Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro
Data de Publicação: 2011
Outros Autores: Castilho, César Augusto Rodrigues, Braga, Cynthia de, Souza, Wayner Vieira, Regis, Leda, Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31289
Resumo: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre. São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil.
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spelling Medeiros, Líliam César de CastroCastilho, César Augusto RodriguesBraga, Cynthia deSouza, Wayner VieiraRegis, LedaMonteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira2019-01-24T13:40:45Z2019-01-24T13:40:45Z2011DE CASTRO MEDEIROS, Líliam César et al. Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 5, n. 1, p. e942, 11 jan. 2011.1935-2735https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3128910.1371/journal.pntd.0000942engModeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistenceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre. São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE). Departamento de Matemática. Recife, PE, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Departamento de Parasitologia. Recife, PE, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Departamento de Saúde Coletiva. Recife, PE, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Departamento de Entomologia. Recife, PE, Brasil.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Divisão de Processamento de Imagens. São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil.Background Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral transmission during extended periods. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito populations are individually monitored during the simulations. Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were performed: (1st) varying human renewal rates and human population sizes and (2nd) varying the house index (fraction of infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we question the current methodology used in calculating the house index, based on larval survey. Conclusions/Significance This study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of house index values, in order to improve the dengue monitoring and control system.Aedes / crescimento e desenvolvimentoAedes / virologiaAnimaisBrasil / epidemiologiaCidadesDengue / epidemiologiaDengue / transmissãoFêmeaHumanosVetores de insetos / crescimento e desenvolvimentoVetores de insetos / virologiaModelos, estatísticosDensidade populacionalDinâmica populacionalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83094https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/31289/1/license.txtee3692f7b0b97d5638099ab94397d05fMD51ORIGINALModeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever.pdfModeling the Dynamic Transmission of 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
title Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
spellingShingle Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro
Aedes / crescimento e desenvolvimento
Aedes / virologia
Animais
Brasil / epidemiologia
Cidades
Dengue / epidemiologia
Dengue / transmissão
Fêmea
Humanos
Vetores de insetos / crescimento e desenvolvimento
Vetores de insetos / virologia
Modelos, estatísticos
Densidade populacional
Dinâmica populacional
title_short Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
title_full Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
title_fullStr Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
title_sort Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence
author Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro
author_facet Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro
Castilho, César Augusto Rodrigues
Braga, Cynthia de
Souza, Wayner Vieira
Regis, Leda
Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira
author_role author
author2 Castilho, César Augusto Rodrigues
Braga, Cynthia de
Souza, Wayner Vieira
Regis, Leda
Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro
Castilho, César Augusto Rodrigues
Braga, Cynthia de
Souza, Wayner Vieira
Regis, Leda
Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira
dc.subject.decs.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Aedes / crescimento e desenvolvimento
Aedes / virologia
Animais
Brasil / epidemiologia
Cidades
Dengue / epidemiologia
Dengue / transmissão
Fêmea
Humanos
Vetores de insetos / crescimento e desenvolvimento
Vetores de insetos / virologia
Modelos, estatísticos
Densidade populacional
Dinâmica populacional
topic Aedes / crescimento e desenvolvimento
Aedes / virologia
Animais
Brasil / epidemiologia
Cidades
Dengue / epidemiologia
Dengue / transmissão
Fêmea
Humanos
Vetores de insetos / crescimento e desenvolvimento
Vetores de insetos / virologia
Modelos, estatísticos
Densidade populacional
Dinâmica populacional
description Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre. São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2011
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2019-01-24T13:40:45Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2019-01-24T13:40:45Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv DE CASTRO MEDEIROS, Líliam César et al. Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 5, n. 1, p. e942, 11 jan. 2011.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31289
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1935-2735
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942
identifier_str_mv DE CASTRO MEDEIROS, Líliam César et al. Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 5, n. 1, p. e942, 11 jan. 2011.
1935-2735
10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31289
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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institution FIOCRUZ
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collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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