Modelling and forecasting international tourism demand in Puno-Peru

• Autor(a) principal: Laurente Blanco, Luis Francisco
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Machaca Hancco, Ronald Wilson
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: spa; eng
• Título da fonte: Revista Brasileira de Pesquisa em Turismo
• Texto Completo: https://rbtur.org.br/rbtur/article/view/1606
• topic: Seasonality; Titicaca lake; Peru; ARIMA; Culture; Estacionalidad; Lago Titicaca; Perú; ARIMA; Cultura; Sazonalidade; lago Titicaca; Peru; ARIMA; Cultura

The tourism industry in Peru generates about 1.1 million jobs and contributes 3.3% of GDP, which makes it one of its main economic activities, so tourism is no longer just a commercial activity and transforms into a tool for the development of the Peruvian population especially in regions with high poverty rate and with numerous tourist attractions as it is the case of the Puno region with a poverty rate of 24.2% that is located in the south of the country and that has numerous tourist attractions of natural, historical, cultural and gastronomic type. The objective of this research is to model and forecasting the demand of international tourists visiting Puno using the ARIMA methodology of Box-Jenkins, for this the study considers monthly arrival information of foreign tourists between the years 2003 to 2017. Finally, using the statistics MAPE, Z, r, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion (SC) was identified to the SARIMA (6, 1, 24)(1, 0, 1)12  model as the most efficient for modeling and forecasting of the demand for international tourism in the Puno region.