, 270, 300, 330, 360 and 390 kg) using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation methods. Diet was formulated with the following ingredients: whole grain corn and protein core. For the simulation of the financial indicator Net Present Value (NPV), the cash flows were calculated considering historical prices between 2003 to 2015, for each starting weight, the purchase of the animals occurred in May,and the sale occurred when they reached their slaughter weight. Simulations were performed to obtain the following analyzes:Probability distribution types determination of all cost itemsusing spearman correlation between random input variables, risk analysis, stochastic dominance type, sensitivity analysis using zootechnical indicators and revenue. Economic viability maintained the best return on investment for the initial weight 390 kg. The Net Present Value was R$ -253.80,R$ -253.80, R$ 4.74, R$ -20.17, R$ -32.23, and R$ 31.04, and the probability of a higher Net Present Value or Equal to zero was 13.8%, 10.80%, 52.90%, 47.90%, 45.90%, and 59.40% respectively. The use of the stochastic dominance type determined that the pairs of accumulated distribution curves in some cases dominated the larger ones. But in the case of the accumulated curves to starting weight 390 kg, these ones dominated all the others.It was possible to identify two types of investor: First and second order stochastic dominance.The investor of the project with starting weights 240 and 270 kg was characterized as first-order dominance and the others as second-order dominance. The sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential items in the financial indicator were fat animalsale, leananimal purchase, and concentrate cost. The use of feedlot with very light initial weight represented an investment alternative with high risk and low economic return. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2017-08-09T12:32:28Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2017-08-09T12:32:28Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2017-01-16 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/11327 |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/11327 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
500400000002 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
600 600 |
dc.relation.authority.fl_str_mv |
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Rurais |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zootecnia |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFSM |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Zootecnia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Rurais |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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