Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102018000100258 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 in Mexico and its states. METHODS This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011–2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states. RESULTS Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions. CONCLUSIONS The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states. |
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Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020Motor VehiclesAccidents, Traffic, prevention & controlAccidents, Traffic, trendsAccident Prevention, standardsSafety, legislation & jurisprudenceABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 in Mexico and its states. METHODS This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011–2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states. RESULTS Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions. CONCLUSIONS The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states.Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo2018-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102018000100258Revista de Saúde Pública v.52 2018reponame:Revista de Saúde Públicainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USP10.11606/s1518-8787.2018052000225info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessHíjar,MarthaPérez-Núñez,RicardoSalinas-Rodríguez,Aaróneng2018-07-19T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0034-89102018000100258Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=0034-8910&lng=pt&nrm=isoONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phprevsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br1518-87870034-8910opendoar:2018-07-19T00:00Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 |
title |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 |
spellingShingle |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 Híjar,Martha Motor Vehicles Accidents, Traffic, prevention & control Accidents, Traffic, trends Accident Prevention, standards Safety, legislation & jurisprudence |
title_short |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 |
title_full |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 |
title_fullStr |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 |
title_sort |
Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 |
author |
Híjar,Martha |
author_facet |
Híjar,Martha Pérez-Núñez,Ricardo Salinas-Rodríguez,Aarón |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Pérez-Núñez,Ricardo Salinas-Rodríguez,Aarón |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Híjar,Martha Pérez-Núñez,Ricardo Salinas-Rodríguez,Aarón |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Motor Vehicles Accidents, Traffic, prevention & control Accidents, Traffic, trends Accident Prevention, standards Safety, legislation & jurisprudence |
topic |
Motor Vehicles Accidents, Traffic, prevention & control Accidents, Traffic, trends Accident Prevention, standards Safety, legislation & jurisprudence |
description |
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 in Mexico and its states. METHODS This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011–2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states. RESULTS Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions. CONCLUSIONS The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102018000100258 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102018000100258 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.11606/s1518-8787.2018052000225 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública v.52 2018 reponame:Revista de Saúde Pública instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
revsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br |
_version_ |
1748936504745394176 |