Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Souza, Lucas Barbosa e, Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro, Morais, Marco Antonio Vieira
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Research, Society and Development
Texto Completo: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/13545
Resumo: This study aimed to map monthly and annual rainfall based on geostatistical procedures and to analyze spatial and temporal rainfall trends for the state of Tocantins. Historical series of monthly and annual precipitation were constituted in a standardized period between 1988 and 2019, generating average values ​​to proceed with the spatialization and interpolation of the data. The exploratory analysis of the data was performed based on trend graphs for annual precipitation, which demonstrate the general behavior presented in this analysis between the different events under study, submitting the data to the Mann-Kendall trend test. We proceeded with the adjustment of the theoretical semivariogram model, from obtaining the values ​​for the structural parameters such as the nugget effect, the contribution and the reach. For monthly rainfall, the degree of spatial dependence for the models with the best performance varied between 72.4% and 100%. From the spatial point of view, the southeast of Tocantins presented the lowest precipitation values ​​and the month of December the highest. As for the temporal bias, during the month of July, the center-south portion of Tocantins presented very low rates, between 0 and 2 mm, while in the rainiest months, from December to March, the monthly precipitation varied between 382 mm (January) and 262 mm (February). The months between July and September are the critical drought period in Tocantins, when the rainfall in the period varied from 0 to 25 mm.
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spelling Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, BrazilVariabilidad espacial y temporal de la precipitación en el Estado de Tocantins, BrasilVariabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitação no Estado do Tocantins, BrasilGeoestatísticaPluviosidadeMann-Kendall.GeoestadísticaLluviaMann-Kendall.GeostatisticsRainfallMann-Kendall.This study aimed to map monthly and annual rainfall based on geostatistical procedures and to analyze spatial and temporal rainfall trends for the state of Tocantins. Historical series of monthly and annual precipitation were constituted in a standardized period between 1988 and 2019, generating average values ​​to proceed with the spatialization and interpolation of the data. The exploratory analysis of the data was performed based on trend graphs for annual precipitation, which demonstrate the general behavior presented in this analysis between the different events under study, submitting the data to the Mann-Kendall trend test. We proceeded with the adjustment of the theoretical semivariogram model, from obtaining the values ​​for the structural parameters such as the nugget effect, the contribution and the reach. For monthly rainfall, the degree of spatial dependence for the models with the best performance varied between 72.4% and 100%. From the spatial point of view, the southeast of Tocantins presented the lowest precipitation values ​​and the month of December the highest. As for the temporal bias, during the month of July, the center-south portion of Tocantins presented very low rates, between 0 and 2 mm, while in the rainiest months, from December to March, the monthly precipitation varied between 382 mm (January) and 262 mm (February). The months between July and September are the critical drought period in Tocantins, when the rainfall in the period varied from 0 to 25 mm.El objetivo de este estudio es mapear las precipitaciones mensuales y anuales con base en procedimientos geoestadísticos y analizar las tendencias espaciales y temporales de las precipitaciones para el estado de Tocantins. Se constituyeron series históricas de precipitación mensual y anual en un período estandarizado entre 1988 y 2019, generando valores promedio para proceder con la espacialización e interpolación de los datos. El análisis exploratorio de los datos se realizó con base en gráficas de tendencia de precipitación anual, las cuales demuestran el comportamiento general presentado en este análisis entre los diferentes eventos en estudio, sometiendo los datos a la prueba de tendencia de Mann-Kendall. Se procedió al ajuste del modelo de semivariograma teórico, a partir de la obtención de los valores de los parámetros estructurales como el efecto pepita, el aporte y el alcance. Para la precipitación mensual, el grado de dependencia espacial para los modelos con mejor desempeño varió entre 72,4% y 100%. Desde el punto de vista espacial, el sureste de Tocantins presentó los valores de precipitación más bajos y el mes de diciembre los más altos. En cuanto al sesgo temporal, durante el mes de julio, la porción centro-sur de Tocantins presentó tasas muy bajas, entre 0 y 2 mm, mientras que en los meses más lluviosos, de diciembre a marzo, la precipitación mensual varió entre 382 mm (enero ) y 262 mm (febrero). Los meses entre julio y septiembre son el período crítico de sequía en Tocantins, cuando la precipitación en el período varió de 0 a 25 mm.O objetivo deste estudo é realizar o mapeamento da precipitação pluvial mensal e anual com base em procedimentos da geoestatística e analisar as tendências espaciais e temporais das chuvas para o estado do Tocantins. Foram constituídas séries históricas de precipitação mensal e anual em um período padronizado entre 1988 e 2019, gerando-se valores médios para proceder com a espacialização e interpolação dos dados. A análise exploratória dos dados foi realizada a partir de gráficos de tendência para a precipitação anual, que demonstram o