The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: MASSETTI, E.
Data de Publicação: 2013
Outros Autores: GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N., OLIVEIRA, A. F. de, MENDELSOHN, R.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
Texto Completo: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378
Resumo: We use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.
id EMBR_5545801adecb6e7d15e0b296dc91d685
oai_identifier_str oai:www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br:doc/1048378
network_acronym_str EMBR
network_name_str Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
repository_id_str 2154
spelling The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.Impacto econônicoProdutividadeProdução agrícolaMudança ClimáticaClimate changeAgricultureEconomic impactAgricultural productsWe use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.EMANUELE MASSETTI; ROSANA DO CARMO NASCIMENTO GUIDUCCI, SGI; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, CNPTIA; ROBERT MENDELSOHN.MASSETTI, E.GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.OLIVEIRA, A. F. deMENDELSOHN, R.2016-07-07T11:11:11Z2016-07-07T11:11:11Z2016-07-0720132016-07-11T11:11:11Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleSocial science research network, New York, n. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013.http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)instacron:EMBRAPA2017-08-16T03:25:51Zoai:www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br:doc/1048378Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestopendoar:21542017-08-16T03:25:51falseRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestcg-riaa@embrapa.bropendoar:21542017-08-16T03:25:51Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
title The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
spellingShingle The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
MASSETTI, E.
Impacto econônico
Produtividade
Produção agrícola
Mudança Climática
Climate change
Agriculture
Economic impact
Agricultural products
title_short The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
title_full The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
title_fullStr The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
title_full_unstemmed The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
title_sort The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
author MASSETTI, E.
author_facet MASSETTI, E.
GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.
OLIVEIRA, A. F. de
MENDELSOHN, R.
author_role author
author2 GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.
OLIVEIRA, A. F. de
MENDELSOHN, R.
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv EMANUELE MASSETTI; ROSANA DO CARMO NASCIMENTO GUIDUCCI, SGI; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, CNPTIA; ROBERT MENDELSOHN.
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv MASSETTI, E.
GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.
OLIVEIRA, A. F. de
MENDELSOHN, R.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Impacto econônico
Produtividade
Produção agrícola
Mudança Climática
Climate change
Agriculture
Economic impact
Agricultural products
topic Impacto econônico
Produtividade
Produção agrícola
Mudança Climática
Climate change
Agriculture
Economic impact
Agricultural products
description We use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013
2016-07-07T11:11:11Z
2016-07-07T11:11:11Z
2016-07-07
2016-07-11T11:11:11Z
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv Social science research network, New York, n. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013.
http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378
identifier_str_mv Social science research network, New York, n. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013.
url http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
instacron:EMBRAPA
instname_str Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
instacron_str EMBRAPA
institution EMBRAPA
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
collection Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv cg-riaa@embrapa.br
_version_ 1794503423731695616