Forecasting Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika cases in Recife, Brazil: a spatio-temporal approach based on climate conditions, health notifications and machine learning

• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Cecilia Cordeiro da
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Outros Autores: Lima, Clarisse Lins de, Silva, Ana Clara Gomes da, Moreno, Giselle Machado Magalhães, Musah, Anwar, Aldosery, Aisha, Dutra, Livia, Ambrizzi, Tercio, Borges, Iuri Valério Graciano, Tunali, Merve, Basibuyuk, Selma, Yenigün, Orhan, Jones, Kate, Campos, Luiza, Massoni, Tiago Lima, Silva Filho, Abel Guilhermino da, Kostkova, Patty, Santos, Wellington Pinheiro dos
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Research, Society and Development
• Texto Completo: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/20804
• topic: Dengue forecasting; Chikungunya forecasting; Zika forecasting; Arboviruses forecasting; Machine learning; Arboviruses prediction.; Previsão da dengue; Previsão de Chikungunya; Previsão do Zika; Previsão de arbovírus; Aprendizado de máquina; Predição de arbovírus.; Pronóstico del dengue; Pronóstico de Chikungunya; Pronóstico del Zika; Predicción de arbovirus; Aprendizaje de máquina; Predicción de arbovírus.

Dengue has become a challenge for many countries. Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti spread rapidly over the last decades. The emergence chikungunya fever and zika in South America poses new challenges to vector monitoring and control. This situation got worse from 2015 and 2016, with the rapid spread of chikungunya, causing fever and muscle weakness, and Zika virus, related to cases of microcephaly in newborns and the occurrence of Guillain-Barret syndrome, an autoimmune disease that affects the nervous system. The objective of this work was to construct a tool to forecast the distribution of arboviruses transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti by implementing dengue, zika and chikungunya transmission predictors based on machine learning, focused on multilayer perceptrons neural networks, support vector machines and linear regression models. As a case study, we investigated forecasting models to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of cases from primary health notification data and climate variables (wind velocity, temperature and pluviometry) from Recife, Brazil, from 2013 to 2016, including 2015’s outbreak. The use of spatio-temporal analysis over multilayer perceptrons and support vector machines results proved to be very effective in predicting the distribution of arbovirus cases. The models indicate that the southern and western regions of Recife were very susceptible to outbreaks in the period under investigation. The proposed approach could be useful to support health managers and epidemiologists to prevent outbreaks of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and promote public policies for health promotion and sanitation.