Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000501601 |
Resumo: | Abstract This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identified, and evidence of the vulnerability of the flora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the floras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas. |
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Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
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Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazilbiodiversity forecasting modelingecological niche modelingrefugewoody distributionAbstract This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identified, and evidence of the vulnerability of the flora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the floras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas.Academia Brasileira de Ciências2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000501601Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências v.94 n.3 2022reponame:Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online)instname:Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC)instacron:ABC10.1590/0001-3765202220210191info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCOSTA-COUTINHO,JOXLEIDE M. DAJARDIM,MÁRIO AUGUSTO G.MIRANDA,LEONARDO S.CASTRO,ANTONIO ALBERTO JORGE F.eng2022-07-14T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0001-37652022000501601Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/aabchttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||aabc@abc.org.br1678-26900001-3765opendoar:2022-07-14T00:00Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) - Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil |
title |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil COSTA-COUTINHO,JOXLEIDE M. DA biodiversity forecasting modeling ecological niche modeling refuge woody distribution |
title_short |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil |
title_full |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil |
title_sort |
Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil |
author |
COSTA-COUTINHO,JOXLEIDE M. DA |
author_facet |
COSTA-COUTINHO,JOXLEIDE M. DA JARDIM,MÁRIO AUGUSTO G. MIRANDA,LEONARDO S. CASTRO,ANTONIO ALBERTO JORGE F. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
JARDIM,MÁRIO AUGUSTO G. MIRANDA,LEONARDO S. CASTRO,ANTONIO ALBERTO JORGE F. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
COSTA-COUTINHO,JOXLEIDE M. DA JARDIM,MÁRIO AUGUSTO G. MIRANDA,LEONARDO S. CASTRO,ANTONIO ALBERTO JORGE F. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
biodiversity forecasting modeling ecological niche modeling refuge woody distribution |
topic |
biodiversity forecasting modeling ecological niche modeling refuge woody distribution |
description |
Abstract This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identified, and evidence of the vulnerability of the flora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the floras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000501601 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000501601 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0001-3765202220210191 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências v.94 n.3 2022 reponame:Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) instname:Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) instacron:ABC |
instname_str |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) |
instacron_str |
ABC |
institution |
ABC |
reponame_str |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
collection |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) - Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||aabc@abc.org.br |
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1754302872449712128 |