Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913 |
Resumo: | The Fernando de Noronha archipelago is a key site for biodiversity conservation, besides being one of the most searched destinies for ecotourism in Brazil. We present the first study focusing on the evaluation of this important archipelago’s exposure to climate change. Our metric was based on the differences between current and future predictions of climatic and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim dataset. For the predictions, we considered two models of radiative forcing, the first optimistic and the second a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. We showed an increase in average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation for the archipelago, although for the driest period of the year the precipitation is likely to increase. We also recovered a decrease in differences between interannual temperature variation and diurnal temperature variation, indicating a shift in the seasonality patterns. These changes can be potentially harmful to local biodiversity and consequently to local economy, since it is based on touristic activities that involves natural environments. The maintenance of local vegetation cover is likely to be a good strategy to avoid the local increase of environmental temperature, however, a global commitment to decrease the greenhouse gases emissions is paramount to avoid a potential collapse of small islands around the world, including the Fernando de Noronha archipelago. |
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Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, BrazilClimate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposureThe Fernando de Noronha archipelago is a key site for biodiversity conservation, besides being one of the most searched destinies for ecotourism in Brazil. We present the first study focusing on the evaluation of this important archipelago’s exposure to climate change. Our metric was based on the differences between current and future predictions of climatic and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim dataset. For the predictions, we considered two models of radiative forcing, the first optimistic and the second a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. We showed an increase in average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation for the archipelago, although for the driest period of the year the precipitation is likely to increase. We also recovered a decrease in differences between interannual temperature variation and diurnal temperature variation, indicating a shift in the seasonality patterns. These changes can be potentially harmful to local biodiversity and consequently to local economy, since it is based on touristic activities that involves natural environments. The maintenance of local vegetation cover is likely to be a good strategy to avoid the local increase of environmental temperature, however, a global commitment to decrease the greenhouse gases emissions is paramount to avoid a potential collapse of small islands around the world, including the Fernando de Noronha archipelago.Universidade Federal do ParanáCAPESCNPqFAPERJUniversidade do Estado do Rio de JaneiroUniversidade Federal da BahiaOhio UniversityDiele-Viegas, Luisa MariaRocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte2021-11-13info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/7091310.5380/rbclima.v29i0.70913Revista Brasileira de Climatologia; v. 29 (2021)2237-86421980-055X10.5380/rbclima.v29i0reponame:Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online)instname:ABClimainstacron:ABCLIMAenghttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913/45049https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/downloadSuppFile/70913/41270Fernando de Noronha; Brazilian NortheastPresent; Future predictionsModellingDireitos autorais 2021 Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas, Carlos Frederico Duarte Rochainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-11-10T13:11:57Zoai:revistas.ufpr.br:article/70913Revistahttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/indexPUBhttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/oaiegalvani@usp.br || rbclima2014@gmail.com2237-86421980-055Xopendoar:2021-11-10T13:11:57Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) - ABClimafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil |
title |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria Climate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposure |
title_short |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil |
title_full |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil |
title_sort |
Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil |
author |
Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria |
author_facet |
Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
CAPES CNPq FAPERJ Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro Universidade Federal da Bahia Ohio University |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposure |
topic |
Climate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposure |
description |
The Fernando de Noronha archipelago is a key site for biodiversity conservation, besides being one of the most searched destinies for ecotourism in Brazil. We present the first study focusing on the evaluation of this important archipelago’s exposure to climate change. Our metric was based on the differences between current and future predictions of climatic and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim dataset. For the predictions, we considered two models of radiative forcing, the first optimistic and the second a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. We showed an increase in average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation for the archipelago, although for the driest period of the year the precipitation is likely to increase. We also recovered a decrease in differences between interannual temperature variation and diurnal temperature variation, indicating a shift in the seasonality patterns. These changes can be potentially harmful to local biodiversity and consequently to local economy, since it is based on touristic activities that involves natural environments. The maintenance of local vegetation cover is likely to be a good strategy to avoid the local increase of environmental temperature, however, a global commitment to decrease the greenhouse gases emissions is paramount to avoid a potential collapse of small islands around the world, including the Fernando de Noronha archipelago. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-11-13 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
|
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913 10.5380/rbclima.v29i0.70913 |
url |
https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5380/rbclima.v29i0.70913 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913/45049 https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/downloadSuppFile/70913/41270 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Direitos autorais 2021 Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas, Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Direitos autorais 2021 Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas, Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv |
Fernando de Noronha; Brazilian Northeast Present; Future predictions Modelling |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Paraná |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Paraná |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia; v. 29 (2021) 2237-8642 1980-055X 10.5380/rbclima.v29i0 reponame:Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) instname:ABClima instacron:ABCLIMA |
instname_str |
ABClima |
instacron_str |
ABCLIMA |
institution |
ABCLIMA |
reponame_str |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) |
collection |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) - ABClima |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
egalvani@usp.br || rbclima2014@gmail.com |
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1754839542878175232 |