Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/81104 |
Resumo: | This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities. |
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Customized risk assessment in military shipbuildingProject managementShipbuilding projectsRisk network modelDelphiBayesian networkScience & TechnologyThis paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities.- (undefined)Elsevier Science LtdUniversidade do MinhoCrispim, JoséFernandes, JorgeRego, Nazaré Glória Gonçalves2020-05-012020-05-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/1822/81104eng0951-832010.1016/j.ress.2020.106809info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:39:32Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/81104Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:36:09.783393Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
title |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
spellingShingle |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding Crispim, José Project management Shipbuilding projects Risk network model Delphi Bayesian network Science & Technology |
title_short |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
title_full |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
title_fullStr |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
title_full_unstemmed |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
title_sort |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
author |
Crispim, José |
author_facet |
Crispim, José Fernandes, Jorge Rego, Nazaré Glória Gonçalves |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Fernandes, Jorge Rego, Nazaré Glória Gonçalves |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Crispim, José Fernandes, Jorge Rego, Nazaré Glória Gonçalves |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Project management Shipbuilding projects Risk network model Delphi Bayesian network Science & Technology |
topic |
Project management Shipbuilding projects Risk network model Delphi Bayesian network Science & Technology |
description |
This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-01 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/81104 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/81104 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0951-8320 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106809 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science Ltd |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science Ltd |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799132889669959680 |