Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments
| Autor(a) principal: | |
|---|---|
| Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Research, Society and Development |
| Texto Completo: | https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/21868 |
Resumo: | The Brazil nut is one of the main non-timber forest products in Brazil, but its price fluctuations generate uncertainties and risks for both extractivists and investors. Econometric models or other simpler methods can estimate price changes and indicate the investment attractiveness of the Brazil nut. The objective of the present study was to analyze the risk-return relationship and the export price for both volatility of the Brazil nut over a 15 years period. The historical series of Brazil nut export prices, shelled and unshelled nuts, was evaluated from 2002 to 2016. The geometric growth rate and the variation coefficient indicate the return and risk respectively, associated with its price series. The price volatility of shelled and unshelled Brazil nuts was estimated with the standard deviation of the price series and with generalized models of ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH). The shelled or unshelled Brazil nut coefficient increased over 15 years, with a low risk-return ratio. The shelled Brazil nut volatility was lower in the 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2011 and 2012 to 2016 periods than for the unshelled nut when estimated by the standard deviation method than for the unshelled nut. The shelled Brazil nut price was higher from 2002 to 2016, with low volatility and persistent shocks. The estimate of the shelled and unshelled Brazil nut price volatility was better with the TARCH and the EGARCH models, respectively. |
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Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investmentsCastaña del Brasil un potencial no maderero: Incertidumbres e inversionesCastanha do Brasil um potencial não madeireiro: Incertezas e investimentosInversiónAtractivoProducto forestal no maderableVolatilidadPrecios.InvestimentoAtratividadeProduto florestal não madeireiroVolatilidadePreço.InvestmentAttractivenessNon-timber forest productVolatilityPrice.The Brazil nut is one of the main non-timber forest products in Brazil, but its price fluctuations generate uncertainties and risks for both extractivists and investors. Econometric models or other simpler methods can estimate price changes and indicate the investment attractiveness of the Brazil nut. The objective of the present study was to analyze the risk-return relationship and the export price for both volatility of the Brazil nut over a 15 years period. The historical series of Brazil nut export prices, shelled and unshelled nuts, was evaluated from 2002 to 2016. The geometric growth rate and the variation coefficient indicate the return and risk respectively, associated with its price series. The price volatility of shelled and unshelled Brazil nuts was estimated with the standard deviation of the price series and with generalized models of ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH). The shelled or unshelled Brazil nut coefficient increased over 15 years, with a low risk-return ratio. The shelled Brazil nut volatility was lower in the 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2011 and 2012 to 2016 periods than for the unshelled nut when estimated by the standard deviation method than for the unshelled nut. The shelled Brazil nut price was higher from 2002 to 2016, with low volatility and persistent shocks. The estimate of the shelled and unshelled Brazil nut price volatility was better with the TARCH and the EGARCH models, respectively.La castaña es uno de los principales productos forestales no maderables en Brasil, pero sus fluctuaciones de precios generan incertidumbres y riesgos tanto para los extractivistas como para los inversionistas. Los modelos econométricos u otros métodos más simples pueden estimar cambios de precios e indicar el atractivo de inversión de la castaña. El objetivo del presente estudio fue analizar la relación riesgo-rendimiento y el precio de exportación de ambos la volatilidad de la castaña en un período de 15 años. La serie histórica de precios de exportación de nueces de Brasil, nueces sin cáscara y sin cáscara, se evaluó de 2002 a 2016. La tasa de crecimiento geométrico y el coeficiente de variación indican el rendimiento y el riesgo, respectivamente, asociados con su serie de precios. La volatilidad de los precios de las castañas con y sin cáscara se estimó con la desviación estándar de la serie de precios y con modelos generalizados de ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH y TARCH). El coeficiente de nueces de Brasil sin cáscara o sin cáscara aumentó durante 15 años, con una baja relación riesgo-rendimiento. La volatilidad de la nuez de Brasil sin cáscara fue menor en los períodos 2002 a 2006, 2007 a 2011 y 2012 a 2016 que para la nuez sin cáscara cuando se estimó mediante el método de desviación estándar que para la nuez sin cáscara. El precio de la nuez de Brasil sin cáscara fue más alto de 2002 a 2016, con baja volatilidad y shocks persistentes. La estimación de la volatilidad de los precios de la nuez de Brasil sin cáscara y sin cáscara fue mejor con los modelos TARCH y EGARCH, respectivamente.A castanha do Brasil é um dos principais produtos florestais não madeireiros do Brasil, mas as oscilações de preços geram incertezas e riscos para extrativistas e investidores. Modelos econométricos ou outros métodos mais simples podem estimar mudanças de preço e indicar a atratividade de investimento da castanha do Brasil. O objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar a relação risco-retorno e o preço de exportação para a volatilidade da castanha do Brasil em um período de 15 anos. As séries históricas dos preços de exportação da castanha do Brasil com e sem casca foram avaliadas de 2002 a 2016. A taxa de crescimento geométrico e o coeficiente de variação indicam o retorno e o risco respectivamente, associados à sua série de preços. A volatilidade dos preços da castanha do Brasil com e sem casca foi estimada com o desvio padrão das séries de preços e com modelos generalizados de ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH e TARCH). O coeficiente da castanha-do-brasil com ou sem casca aumentou em 15 anos, com baixa relação risco-retorno. A volatilidade da castanha do Brasil com casca foi menor nos períodos de 2002 a 2006, 2007 a 2011 e 2012 a 2016 do que para a castanha sem casca quando estimada pelo método do desvio padrão do que para a castanha sem casca. O preço da castanha do Brasil descascada