Probabilistic Composition for Fast Group Decisions

• Autor(a) principal: Sant'Anna, Annibal Parracho
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Outros Autores: Nogueira, Helio Darwich, Rabelo, Lucia Mathias
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/V8N1A5
• topic: Multicriteria decision analysis; Probabilistic composition; Fast decision; Stocks portfolio

A methodology to deal with choice by a group of decision makers is here developed. Its first stepconsists on obtaining individual evaluations of the available options. These evaluations are seenas estimates of location parameters of random variables and each vector of individual evaluationsof the whole set of options is transformed into a vector of probabilities of being ranked as thebest choice by that individual decision maker. The next step is the probabilistic compositionof such individual vectors of probabilities into a unique vector of aggregate preferences. To dothat different composition procedures may be applied. The comparison of the results of distinctcomposition strategies is employed to detect outliers in the individual evaluations and, fnally,to filter the best options. After the initial evaluations are obtained, the whole process may beautomatically developed. This makes the methodology particularly useful when fast decisionsare needed. Its applicability is here illustrated by a case of daily revision of a stocks portfolio.