The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.
Main Author: | |
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Publication Date: | 2013 |
Other Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | eng |
Source: | Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
Download full: | http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378 |
Summary: | We use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change. |
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The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.Impacto econônicoProdutividadeProdução agrícolaMudança ClimáticaClimate changeAgricultureEconomic impactAgricultural productsWe use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.EMANUELE MASSETTI; ROSANA DO CARMO NASCIMENTO GUIDUCCI, SGI; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, CNPTIA; ROBERT MENDELSOHN.MASSETTI, E.GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.OLIVEIRA, A. F. deMENDELSOHN, R.2016-07-07T11:11:11Z2016-07-07T11:11:11Z2016-07-0720132016-07-11T11:11:11Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleSocial science research network, New York, n. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013.http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)instacron:EMBRAPA2017-08-16T03:25:51Zoai:www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br:doc/1048378Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestopendoar:21542017-08-16T03:25:51falseRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestcg-riaa@embrapa.bropendoar:21542017-08-16T03:25:51Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
title |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
spellingShingle |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. MASSETTI, E. Impacto econônico Produtividade Produção agrícola Mudança Climática Climate change Agriculture Economic impact Agricultural products |
title_short |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
title_full |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
title_fullStr |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
title_sort |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
author |
MASSETTI, E. |
author_facet |
MASSETTI, E. GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N. OLIVEIRA, A. F. de MENDELSOHN, R. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N. OLIVEIRA, A. F. de MENDELSOHN, R. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
EMANUELE MASSETTI; ROSANA DO CARMO NASCIMENTO GUIDUCCI, SGI; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, CNPTIA; ROBERT MENDELSOHN. |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
MASSETTI, E. GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N. OLIVEIRA, A. F. de MENDELSOHN, R. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Impacto econônico Produtividade Produção agrícola Mudança Climática Climate change Agriculture Economic impact Agricultural products |
topic |
Impacto econônico Produtividade Produção agrícola Mudança Climática Climate change Agriculture Economic impact Agricultural products |
description |
We use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013 2016-07-07T11:11:11Z 2016-07-07T11:11:11Z 2016-07-07 2016-07-11T11:11:11Z |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
Social science research network, New York, n. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013. http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378 |
identifier_str_mv |
Social science research network, New York, n. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013. |
url |
http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1048378 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) instacron:EMBRAPA |
instname_str |
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) |
instacron_str |
EMBRAPA |
institution |
EMBRAPA |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
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Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cg-riaa@embrapa.br |
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