Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19
Main Author: | |
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Publication Date: | 2021 |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | eng |
Source: | Journal Health NPEPS |
Download full: | https://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/article/view/5597 |
Summary: | Objective: to analyze epidemic curves based on mathematical models for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission. Method: the linear, polynomial and exponential regression model was used to make the numerical adjustment of the respective curves empirical. Result: it was found that the models used describe very well the empirical curves in which they were tested. In particular, the polynomial model is able to identify with reasonable reliability the appearance of the inflection point in the accumulated curves, which corresponds to the maximum point of the respective daily curves. The analysis indicates a weak positive correlation between infection, mortality, lethality and deaths from COVID-19 with population density, as revealed by the correlation and analysis of R2. Conclusion: the models are very effective in describing the COVID-19 and epidemic curves in the estimation of important epidemiological parameters, such as peak case curves and daily deaths, allowing practical and efficient monitoring of the evolution of the epidemic. |
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Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19COVID-19Epidemiological ModelsHealth PolicyObjective: to analyze epidemic curves based on mathematical models for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission. Method: the linear, polynomial and exponential regression model was used to make the numerical adjustment of the respective curves empirical. Result: it was found that the models used describe very well the empirical curves in which they were tested. In particular, the polynomial model is able to identify with reasonable reliability the appearance of the inflection point in the accumulated curves, which corresponds to the maximum point of the respective daily curves. The analysis indicates a weak positive correlation between infection, mortality, lethality and deaths from COVID-19 with population density, as revealed by the correlation and analysis of R2. Conclusion: the models are very effective in describing the COVID-19 and epidemic curves in the estimation of important epidemiological parameters, such as peak case curves and daily deaths, allowing practical and efficient monitoring of the evolution of the epidemic. Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT)2021-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/article/view/5597Journal Health NPEPS; v. 6 n. 2 (2021): Julho-DezembroJournal Health NPEPS; Vol. 6 No. 2 (2021): Julho-DezembroJournal Health NPEPS; Vol. 6 Núm. 2 (2021): Julho-Dezembro2526-1010reponame:Journal Health NPEPSinstname:Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT)instacron:UNEMATenghttps://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/article/view/5597/4312Copyright (c) 2021 JOURNAL HEALTH NPEPSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSouza, Amaury deAbreu, Marcel CarvalhoOliveira-Júnior, José Francisco deAlves Fernandes, WidineiAristone, FlávioMartins de Souza, Deborada Silva, Silvania DonatoBarros da Silva, Elania2021-12-27T10:57:44Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/5597Revistahttp://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpepsPUBhttps://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/oainpeps@unemat.br2526-10102526-1010opendoar:2023-01-12T16:41:39.721911Journal Health NPEPS - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 |
title |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 |
spellingShingle |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 Souza, Amaury de COVID-19 Epidemiological Models Health Policy |
title_short |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 |
title_full |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 |
title_fullStr |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 |
title_sort |
Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19 |
author |
Souza, Amaury de |
author_facet |
Souza, Amaury de Abreu, Marcel Carvalho Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco de Alves Fernandes, Widinei Aristone, Flávio Martins de Souza, Debora da Silva, Silvania Donato Barros da Silva, Elania |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Abreu, Marcel Carvalho Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco de Alves Fernandes, Widinei Aristone, Flávio Martins de Souza, Debora da Silva, Silvania Donato Barros da Silva, Elania |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Souza, Amaury de Abreu, Marcel Carvalho Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco de Alves Fernandes, Widinei Aristone, Flávio Martins de Souza, Debora da Silva, Silvania Donato Barros da Silva, Elania |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Epidemiological Models Health Policy |
topic |
COVID-19 Epidemiological Models Health Policy |
description |
Objective: to analyze epidemic curves based on mathematical models for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission. Method: the linear, polynomial and exponential regression model was used to make the numerical adjustment of the respective curves empirical. Result: it was found that the models used describe very well the empirical curves in which they were tested. In particular, the polynomial model is able to identify with reasonable reliability the appearance of the inflection point in the accumulated curves, which corresponds to the maximum point of the respective daily curves. The analysis indicates a weak positive correlation between infection, mortality, lethality and deaths from COVID-19 with population density, as revealed by the correlation and analysis of R2. Conclusion: the models are very effective in describing the COVID-19 and epidemic curves in the estimation of important epidemiological parameters, such as peak case curves and daily deaths, allowing practical and efficient monitoring of the evolution of the epidemic. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/article/view/5597 |
url |
https://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/article/view/5597 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/article/view/5597/4312 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 JOURNAL HEALTH NPEPS info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 JOURNAL HEALTH NPEPS |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Journal Health NPEPS; v. 6 n. 2 (2021): Julho-Dezembro Journal Health NPEPS; Vol. 6 No. 2 (2021): Julho-Dezembro Journal Health NPEPS; Vol. 6 Núm. 2 (2021): Julho-Dezembro 2526-1010 reponame:Journal Health NPEPS instname:Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT) instacron:UNEMAT |
instname_str |
Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT) |
instacron_str |
UNEMAT |
institution |
UNEMAT |
reponame_str |
Journal Health NPEPS |
collection |
Journal Health NPEPS |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Journal Health NPEPS - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
npeps@unemat.br |
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1797051502718615552 |