Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Bioscience journal (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34547 |
Resumo: | The economic viability of feedlot Aberdeen Angus steers fed with diets composed of different concentrate levels (CL) in dry matter (25, 40, 55 or 70%) was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation combined with Spearman rank correlation, considering nine random input variables, as well as stochastic dominance (DOM) and sensitivity (SENS) analyses. For the financial indicator simulation, net present value (NPV), cash flow with indicators of performance, and the probability distribution of all cost and income items (from 2003 to 2014) were used. Latin hypercube sampling and a Mersenne Twister random number generator was employed for the simulation, which included 2000 interactions. The expected mean values ± standard deviation for NPV (USD/animal) were 44.94 ± 68.01, 44.50 ± 69.25, 15.39 ± 69.22 and 54.20 ± 71.58 for the diets containing 25, 40, 55 and 70% CL, respectively. The probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 76.8, 76.0, 57.9 and 78.1%, respectively, from the smallest to largest CL. The DOM analysis showed that 25 and 40% CL have similar probability curves, the 70% level dominated the remaining and all CL dominated 55%. According to SENS analysis, the items that most influenced the NPV were, in decreasing order, finished and feeder cattle price, initial and final weights, concentrate and roughage price, concentrate intake, minimum rate of attractiveness and roughage intake. Based on the simulation results, the 70% CL showed a higher NPV and greater likelihood of economic viability. The probabilistic simulation technique is an interesting tool for decision-making in investment projects with beef cattle feedlot, therefore, further studies in this line of research is recommended. |
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Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate Análise de risco da viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos Aberdeen Angus alimentados com diferentes proporções de concentrado Investment analysisinvestment projectprobabilistic analysisstochastic methodrank correlationAgricultural SciencesThe economic viability of feedlot Aberdeen Angus steers fed with diets composed of different concentrate levels (CL) in dry matter (25, 40, 55 or 70%) was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation combined with Spearman rank correlation, considering nine random input variables, as well as stochastic dominance (DOM) and sensitivity (SENS) analyses. For the financial indicator simulation, net present value (NPV), cash flow with indicators of performance, and the probability distribution of all cost and income items (from 2003 to 2014) were used. Latin hypercube sampling and a Mersenne Twister random number generator was employed for the simulation, which included 2000 interactions. The expected mean values ± standard deviation for NPV (USD/animal) were 44.94 ± 68.01, 44.50 ± 69.25, 15.39 ± 69.22 and 54.20 ± 71.58 for the diets containing 25, 40, 55 and 70% CL, respectively. The probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 76.8, 76.0, 57.9 and 78.1%, respectively, from the smallest to largest CL. The DOM analysis showed that 25 and 40% CL have similar probability curves, the 70% level dominated the remaining and all CL dominated 55%. According to SENS analysis, the items that most influenced the NPV were, in decreasing order, finished and feeder cattle price, initial and final weights, concentrate and roughage price, concentrate intake, minimum rate of attractiveness and roughage intake. Based on the simulation results, the 70% CL showed a higher NPV and greater likelihood of economic viability. The probabilistic simulation technique is an interesting tool for decision-making in investment projects with beef cattle feedlot, therefore, further studies in this line of research is recommended.Estimou-se o risco da viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos Aberdeen Angus alimentados com dietas com diferentes níveis de concentrado (NC) na matéria seca (25, 40, 55 ou 70%), utilizando simulação de Monte Carlo associado com o uso de correlação de Spearman entre nove variáveis aleatórias de entrada, dominância estocástica (DOM) e análise de sensibilidade (SENS). Para a simulação do indicador financeiro Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), foi utilizado fluxo de caixa com indicadores de desempenho e distribuição de probabilidade de todos os itens de custos e receitas (anos de 2003 a 2014). Amostragem de Hipercubo Latino e gerador de números aleatórios Mersenne Twister foram utilizados para a simulação com 2.000 interações. Os valores médios esperados para VPL ± desvio padrão (USD/animal) foram de: 44,94 ± 68,01; 44,50 ± 69,25; 15,39 ± 69,22 e 54,20 ± 71,58, respectivamente, para 25, 40, 55 e 70% NC. As probabilidades do VPL ≥ 0 foram 76,8%; 76,0%; 57,9% e 78,1%, respectivamente, do menor para maior NC. A análise de DOM demonstrou que 25 e 40% de concentrado apresentam curvas de probabilidade similares; 70% dominou os demais e 55% foi dominado por todos os NC. De acordo com a SENS, os itens que mais influenciaram no VPL foram, em ordem decrescente, os preços do boi gordo e magro, os pesos final e inicial, preços do concentrado e do volumoso, consumo de concentrado, taxa mínima de atratividade e consumo de volumoso. Com base nos resultados de simulação, o NC de 70% apresentou maior VPL e maior probabilidade de viabilidade econômica. A técnica de simulação probabilística demonstrou ser interessante ferramenta para tomada de decisões em projetos