foi mais elevado de 2002 a 2016, com baixa volatilidade e choques persistentes. A estimativa da volatilidade do preço da castanha do Brasil descascada e descascada foi melhor com os modelos TARCH e EGARCH, respectivamente.Research, Society and Development2021-11-15info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/2186810.33448/rsd-v10i15.21868Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 No. 15; e22101521868Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 Núm. 15; e22101521868Research, Society and Development; v. 10 n. 15; e221015218682525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIenghttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/21868/19966Copyright (c) 2021 Lyvia Julienne Sousa Rêgo; Naisy Silva Soares; Crismeire Isbaex; Simone Silva; José Cola Zanuncio; Márcio Lopes da Silva; Flora Magdaline Benitez Romerohttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRêgo, Lyvia Julienne Sousa Soares, Naisy Silva Isbaex, CrismeireSilva, SimoneZanuncio, José Cola Silva, Márcio Lopes da Romero, Flora Magdaline Benitez2021-12-06T10:13:53Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/21868Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:41:11.657178Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments Castaña del Brasil un potencial no maderero: Incertidumbres e inversiones Castanha do Brasil um potencial não madeireiro: Incertezas e investimentos |
| title |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments |
| spellingShingle |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments Rêgo, Lyvia Julienne Sousa Inversión Atractivo Producto forestal no maderable Volatilidad Precios. Investimento Atratividade Produto florestal não madeireiro Volatilidade Preço. Investment Attractiveness Non-timber forest product Volatility Price. |
| title_short |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments |
| title_full |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments |
| title_fullStr |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments |
| title_sort |
Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments |
| author |
Rêgo, Lyvia Julienne Sousa |
| author_facet |
Rêgo, Lyvia Julienne Sousa Soares, Naisy Silva Isbaex, Crismeire Silva, Simone Zanuncio, José Cola Silva, Márcio Lopes da Romero, Flora Magdaline Benitez |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Soares, Naisy Silva Isbaex, Crismeire Silva, Simone Zanuncio, José Cola Silva, Márcio Lopes da Romero, Flora Magdaline Benitez |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rêgo, Lyvia Julienne Sousa Soares, Naisy Silva Isbaex, Crismeire Silva, Simone Zanuncio, José Cola Silva, Márcio Lopes da Romero, Flora Magdaline Benitez |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Inversión Atractivo Producto forestal no maderable Volatilidad Precios. Investimento Atratividade Produto florestal não madeireiro Volatilidade Preço. Investment Attractiveness Non-timber forest product Volatility Price. |
| topic |
Inversión Atractivo Producto forestal no maderable Volatilidad Precios. Investimento Atratividade Produto florestal não madeireiro Volatilidade Preço. Investment Attractiveness Non-timber forest product Volatility Price. |
| description |
The Brazil nut is one of the main non-timber forest products in Brazil, but its price fluctuations generate uncertainties and risks for both extractivists and investors. Econometric models or other simpler methods can estimate price changes and indicate the investment attractiveness of the Brazil nut. The objective of the present study was to analyze the risk-return relationship and the export price for both volatility of the Brazil nut over a 15 years period. The historical series of Brazil nut export prices, shelled and unshelled nuts, was evaluated from 2002 to 2016. The geometric growth rate and the variation coefficient indicate the return and risk respectively, associated with its price series. The price volatility of shelled and unshelled Brazil nuts was estimated with the standard deviation of the price series and with generalized models of ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH). The shelled or unshelled Brazil nut coefficient increased over 15 years, with a low risk-return ratio. The shelled Brazil nut volatility was lower in the 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2011 and 2012 to 2016 periods than for the unshelled nut when estimated by the standard deviation method than for the unshelled nut. The shelled Brazil nut price was higher from 2002 to 2016, with low volatility and persistent shocks. The estimate of the shelled and unshelled Brazil nut price volatility was better with the TARCH and the EGARCH models, respectively. |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-11-15 |
| dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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article |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
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https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/21868 10.33448/rsd-v10i15.21868 |
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https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/21868 |
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10.33448/rsd-v10i15.21868 |
| dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
| language |
eng |
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https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/21868/19966 |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
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Research, Society and Development |
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Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 No. 15; e22101521868 Research, Society and Development; Vol. 10 Núm. 15; e22101521868 Research, Society and Development; v. 10 n. 15; e22101521868 2525-3409 reponame:Research, Society and Development instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) instacron:UNIFEI |
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Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
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UNIFEI |
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UNIFEI |
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Research, Society and Development |
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Research, Society and Development |
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Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
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rsd.articles@gmail.com |
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1797052757490794496 |