Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: De Paiva,Luana Ferreira Gomes
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Montenegro,Suzana Maria, Cataldi,Marcio
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: RBRH (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100215
Resumo: ABSTRACT Despite the water crisis in 2016, 76% of the energy in Brazil was generated by hydroelectric plants, which shows that the Brazilian system is still strongly dependent on the hydrological conditions of basins. Therefore, the flow forecasts for these plants subsidize the decision making within the scope of the Electric Sector, since they allow the evaluation of the operational conditions of the hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants through the use of energy optimization models, providing gains in the operations of SIN (Sistema Interligado Nacional – the Brazilian National Interconnected System). The precipitation forecast is of fundamental importance for the elaboration of these hydroelectric flow forecasts. For energy evaluations, the DECOMP and NEWAVE models are used, with the GEVAZP model being applied to generate scenarios through an AR (p) (autoregressive) model. Accordingly, this study shows the impact of precipitation forecast on flow predictions in the climate horizon. For this, a statistical correction was made in the rain predicted by the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model, which tends to overestimate the predicted rain, with rainfall-flow models being calibrated. Tests were performed with this new modeling system and the results, in the form of scenarios, were compared with the scenarios generated by the GEVAZP model, showing the possibility of reducing the generated range by the latter, consequently causing the DECOMP model to not consider ranges with little or no probability of occurrence, which can improve the optimization of the SIN operation planning. This work also shows that the SMAP model exhibited better performance when compared to the Neural Networks model, in terms of the average flow range predicted in relation to the observed flow. There was a clear improvement in the flow predictions with the incorporation of the rain observed one month ahead in the simulations, mainly in the forecast of high flows. Finally, the climate indices had a good relationship with the flow and rain variables.
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spelling Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast modelFlow forecastSão Francisco riverNeural Networks (NN)SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure)Precipitation forecastHydrological simulationABSTRACT Despite the water crisis in 2016, 76% of the energy in Brazil was generated by hydroelectric plants, which shows that the Brazilian system is still strongly dependent on the hydrological conditions of basins. Therefore, the flow forecasts for these plants subsidize the decision making within the scope of the Electric Sector, since they allow the evaluation of the operational conditions of the hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants through the use of energy optimization models, providing gains in the operations of SIN (Sistema Interligado Nacional – the Brazilian National Interconnected System). The precipitation forecast is of fundamental importance for the elaboration of these hydroelectric flow forecasts. For energy evaluations, the DECOMP and NEWAVE models are used, with the GEVAZP model being applied to generate scenarios through an AR (p) (autoregressive) model. Accordingly, this study shows the impact of precipitation forecast on flow predictions in the climate horizon. For this, a statistical correction was made in the rain predicted by the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model, which tends to overestimate the predicted rain, with rainfall-flow models being calibrated. Tests were performed with this new modeling system and the results, in the form of scenarios, were compared with the scenarios generated by the GEVAZP model, showing the possibility of reducing the generated range by the latter, consequently causing the DECOMP model to not consider ranges with little or no probability of occurrence, which can improve the optimization of the SIN operation planning. This work also shows that the SMAP model exhibited better performance when compared to the Neural Networks model, in terms of the average flow range predicted in relation to the observed flow. There was a clear improvement in the flow predictions with the incorporation of the rain observed one month ahead in the simulations, mainly in the forecast of high flows. Finally, the climate indices had a good relationship with the flow and rain variables.Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos2020-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100215RBRH v.25 2020reponame:RBRH (Online)instname:Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)instacron:ABRH10.1590/2318-0331.252020190067info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessDe Paiva,Luana Ferreira GomesMontenegro,Suzana MariaCataldi,Marcioeng2020-04-14T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2318-03312020000100215Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/rbrh/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rbrh@abrh.org.br2318-03311414-381Xopendoar:2020-04-14T00:00RBRH (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
title Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
spellingShingle Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
De Paiva,Luana Ferreira Gomes
Flow forecast
São Francisco river
Neural Networks (NN)
SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure)
Precipitation forecast
Hydrological simulation
title_short Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
title_full Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
title_fullStr Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
title_sort Prediction of monthly flows for Três Marias reservoir (São Francisco river basin) using the CFS climate forecast model
author De Paiva,Luana Ferreira Gomes
author_facet De Paiva,Luana Ferreira Gomes
Montenegro,Suzana Maria
Cataldi,Marcio
author_role author
author2 Montenegro,Suzana Maria
Cataldi,Marcio
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv De Paiva,Luana Ferreira Gomes
Montenegro,Suzana Maria
Cataldi,Marcio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Flow forecast
São Francisco river
Neural Networks (NN)
SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure)
Precipitation forecast
Hydrological simulation
topic Flow forecast
São Francisco river
Neural Networks (NN)
SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure)
Precipitation forecast
Hydrological simulation
description ABSTRACT Despite the water crisis in 2016, 76% of the energy in Brazil was generated by hydroelectric plants, which shows that the Brazilian system is still strongly dependent on the hydrological conditions of basins. Therefore, the flow forecasts for these plants subsidize the decision making within the scope of the Electric Sector, since they allow the evaluation of the operational conditions of the hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants through the use of energy optimization models, providing gains in the operations of SIN (Sistema Interligado Nacional – the Brazilian National Interconnected System). The precipitation forecast is of fundamental importance for the elaboration of these hydroelectric flow forecasts. For energy evaluations, the DECOMP and NEWAVE models are used, with the GEVAZP model being applied to generate scenarios through an AR (p) (autoregressive) model. Accordingly, this study shows the impact of precipitation forecast on flow predictions in the climate horizon. For this, a statistical correction was made in the rain predicted by the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model, which tends to overestimate the predicted rain, with rainfall-flow models being calibrated. Tests were performed with this new modeling system and the results, in the form of scenarios, were compared with the scenarios generated by the GEVAZP model, showing the possibility of reducing the generated range by the latter, consequently causing the DECOMP model to not consider ranges with little or no probability of occurrence, which can improve the optimization of the SIN operation planning. This work also shows that the SMAP model exhibited better performance when compared to the Neural Networks model, in terms of the average flow range predicted in relation to the observed flow. There was a clear improvement in the flow predictions with the incorporation of the rain observed one month ahead in the simulations, mainly in the forecast of high flows. Finally, the climate indices had a good relationship with the flow and rain variables.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100215
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100215
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/2318-0331.252020190067
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv RBRH v.25 2020
reponame:RBRH (Online)
instname:Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)
instacron:ABRH
instname_str Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)
instacron_str ABRH
institution ABRH
reponame_str RBRH (Online)
collection RBRH (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv RBRH (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rbrh@abrh.org.br
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