The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Lee, Sophie A.
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Economou, Theodoros, Catão, Rafael de Castro, Barcellos, Christovam, Lowe, Rachel
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/61021
Resumo: S.A.L. was supported by a Royal Society Research Grant for Research Fellows. https://royalsociety.org/.
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spelling Lee, Sophie A.Economou, TheodorosCatão, Rafael de CastroBarcellos, ChristovamLowe, Rachel2023-11-03T13:03:07Z2023-11-03T13:03:07Z2021LEE, Sophie A. et al. The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (PLoS NTDs), v. 15, n. 12, p. 1-21, 9 Dec. 2021.1935-2727https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/6102110.1371/journal.pntd.00097731935-2735S.A.L. was supported by a Royal Society Research Grant for Research Fellows. https://royalsociety.org/.R.L. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship https://royalsociety.org/.T.E. was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 856612 https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/funding/funding-opportunities/fundingprogrammes-and-open-calls/horizon-europe_en and the Cyprus Government.C.B. was funded by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development under grant No. 303985/2019-4 (http://www.cnpq.br/)London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health. London, United Kingdom.The Cyprus Institute. Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre. Nicosia, Cyprus.Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo. Departamento de Geografia. Vitoria, ES, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health. London, United Kingdom / Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Barcelona, Spain.Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.engPublic Library of ScienceThe impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleDengue feverBrazilCitiesUrbanizationAedes aegyptiUrban areasGeographyMosquitoesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/61021/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALartigo.pdfartigo.pdfartigoapplication/pdf3723306https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/61021/2/artigo.pdfa0100226b2827e0c5d6ff4cda64ff74cMD52icict/610212023-11-07 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dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
title The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
spellingShingle The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
Lee, Sophie A.
Dengue fever
Brazil
Cities
Urbanization
Aedes aegypti
Urban areas
Geography
Mosquitoes
title_short The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
title_full The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
title_fullStr The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
title_full_unstemmed The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
title_sort The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil
author Lee, Sophie A.
author_facet Lee, Sophie A.
Economou, Theodoros
Catão, Rafael de Castro
Barcellos, Christovam
Lowe, Rachel
author_role author
author2 Economou, Theodoros
Catão, Rafael de Castro
Barcellos, Christovam
Lowe, Rachel
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lee, Sophie A.
Economou, Theodoros
Catão, Rafael de Castro
Barcellos, Christovam
Lowe, Rachel
dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv Dengue fever
Brazil
Cities
Urbanization
Aedes aegypti
Urban areas
Geography
Mosquitoes
topic Dengue fever
Brazil
Cities
Urbanization
Aedes aegypti
Urban areas
Geography
Mosquitoes
description S.A.L. was supported by a Royal Society Research Grant for Research Fellows. https://royalsociety.org/.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-11-03T13:03:07Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-11-03T13:03:07Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv LEE, Sophie A. et al. The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (PLoS NTDs), v. 15, n. 12, p. 1-21, 9 Dec. 2021.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/61021
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1935-2727
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 1935-2735
identifier_str_mv LEE, Sophie A. et al. The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (PLoS NTDs), v. 15, n. 12, p. 1-21, 9 Dec. 2021.
1935-2727
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773
1935-2735
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/61021
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
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collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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