Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0100-5405/1945 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/172026 |
Resumo: | Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 °C, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); ii) medium risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 °C and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease. |
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Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no BrasilPotential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in BrazilEucalyptusGlobal climate changesPredicting and alert systemPuccinia psidiiRust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 °C, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); ii) medium risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 °C and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.Department of Plant Production, Plant-Health Protection Sector, College of Agronomical Science (FCA), UNESP-Univ Estadual Paulista, Caixa Postal 237, Botucatu, SP 18610-307Department of Plant Production, Agricultural Science Center, Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES), 29500-000, Alegre, ESDepartment of Forestry, Agricultural Science Center, UFES, Alegre, ESCenter for Research and Technology, FIBRIA S.A., 29197-900, Aracruz, ESDepartment of Plant Production, Plant-Health Protection Sector, College of Agronomical Science (FCA), UNESP-Univ Estadual Paulista, Caixa Postal 237, Botucatu, SP 18610-307Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Center for Research and TechnologyMoraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP]de Jesus Junior, Waldir CintraCecílio, Roberto AvelinoMafia, Reginaldo GonçalvesMoraes, Wanderson BuckerCosmi, Fernando CarraraValadares Junior, Ranolfo2018-12-11T16:58:11Z2018-12-11T16:58:11Z2014-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article114-122application/pdfhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0100-5405/1945Summa Phytopathologica, v. 40, n. 2, p. 114-122, 2014.0100-5405http://hdl.handle.net/11449/17202610.1590/0100-5405/1945S0100-540520140002000022-s2.0-84940224890S0100-54052014000200002.pdfScopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengporSumma Phytopathologica0,258info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2023-11-13T06:16:15Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/172026Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462023-11-13T06:16:15Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
title |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil |
spellingShingle |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP] Eucalyptus Global climate changes Predicting and alert system Puccinia psidii |
title_short |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil |
title_full |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil |
title_fullStr |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil |
title_sort |
Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil |
author |
Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP] |
author_facet |
Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP] de Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra Cecílio, Roberto Avelino Mafia, Reginaldo Gonçalves Moraes, Wanderson Bucker Cosmi, Fernando Carrara Valadares Junior, Ranolfo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
de Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra Cecílio, Roberto Avelino Mafia, Reginaldo Gonçalves Moraes, Wanderson Bucker Cosmi, Fernando Carrara Valadares Junior, Ranolfo |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) Center for Research and Technology |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP] de Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra Cecílio, Roberto Avelino Mafia, Reginaldo Gonçalves Moraes, Wanderson Bucker Cosmi, Fernando Carrara Valadares Junior, Ranolfo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Eucalyptus Global climate changes Predicting and alert system Puccinia psidii |
topic |
Eucalyptus Global climate changes Predicting and alert system Puccinia psidii |
description |
Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 °C, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); ii) medium risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 °C and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-01-01 2018-12-11T16:58:11Z 2018-12-11T16:58:11Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0100-5405/1945 Summa Phytopathologica, v. 40, n. 2, p. 114-122, 2014. 0100-5405 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/172026 10.1590/0100-5405/1945 S0100-54052014000200002 2-s2.0-84940224890 S0100-54052014000200002.pdf |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0100-5405/1945 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/172026 |
identifier_str_mv |
Summa Phytopathologica, v. 40, n. 2, p. 114-122, 2014. 0100-5405 10.1590/0100-5405/1945 S0100-54052014000200002 2-s2.0-84940224890 S0100-54052014000200002.pdf |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Summa Phytopathologica 0,258 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
114-122 application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1797789699064987648 |