ANALYSIS OF BELO HORIZONTE AND METROPOLITAN REGION WATER SUPPLY: AN APPROACH THROUGH SYSTEM DYNAMICS

• Autor(a) principal: de Freitas, Rafaella Otoni Miranda
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Outros Autores: Santos, Gisele Tessari, Bahia, Eduardo Trindade
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista Brasileira de Ciências Ambientais (Online)
• DOI: 10.5327/Z2176-947820180281
• Texto Completo: https://www.rbciamb.com.br/Publicacoes_RBCIAMB/article/view/55
• topic: gestão de recursos hídricos; modelo de simulação; colapso hídrico; índice de sustentabilidade; management of water resources; simulation model; water collapse; sustainability index.

Water is an essential natural resource for life on the planet. In this context, the objective of this work was to apply the system dynamics methodology to the hydric resources management of Belo Horizonte metropolitan area to predict scenarios of hydric supplies and demands for the next 15 years. The main differential offered by this proposed model was, besides considering the eight systems that supply the region in an integrated way, to identify the moments and locals in which the hydric collapses occur. The model was validated using historical data, and three scenarios were simulated to verify the hydric collection system’s behavior in concern to a variation of supply and demand. Then, the sustainability index was calculated to analyze the vulnerability of the hydric resources along the period quantitatively. It was concluded that there are systems that already have a hydric deficit since 2016 and systems that are probable to collapse, so they have to be carefully examined by the region hydric resource managemeny.