Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2182-84582015000100013 |
Resumo: | In Compliance with the annual Act for the State Budget, the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance usually makes twice a year an internal budget restructuring in the budgets of the separate Ministries and State Agencies of the Bulgarian State. What is in intriguing in this internal budget restructuring is that it is usually done in the months when the tourism receipts in the form of Value Added Tax turnovers are usually accumulated by the Bulgarian the tax administration. The need of proper forecasts that could eventually justify or reject such a hidden harvesting policy has never been examined and put to the public attention. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria. These problems include: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called forecast profile; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. As a result the Holt-Winters method is applied with the conclusion that the produced forecasts could trigger a process a more financially autonomous national tourism administration that will allow a greater part of the collected tax revenues for the tourism sector to be returned into the tourism industry in a form of public investments through this very same more autonomous national tourism administration. |
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Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in BulgariaForecastingexponential smoothingHolt-Winters methodmonthly tourism receiptsIn Compliance with the annual Act for the State Budget, the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance usually makes twice a year an internal budget restructuring in the budgets of the separate Ministries and State Agencies of the Bulgarian State. What is in intriguing in this internal budget restructuring is that it is usually done in the months when the tourism receipts in the form of Value Added Tax turnovers are usually accumulated by the Bulgarian the tax administration. The need of proper forecasts that could eventually justify or reject such a hidden harvesting policy has never been examined and put to the public attention. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria. These problems include: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called forecast profile; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. As a result the Holt-Winters method is applied with the conclusion that the produced forecasts could trigger a process a more financially autonomous national tourism administration that will allow a greater part of the collected tax revenues for the tourism sector to be returned into the tourism industry in a form of public investments through this very same more autonomous national tourism administration.Escola Superior de Gestão, Hotelaria e Turismo da Universidade do Algarve2015-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/htmlhttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2182-84582015000100013Tourism & Management Studies v.11 n.1 2015reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2182-84582015000100013Dimitrov,PreslavKalinova,MariaGantchev,GantchoNikolov,Chavdarinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-02-06T17:29:01Zoai:scielo:S2182-84582015000100013Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:33:06.021806Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
title |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
spellingShingle |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria Dimitrov,Preslav Forecasting exponential smoothing Holt-Winters method monthly tourism receipts |
title_short |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
title_full |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
title_fullStr |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
title_sort |
Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria |
author |
Dimitrov,Preslav |
author_facet |
Dimitrov,Preslav Kalinova,Maria Gantchev,Gantcho Nikolov,Chavdar |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Kalinova,Maria Gantchev,Gantcho Nikolov,Chavdar |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Dimitrov,Preslav Kalinova,Maria Gantchev,Gantcho Nikolov,Chavdar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Forecasting exponential smoothing Holt-Winters method monthly tourism receipts |
topic |
Forecasting exponential smoothing Holt-Winters method monthly tourism receipts |
description |
In Compliance with the annual Act for the State Budget, the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance usually makes twice a year an internal budget restructuring in the budgets of the separate Ministries and State Agencies of the Bulgarian State. What is in intriguing in this internal budget restructuring is that it is usually done in the months when the tourism receipts in the form of Value Added Tax turnovers are usually accumulated by the Bulgarian the tax administration. The need of proper forecasts that could eventually justify or reject such a hidden harvesting policy has never been examined and put to the public attention. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria. These problems include: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called forecast profile; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. As a result the Holt-Winters method is applied with the conclusion that the produced forecasts could trigger a process a more financially autonomous national tourism administration that will allow a greater part of the collected tax revenues for the tourism sector to be returned into the tourism industry in a form of public investments through this very same more autonomous national tourism administration. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-01-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2182-84582015000100013 |
url |
http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2182-84582015000100013 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2182-84582015000100013 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Superior de Gestão, Hotelaria e Turismo da Universidade do Algarve |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Superior de Gestão, Hotelaria e Turismo da Universidade do Algarve |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Tourism & Management Studies v.11 n.1 2015 reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799137391230844928 |