de investimento com confinamento de bovinos de corte, sugerindo a expansão de estudos nesta linha de pesquisa.EDUFU2017-05-24info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/3454710.14393/BJ-v33n3-34547Bioscience Journal ; Vol. 33 No. 3 (2017): May/June; 660-669Bioscience Journal ; v. 33 n. 3 (2017): May./June; 660-6691981-3163reponame:Bioscience journal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)instacron:UFUenghttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34547/20327Brazil; ContemporaryCopyright (c) 2017 Joilmaro Rodrigo Pereira Rosa, Angelina Camera, Paulo Santana Pacheco, Edom de Avila Fabricio, Daniel Batista Lemeshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRosa, Joilmaro Rodrigo PereiraCamera, AngelinaPacheco, Paulo Santana Fabricio, Edom de Avila Lemes, Daniel Batista2022-02-16T00:32:56Zoai:ojs.www.seer.ufu.br:article/34547Revistahttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournalPUBhttps://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/oaibiosciencej@ufu.br||1981-31631516-3725opendoar:2022-02-16T00:32:56Bioscience journal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate Análise de risco da viabilidade econômica do confinamento de novilhos Aberdeen Angus alimentados com diferentes proporções de concentrado |
title |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate |
spellingShingle |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate Rosa, Joilmaro Rodrigo Pereira Investment analysis investment project probabilistic analysis stochastic method rank correlation Agricultural Sciences |
title_short |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate |
title_full |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate |
title_fullStr |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate |
title_sort |
Risk analysis of the economic viability of feedlot aberdeen angus steers fed with different proportions of concentrate |
author |
Rosa, Joilmaro Rodrigo Pereira |
author_facet |
Rosa, Joilmaro Rodrigo Pereira Camera, Angelina Pacheco, Paulo Santana Fabricio, Edom de Avila Lemes, Daniel Batista |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Camera, Angelina Pacheco, Paulo Santana Fabricio, Edom de Avila Lemes, Daniel Batista |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rosa, Joilmaro Rodrigo Pereira Camera, Angelina Pacheco, Paulo Santana Fabricio, Edom de Avila Lemes, Daniel Batista |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Investment analysis investment project probabilistic analysis stochastic method rank correlation Agricultural Sciences |
topic |
Investment analysis investment project probabilistic analysis stochastic method rank correlation Agricultural Sciences |
description |
The economic viability of feedlot Aberdeen Angus steers fed with diets composed of different concentrate levels (CL) in dry matter (25, 40, 55 or 70%) was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation combined with Spearman rank correlation, considering nine random input variables, as well as stochastic dominance (DOM) and sensitivity (SENS) analyses. For the financial indicator simulation, net present value (NPV), cash flow with indicators of performance, and the probability distribution of all cost and income items (from 2003 to 2014) were used. Latin hypercube sampling and a Mersenne Twister random number generator was employed for the simulation, which included 2000 interactions. The expected mean values ± standard deviation for NPV (USD/animal) were 44.94 ± 68.01, 44.50 ± 69.25, 15.39 ± 69.22 and 54.20 ± 71.58 for the diets containing 25, 40, 55 and 70% CL, respectively. The probability of NPV ≥ 0 was 76.8, 76.0, 57.9 and 78.1%, respectively, from the smallest to largest CL. The DOM analysis showed that 25 and 40% CL have similar probability curves, the 70% level dominated the remaining and all CL dominated 55%. According to SENS analysis, the items that most influenced the NPV were, in decreasing order, finished and feeder cattle price, initial and final weights, concentrate and roughage price, concentrate intake, minimum rate of attractiveness and roughage intake. Based on the simulation results, the 70% CL showed a higher NPV and greater likelihood of economic viability. The probabilistic simulation technique is an interesting tool for decision-making in investment projects with beef cattle feedlot, therefore, further studies in this line of research is recommended. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-05-24 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34547 10.14393/BJ-v33n3-34547 |
url |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34547 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.14393/BJ-v33n3-34547 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/biosciencejournal/article/view/34547/20327 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazil; Contemporary |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EDUFU |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EDUFU |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Bioscience Journal ; Vol. 33 No. 3 (2017): May/June; 660-669 Bioscience Journal ; v. 33 n. 3 (2017): May./June; 660-669 1981-3163 reponame:Bioscience journal (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) instacron:UFU |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
instacron_str |
UFU |
institution |
UFU |
reponame_str |
Bioscience journal (Online) |
collection |
Bioscience journal (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Bioscience journal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
biosciencej@ufu.br|| |
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1797069077054750720 |