Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Melo,Davi de Carvalho Diniz
Data de Publicação: 2016
Outros Autores: Wendland,Edson
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: RBRH (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312016000400766
Resumo: ABSTRACT Hydrological system’s sensibility and resilience to dry periods are crucial for estimating the potential impacts of droughts. Quantifying response times (RT) of this system’s components relative to droughts allows one to develop a predictive understanding of future impacts. In this context, this study proposes the use of non-parametric statistical methods to estimate RT between meteorological shifts, given by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the respective changes in the hydrological system, measured by river discharge (Q) and reservoir storage time series. Change point (CP) analyses were applied to time series of (i) SPI and accumulated storage relative to 32 reservoirs within the Paraná basin; and (ii) SPI, Q and reservoir storage relative to Furnas hydroelectric power plant. Based on the responses from CP analyses, RT in case (i) varied from 0 – 6 months, whereas, in case (ii), results indicate that significant changes in Q occurred in the same month of changes in rainfall. Results also suggest a minor role of anthropogenic factors (dam operation) compared to natural forcing in reservoir depletion during the 2014 drought than that in 2000/2001. This study reinforces the importance of an optimized reservoir management, considering the balance between anthropogenic and natural forcing as a strategy to combat droughts impacts.
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spelling Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shiftsMeteorological droughtSPIChange point analysisTime seriesABSTRACT Hydrological system’s sensibility and resilience to dry periods are crucial for estimating the potential impacts of droughts. Quantifying response times (RT) of this system’s components relative to droughts allows one to develop a predictive understanding of future impacts. In this context, this study proposes the use of non-parametric statistical methods to estimate RT between meteorological shifts, given by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the respective changes in the hydrological system, measured by river discharge (Q) and reservoir storage time series. Change point (CP) analyses were applied to time series of (i) SPI and accumulated storage relative to 32 reservoirs within the Paraná basin; and (ii) SPI, Q and reservoir storage relative to Furnas hydroelectric power plant. Based on the responses from CP analyses, RT in case (i) varied from 0 – 6 months, whereas, in case (ii), results indicate that significant changes in Q occurred in the same month of changes in rainfall. Results also suggest a minor role of anthropogenic factors (dam operation) compared to natural forcing in reservoir depletion during the 2014 drought than that in 2000/2001. This study reinforces the importance of an optimized reservoir management, considering the balance between anthropogenic and natural forcing as a strategy to combat droughts impacts.Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos2016-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312016000400766RBRH v.21 n.4 2016reponame:RBRH (Online)instname:Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)instacron:ABRH10.1590/2318-0331.011616083info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMelo,Davi de Carvalho DinizWendland,Edsoneng2017-02-15T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2318-03312016000400766Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/rbrh/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rbrh@abrh.org.br2318-03311414-381Xopendoar:2017-02-15T00:00RBRH (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
title Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
spellingShingle Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
Melo,Davi de Carvalho Diniz
Meteorological drought
SPI
Change point analysis
Time series
title_short Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
title_full Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
title_fullStr Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
title_full_unstemmed Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
title_sort Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts
author Melo,Davi de Carvalho Diniz
author_facet Melo,Davi de Carvalho Diniz
Wendland,Edson
author_role author
author2 Wendland,Edson
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Melo,Davi de Carvalho Diniz
Wendland,Edson
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Meteorological drought
SPI
Change point analysis
Time series
topic Meteorological drought
SPI
Change point analysis
Time series
description ABSTRACT Hydrological system’s sensibility and resilience to dry periods are crucial for estimating the potential impacts of droughts. Quantifying response times (RT) of this system’s components relative to droughts allows one to develop a predictive understanding of future impacts. In this context, this study proposes the use of non-parametric statistical methods to estimate RT between meteorological shifts, given by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the respective changes in the hydrological system, measured by river discharge (Q) and reservoir storage time series. Change point (CP) analyses were applied to time series of (i) SPI and accumulated storage relative to 32 reservoirs within the Paraná basin; and (ii) SPI, Q and reservoir storage relative to Furnas hydroelectric power plant. Based on the responses from CP analyses, RT in case (i) varied from 0 – 6 months, whereas, in case (ii), results indicate that significant changes in Q occurred in the same month of changes in rainfall. Results also suggest a minor role of anthropogenic factors (dam operation) compared to natural forcing in reservoir depletion during the 2014 drought than that in 2000/2001. This study reinforces the importance of an optimized reservoir management, considering the balance between anthropogenic and natural forcing as a strategy to combat droughts impacts.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-12-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312016000400766
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dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/2318-0331.011616083
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dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv RBRH v.21 n.4 2016
reponame:RBRH (Online)
instname:Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)
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instname_str Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)
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institution ABRH
reponame_str RBRH (Online)
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