comportamento geral apresentado nesta análise entre os diferentes eventos em estudo, submetendo os dados ao teste de tendências de Mann-Kendall. Procedeu-se com o ajuste do modelo de semivariograma teórico, a partir da obtenção dos valores para os parâmetros estruturais como o efeito pepita, a contribuição e o alcance. Para a precipitação mensal, o grau de dependência espacial para os modelos com melhor desempenho variou entre 72,4% e 100%. Sob o ponto de vista espacial, o sudeste do Tocantins apresentou os menores valores de precipitação e o mês de dezembro os maiores. Já pelo viés temporal, durante o mês de julho, a porção centro-sul tocantinense apresentou índices muito reduzidos, entre 0 e 2 mm, enquanto nos meses mais chuvosos, de dezembro a março, a precipitação mensal variou entre 382 mm (janeiro) e 262 mm (fevereiro). Os meses entre julho e setembro são o período crítico de estiagem no Tocantins, quando a precipitação no período apresentou variação de 0 a 25 mm.Research, Society and Development2021-03-21info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/1354510.33448/rsd-v10i3.13545Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 No. 3; e44310313545Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 Núm. 3; e44310313545Research, Society and Development; v. 10 n. 3; e443103135452525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/13545/12162Copyright (c) 2021 Virgilio Lourenço Silva Neto; Lucas Barbosa e Souza; Marcelo Ribeiro Viola; Marco Antonio Vieira Moraishttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço Souza, Lucas Barbosa eViola, Marcelo RibeiroMorais, Marco Antonio Vieira2021-03-28T12:03:35Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/13545Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:34:51.841813Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
Variabilidad espacial y temporal de la precipitación en el Estado de Tocantins, Brasil
Variabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitação no Estado do Tocantins, Brasil
title Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
spellingShingle Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Geoestatística
Pluviosidade
Mann-Kendall.
Geoestadística
Lluvia
Mann-Kendall.
Geostatistics
Rainfall
Mann-Kendall.
title_short Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
title_full Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
title_fullStr Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
title_sort Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Tocantins State, Brazil
author Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
author_facet Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Souza, Lucas Barbosa e
Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro
Morais, Marco Antonio Vieira
author_role author
author2 Souza, Lucas Barbosa e
Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro
Morais, Marco Antonio Vieira
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Souza, Lucas Barbosa e
Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro
Morais, Marco Antonio Vieira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Geoestatística
Pluviosidade
Mann-Kendall.
Geoestadística
Lluvia
Mann-Kendall.
Geostatistics
Rainfall
Mann-Kendall.
topic Geoestatística
Pluviosidade
Mann-Kendall.
Geoestadística
Lluvia
Mann-Kendall.
Geostatistics
Rainfall
Mann-Kendall.
description This study aimed to map monthly and annual rainfall based on geostatistical procedures and to analyze spatial and temporal rainfall trends for the state of Tocantins. Historical series of monthly and annual precipitation were constituted in a standardized period between 1988 and 2019, generating average values ​​to proceed with the spatialization and interpolation of the data. The exploratory analysis of the data was performed based on trend graphs for annual precipitation, which demonstrate the general behavior presented in this analysis between the different events under study, submitting the data to the Mann-Kendall trend test. We proceeded with the adjustment of the theoretical semivariogram model, from obtaining the values ​​for the structural parameters such as the nugget effect, the contribution and the reach. For monthly rainfall, the degree of spatial dependence for the models with the best performance varied between 72.4% and 100%. From the spatial point of view, the southeast of Tocantins presented the lowest precipitation values ​​and the month of December the highest. As for the temporal bias, during the month of July, the center-south portion of Tocantins presented very low rates, between 0 and 2 mm, while in the rainiest months, from December to March, the monthly precipitation varied between 382 mm (January) and 262 mm (February). The months between July and September are the critical drought period in Tocantins, when the rainfall in the period varied from 0 to 25 mm.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-03-21
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/13545
10.33448/rsd-v10i3.13545
url https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/13545
identifier_str_mv 10.33448/rsd-v10i3.13545
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/13545/12162
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 No. 3; e44310313545
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 Núm. 3; e44310313545
Research, Society and Development; v. 10 n. 3; e44310313545
2525-3409
reponame:Research, Society and Development
instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron:UNIFEI
instname_str Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron_str UNIFEI
institution UNIFEI
reponame_str Research, Society and Development
collection Research, Society and Development
repository.name.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv rsd.articles@gmail.com
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