Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
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Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate |
Texto Completo: | http://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drd/article/view/3629 |
Resumo: | In 1970’s in Europe and the United States emerged evidence of a narrowing of revenue and costs in agriculture, this phenomenon became known as cost price squeeze. Among the responsible factors one in common predominated, the current model of agricultural production was pointed out by many authors as the main one. This study tested the hypothesis of cost price squeeze in Brazilian agriculture using time series econometrics. More specifically, it sought to identify whether there is a cointegration between the trajectory of prices paid and prices received by producers. We also tested cointegration including macroeconomic variables to verify the validity of the model proposed by Garder (1981) that the cost price squeeze hypothesis can be masked in the presence of other macroeconomic variables. The results showed that the series used were integrated in the same order. However, the tests suggested no cointegration when the price series paid and received by the producers were used, suggesting that the cost price squeeze hypothesis is valid for Brazilian agriculture according to Moss (1992). By including the general price index and the money supply the results also suggest accepting this hypothesis for the Brazilian case. Keywords: Agricultural prices; Cointegration; Inflation. |
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Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegrationEvidencia de aproximación de precios de costos en la agricultura brasileña: una aplicación de la cointegraciónEvidências do cost price squeeze na agricultura brasileira: uma aplicação de cointegraçãoIn 1970’s in Europe and the United States emerged evidence of a narrowing of revenue and costs in agriculture, this phenomenon became known as cost price squeeze. Among the responsible factors one in common predominated, the current model of agricultural production was pointed out by many authors as the main one. This study tested the hypothesis of cost price squeeze in Brazilian agriculture using time series econometrics. More specifically, it sought to identify whether there is a cointegration between the trajectory of prices paid and prices received by producers. We also tested cointegration including macroeconomic variables to verify the validity of the model proposed by Garder (1981) that the cost price squeeze hypothesis can be masked in the presence of other macroeconomic variables. The results showed that the series used were integrated in the same order. However, the tests suggested no cointegration when the price series paid and received by the producers were used, suggesting that the cost price squeeze hypothesis is valid for Brazilian agriculture according to Moss (1992). By including the general price index and the money supply the results also suggest accepting this hypothesis for the Brazilian case. Keywords: Agricultural prices; Cointegration; Inflation.A partir de la década de 1970, tanto en Europa como en Estados Unidos, surgieron pruebas de un estrechamiento entre los ingresos y los costos en la agricultura, este fenómeno se conoció como contracción de los precios de los costos. Entre los factores responsables, predominó uno en común, el modelo actual de producción agrícola fue señalado por muchos autores como el principal. Este estudio probó la hipótesis de la contracción de los precios de costo en la agricultura brasileña utilizando econometría de series de tiempo. Más específicamente, buscó identificar si existe una cointegración entre la trayectoria de los precios pagados y recibidos por los productores. También se probó la cointegración incluyendo variables macroeconómicas para verificar la validez del modelo propuesto por Garder (1981) de que la hipótesis de contracción del precio de costo puede ser enmascarada en presencia de otras variables macroeconómicas. Los resultados mostraron que las series utilizadas se integraron en el mismo orden. Sin embargo, las pruebas sugirieron no cointegración cuando solo se utilizaron las series de precios pagados y recibidos por los productores, sugiriendo que la hipótesis de contracción del precio de costo es válida para la agricultura brasileña según Moss (1992). Al incluir el índice general de precios y la oferta monetaria, los resultados también sugieren aceptar la hipótesis de contracción del precio de costo para el caso brasileño. Palavras clave: Precios agrícolas. Cointegración. Inflación. Brasil.Surgiram, a partir da década de 1970, tanto na Europa quanto nos Estados Unidos, evidências de um estreitamento entre receita e custos na agricultura, esse fenômeno ficou conhecido como cost price squeeze. Dentre os fatores responsáveis, um em comum predominou, o atual modelo de produção agrícola foi apontado por muitos autores como principal. Esse estudo testou a hipótese do cost price squeeze na agricultura brasileira com uso da econometria de séries temporais. Mais especificamente buscou identificar se há cointegração entre a trajetória dos preços pagos e recebidos pelos produtores. Também foi testada a cointegração incluindo variáveis macroeconômicas para verificar a validade do modelo proposto por Garder (1981) de que a hipótese do cost price squeeze pode ser mascarada na