Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104 |
Resumo: | Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a “ring-shape” regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period. |
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Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenariosAntarcticaCMIP5Historicalmean sea level pressuremodes of variabilityRCPAbstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a “ring-shape” regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period.Academia Brasileira de Ciências2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências v.94 suppl.1 2022reponame:Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online)instname:Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC)instacron:ABC10.1590/0001-3765202220210667info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPRADO,LUCIANA F.WAINER,ILANASOUZA,RONALD B. DEeng2022-04-05T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0001-37652022000201104Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/aabchttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||aabc@abc.org.br1678-26900001-3765opendoar:2022-04-05T00:00Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) - Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
spellingShingle |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios PRADO,LUCIANA F. Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP |
title_short |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_full |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_sort |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
author |
PRADO,LUCIANA F. |
author_facet |
PRADO,LUCIANA F. WAINER,ILANA SOUZA,RONALD B. DE |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
WAINER,ILANA SOUZA,RONALD B. DE |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
PRADO,LUCIANA F. WAINER,ILANA SOUZA,RONALD B. DE |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP |
topic |
Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP |
description |
Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a “ring-shape” regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0001-3765202220210667 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências v.94 suppl.1 2022 reponame:Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) instname:Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) instacron:ABC |
instname_str |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) |
instacron_str |
ABC |
institution |
ABC |
reponame_str |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
collection |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) - Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||aabc@abc.org.br |
_version_ |
1754302871671668736 |