Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Degraf,Henrique
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Detzel,Daniel Henrique Marco
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: RBRH (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312022000100229
Resumo: ABSTRACT The reservoir storage-yield-reliability (S-Y-R) curve defines the required volume to meet a specific yield. It is typically obtained through the historical streamflow time series; however, as an effect of nonstationarity, the statistical properties of a streamflow series may vary, which might lead to a change in the reservoir’s operational risk. In this study we explore this issue by analyzing two sets of annual data: (i) natural energy flows to aggregated reservoirs, and (ii) streamflow time series of four hydropower plants currently in operation in Brazil. The study is supported by Monte Carlo simulations to account for the reliability of the S-Y-R curves. Results suggest that the time series from the Southern and Northeast regions exhibit upward and downward trends, respectively. Consequently, the regularization capacity of the Southern reservoir decreased, however only in relative terms. On the other hand, the Northeastern reservoir had an actual loss of its regularization capacity as an effect of lower average streamflow.
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spelling Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationshipsTrendStorage-yield-reliability curveReservoirRegularizationABSTRACT The reservoir storage-yield-reliability (S-Y-R) curve defines the required volume to meet a specific yield. It is typically obtained through the historical streamflow time series; however, as an effect of nonstationarity, the statistical properties of a streamflow series may vary, which might lead to a change in the reservoir’s operational risk. In this study we explore this issue by analyzing two sets of annual data: (i) natural energy flows to aggregated reservoirs, and (ii) streamflow time series of four hydropower plants currently in operation in Brazil. The study is supported by Monte Carlo simulations to account for the reliability of the S-Y-R curves. Results suggest that the time series from the Southern and Northeast regions exhibit upward and downward trends, respectively. Consequently, the regularization capacity of the Southern reservoir decreased, however only in relative terms. On the other hand, the Northeastern reservoir had an actual loss of its regularization capacity as an effect of lower average streamflow.Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312022000100229RBRH v.27 2022reponame:RBRH (Online)instname:Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)instacron:ABRH10.1590/2318-0331.272220220043info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessDegraf,HenriqueDetzel,Daniel Henrique Marcoeng2022-11-16T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2318-03312022000100229Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/rbrh/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rbrh@abrh.org.br2318-03311414-381Xopendoar:2022-11-16T00:00RBRH (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
title Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
spellingShingle Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
Degraf,Henrique
Trend
Storage-yield-reliability curve
Reservoir
Regularization
title_short Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
title_full Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
title_fullStr Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
title_full_unstemmed Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
title_sort Influence of nonstationarity on reservoir storage-yield-reliability relationships
author Degraf,Henrique
author_facet Degraf,Henrique
Detzel,Daniel Henrique Marco
author_role author
author2 Detzel,Daniel Henrique Marco
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Degraf,Henrique
Detzel,Daniel Henrique Marco
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Trend
Storage-yield-reliability curve
Reservoir
Regularization
topic Trend
Storage-yield-reliability curve
Reservoir
Regularization
description ABSTRACT The reservoir storage-yield-reliability (S-Y-R) curve defines the required volume to meet a specific yield. It is typically obtained through the historical streamflow time series; however, as an effect of nonstationarity, the statistical properties of a streamflow series may vary, which might lead to a change in the reservoir’s operational risk. In this study we explore this issue by analyzing two sets of annual data: (i) natural energy flows to aggregated reservoirs, and (ii) streamflow time series of four hydropower plants currently in operation in Brazil. The study is supported by Monte Carlo simulations to account for the reliability of the S-Y-R curves. Results suggest that the time series from the Southern and Northeast regions exhibit upward and downward trends, respectively. Consequently, the regularization capacity of the Southern reservoir decreased, however only in relative terms. On the other hand, the Northeastern reservoir had an actual loss of its regularization capacity as an effect of lower average streamflow.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312022000100229
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dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/2318-0331.272220220043
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv RBRH v.27 2022
reponame:RBRH (Online)
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reponame_str RBRH (Online)
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