Petroleum reservoir uncertainty mitigation through the integration with production history matching

• Autor(a) principal: Becerra,Gustavo Gabriel
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Outros Autores: Maschio,Célio, Schiozer,Denis José
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Journal of the Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences and Engineering (Online)
• Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1678-58782011000200005
• topic: reservoir simulation; uncertainty mitigation; history matching; production prediction

This paper presents a new methodology to deal with uncertainty mitigation using observed data, integrating the uncertainty analysis and the history matching processes. The proposed method is robust and easy to use, offering an alternative way to traditional history matching methodologies. The main characteristic of the methodology is the use of observed data as constraints to reduce the uncertainty of the reservoir parameters. The integration of uncertainty analysis with history matching naturally yields prediction under uncertainty. The workflow permits to establish a target range of uncertainty that characterize a confidence interval of the probabilistic distribution curves around the observed data. A complete workflow of the proposed methodology was carried out in a realistic model based on outcrop data and the impact of the uncertainty reduction in the production forecasting was evaluated. It was demonstrated that for complex cases, with a high number of uncertain attributes and several objective-function, the methodology can be applied in steps, beginning with a field analysis followed by regional and local (well level) analyses. The main contribution of this work is to provide an interesting way to quantify and to reduce uncertainties with the objective to generate reliable scenario-based models for consistent production prediction.