Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online)
Texto Completo: https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913
Resumo: The Fernando de Noronha archipelago is a key site for biodiversity conservation, besides being one of the most searched destinies for ecotourism in Brazil. We present the first study focusing on the evaluation of this important archipelago’s exposure to climate change.  Our metric was based on the differences between current and future predictions of climatic and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim dataset. For the predictions, we considered two models of radiative forcing, the first optimistic and the second a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. We showed an increase in average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation for the archipelago, although for the driest period of the year the precipitation is likely to increase. We also recovered a decrease in differences between interannual temperature variation and diurnal temperature variation, indicating a shift in the seasonality patterns. These changes can be potentially harmful to local biodiversity and consequently to local economy, since it is based on touristic activities that involves natural environments. The maintenance of local vegetation cover is likely to be a good strategy to avoid the local increase of environmental temperature, however, a global commitment to decrease the greenhouse gases emissions is paramount to avoid a potential collapse of small islands around the world, including the Fernando de Noronha archipelago.
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spelling Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, BrazilClimate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposureThe Fernando de Noronha archipelago is a key site for biodiversity conservation, besides being one of the most searched destinies for ecotourism in Brazil. We present the first study focusing on the evaluation of this important archipelago’s exposure to climate change.  Our metric was based on the differences between current and future predictions of climatic and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim dataset. For the predictions, we considered two models of radiative forcing, the first optimistic and the second a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. We showed an increase in average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation for the archipelago, although for the driest period of the year the precipitation is likely to increase. We also recovered a decrease in differences between interannual temperature variation and diurnal temperature variation, indicating a shift in the seasonality patterns. These changes can be potentially harmful to local biodiversity and consequently to local economy, since it is based on touristic activities that involves natural environments. The maintenance of local vegetation cover is likely to be a good strategy to avoid the local increase of environmental temperature, however, a global commitment to decrease the greenhouse gases emissions is paramount to avoid a potential collapse of small islands around the world, including the Fernando de Noronha archipelago.Universidade Federal do ParanáCAPESCNPqFAPERJUniversidade do Estado do Rio de JaneiroUniversidade Federal da BahiaOhio UniversityDiele-Viegas, Luisa MariaRocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte2021-11-13info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/7091310.5380/rbclima.v29i0.70913Revista Brasileira de Climatologia; v. 29 (2021)2237-86421980-055X10.5380/rbclima.v29i0reponame:Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online)instname:ABClimainstacron:ABCLIMAenghttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913/45049https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/downloadSuppFile/70913/41270Fernando de Noronha; Brazilian NortheastPresent; Future predictionsModellingDireitos autorais 2021 Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas, Carlos Frederico Duarte Rochainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-11-10T13:11:57Zoai:revistas.ufpr.br:article/70913Revistahttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/indexPUBhttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/oaiegalvani@usp.br || rbclima2014@gmail.com2237-86421980-055Xopendoar:2021-11-10T13:11:57Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) - ABClimafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
title Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
spellingShingle Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria
Climate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposure
title_short Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
title_full Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
title_fullStr Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
title_sort Will climate change be harmful for small tropical islands? The case of Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil
author Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria
author_facet Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria
Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte
author_role author
author2 Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv CAPES
CNPq
FAPERJ
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
Universidade Federal da Bahia
Ohio University
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Diele-Viegas, Luisa Maria
Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Climate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposure
topic Climate emergency; greenhouse gases emissions; small islands; climatic exposure
description The Fernando de Noronha archipelago is a key site for biodiversity conservation, besides being one of the most searched destinies for ecotourism in Brazil. We present the first study focusing on the evaluation of this important archipelago’s exposure to climate change.  Our metric was based on the differences between current and future predictions of climatic and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim dataset. For the predictions, we considered two models of radiative forcing, the first optimistic and the second a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. We showed an increase in average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation for the archipelago, although for the driest period of the year the precipitation is likely to increase. We also recovered a decrease in differences between interannual temperature variation and diurnal temperature variation, indicating a shift in the seasonality patterns. These changes can be potentially harmful to local biodiversity and consequently to local economy, since it is based on touristic activities that involves natural environments. The maintenance of local vegetation cover is likely to be a good strategy to avoid the local increase of environmental temperature, however, a global commitment to decrease the greenhouse gases emissions is paramount to avoid a potential collapse of small islands around the world, including the Fernando de Noronha archipelago.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-11-13
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913
10.5380/rbclima.v29i0.70913
url https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913
identifier_str_mv 10.5380/rbclima.v29i0.70913
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/70913/45049
https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/downloadSuppFile/70913/41270
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Direitos autorais 2021 Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas, Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Direitos autorais 2021 Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas, Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Fernando de Noronha; Brazilian Northeast
Present; Future predictions
Modelling
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Paraná
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Paraná
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Climatologia; v. 29 (2021)
2237-8642
1980-055X
10.5380/rbclima.v29i0
reponame:Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online)
instname:ABClima
instacron:ABCLIMA
instname_str ABClima
instacron_str ABCLIMA
institution ABCLIMA
reponame_str Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online)
collection Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) - ABClima
repository.mail.fl_str_mv egalvani@usp.br || rbclima2014@gmail.com
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