presença de outras variáveis macroeconômicas. Os resultados apontaram que as séries utilizadas eram integradas de mesma ordem. Contudo, os testes sugeriram a não cointegração quando foram utilizadas apenas as séries de preços pagos e recebidos pelos produtores sugerindo que a hipótese do cost price squeeze é válida para a agricultura brasileira em acordo com Moss (1992). Ao incluir o índice de preços geral e a oferta de moeda os resultados também sugerem aceitar a hipótese do cost price squeeze para o caso brasileiro. Palavras-chave: Preços agrícolas. Cointegração. Inflação. Brasil.Universidade do Contestado (UnC)2022-09-19info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drd/article/view/362910.24302/drd.v12.3629DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate; v. 12 (2022); 486-5012237-902910.24302/drd.v12reponame:DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debateinstname:Universidade do Contestado (UNC)instacron:UNCporhttp://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drd/article/view/3629/1856Copyright (c) 2022 DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debatehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTenório, Arnaldo Júnior Alves Justo, Wellington Ribeiro2022-09-19T23:32:45Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/3629Revistahttp://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drdONGhttp://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drd/oaidaniela@unc.br || revistadrd@unc.br || alexandre@unc.br || josiane@unc.br || valdir@unc.br2237-90292237-9029opendoar:2022-09-19T23:32:45DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate - Universidade do Contestado (UNC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration Evidencia de aproximación de precios de costos en la agricultura brasileña: una aplicación de la cointegración Evidências do cost price squeeze na agricultura brasileira: uma aplicação de cointegração |
title |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration |
spellingShingle |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration Tenório, Arnaldo Júnior Alves |
title_short |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration |
title_full |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration |
title_fullStr |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration |
title_sort |
Evidence of cost price squeeze in brazilian agriculture: an application of cointegration |
author |
Tenório, Arnaldo Júnior Alves |
author_facet |
Tenório, Arnaldo Júnior Alves Justo, Wellington Ribeiro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Justo, Wellington Ribeiro |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Tenório, Arnaldo Júnior Alves Justo, Wellington Ribeiro |
description |
In 1970’s in Europe and the United States emerged evidence of a narrowing of revenue and costs in agriculture, this phenomenon became known as cost price squeeze. Among the responsible factors one in common predominated, the current model of agricultural production was pointed out by many authors as the main one. This study tested the hypothesis of cost price squeeze in Brazilian agriculture using time series econometrics. More specifically, it sought to identify whether there is a cointegration between the trajectory of prices paid and prices received by producers. We also tested cointegration including macroeconomic variables to verify the validity of the model proposed by Garder (1981) that the cost price squeeze hypothesis can be masked in the presence of other macroeconomic variables. The results showed that the series used were integrated in the same order. However, the tests suggested no cointegration when the price series paid and received by the producers were used, suggesting that the cost price squeeze hypothesis is valid for Brazilian agriculture according to Moss (1992). By including the general price index and the money supply the results also suggest accepting this hypothesis for the Brazilian case. Keywords: Agricultural prices; Cointegration; Inflation. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-09-19 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drd/article/view/3629 10.24302/drd.v12.3629 |
url |
http://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drd/article/view/3629 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.24302/drd.v12.3629 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
http://www.periodicos.unc.br/index.php/drd/article/view/3629/1856 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Contestado (UnC) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Contestado (UnC) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate; v. 12 (2022); 486-501 2237-9029 10.24302/drd.v12 reponame:DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate instname:Universidade do Contestado (UNC) instacron:UNC |
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Universidade do Contestado (UNC) |
instacron_str |
UNC |
institution |
UNC |
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DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate |
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DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional em debate - Universidade do Contestado (UNC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
daniela@unc.br || revistadrd@unc.br || alexandre@unc.br || josiane@unc.br || valdir@unc.br |
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1797231530463985664 |