Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Braga, Jose Ueleres
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Ramos Jr, Alberto Novaes, Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes, Lacerda, Victor Macêdo, Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca, Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/43991
Resumo: Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Medicina Social. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Departamento de Epidemiologia e Métodos Quantitativos em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
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spelling Braga, Jose UeleresRamos Jr, Alberto NovaesFerreira, Anderson FuentesLacerda, Victor MacêdoFreire, Renan Monteiro CariocaBertoncini, Bruno Vieira2020-10-14T21:38:53Z2020-10-14T21:38:53Z2020BRAGA, Jose Ueleres et al. Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020. BMC Public Health, v. 20, p. 1-11, 2020.1471-2458https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/4399110.1186/s12889-020-09558-9engBioMed CentralCOVID-19Vigilância em Saúde PúblicaSurtos de DoençasCOVID-19Public Health SurveillanceDisease OutbreaksCoronavirus InfectionsPublic Health SurveillanceDisease OutbreaksPropensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleUniversidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Medicina Social. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Departamento de Epidemiologia e Métodos Quantitativos em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Ceará. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Saúde Comunitária. Fortaleza, CE, Brasil / Universidade Federal do Ceará. Faculdade de Medicina. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública. Fortaleza, CE, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Ceará. Faculdade de Medicina. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública. Fortaleza, CE, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Conservação e Serviços Públicos. Fortaleza, CE, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Conservação e Serviços Públicos. Fortaleza, CE, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Ceará. Centro de Tecnologia. Departamento de Engenharia de Transporte. Fortaleza, CE, Brasil.Background: The state of Ceará (Northeast Brazil) has shown a high incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and most of the cases that were diagnosed during the epidemic originated from the capital Fortaleza. Monitoring the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic is of strategic importance and requires the use of sensitive tools for epidemiological surveillance, including consistent analyses that allow the recognition of areas with a greater propensity for increased severity throughout the cycle of the epidemic. This study aims to classify neighborhoods in the city of Fortaleza according to their propensity for a severe epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020. Methods: We conducted an ecological study within the geographical area of the 119 neighborhoods located in the city of Fortaleza. To define the main transmission networks (infection chains), we assumed that the spatial diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic was influenced by population mobility. To measure the propensity for a severe epidemic, we calculated the infectivity burden (ItyB), infection burden (IonB), and population epidemic vulnerability index (PEVI). The propensity score for a severe epidemic in the neighborhoods of the city of Fortaleza was estimated by combining the IonB and PEVI. Results: The neighborhoods with the highest propensity for a severe COVID-19 epidemic were Aldeota, Cais do Porto, Centro, Edson Queiroz, Vicente Pinzon, Jose de Alencar, Presidente Kennedy, Papicu, Vila Velha, Antonio Bezerra, and Cambeba. Importantly, we found that the propensity for a COVID-19 epidemic was high in areas with differing socioeconomic profiles. These areas include a very poor neighborhood situated on the western border of the city (Vila Velha), neighborhoods characterized by a large number of subnormal agglomerates in the Cais do Porto region (Vicente Pinzon), and those located in the oldest central area of the city, where despite the wealth, low-income groups have remained (Aldeota and the adjacent Edson Queiroz). Conclusion: Although measures against COVID-19 should be applied to the entire municipality of Fortaleza, the classification of neighborhoods generated through this study can help improve the specificity and efficiency of these measures.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/43991/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALPropensityCOVID19.pdfPropensityCOVID19.pdfapplication/pdf2372810https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/43991/2/PropensityCOVID19.pdfb725b7a28acb9a98bcf04ab0f51ad1cdMD52TEXTPropensityCOVID19.pdf.txtPropensityCOVID19.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain34763https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/43991/3/PropensityCOVID19.pdf.txt9ab8e4d3665b9d74aed3c1c7e6d49223MD53icict/439912020-10-15 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
spellingShingle Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
Braga, Jose Ueleres
COVID-19
Vigilância em Saúde Pública
Surtos de Doenças
COVID-19
Public Health Surveillance
Disease Outbreaks
Coronavirus Infections
Public Health Surveillance
Disease Outbreaks
title_short Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_full Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_fullStr Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_full_unstemmed Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
title_sort Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020
author Braga, Jose Ueleres
author_facet Braga, Jose Ueleres
Ramos Jr, Alberto Novaes
Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes
Lacerda, Victor Macêdo
Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca
Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
author_role author
author2 Ramos Jr, Alberto Novaes
Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes
Lacerda, Victor Macêdo
Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca
Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Braga, Jose Ueleres
Ramos Jr, Alberto Novaes
Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes
Lacerda, Victor Macêdo
Freire, Renan Monteiro Carioca
Bertoncini, Bruno Vieira
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Vigilância em Saúde Pública
Surtos de Doenças
topic COVID-19
Vigilância em Saúde Pública
Surtos de Doenças
COVID-19
Public Health Surveillance
Disease Outbreaks
Coronavirus Infections
Public Health Surveillance
Disease Outbreaks
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Public Health Surveillance
Disease Outbreaks
dc.subject.decs.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Coronavirus Infections
Public Health Surveillance
Disease Outbreaks
description Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Medicina Social. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Departamento de Epidemiologia e Métodos Quantitativos em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2020-10-14T21:38:53Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2020-10-14T21:38:53Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv BRAGA, Jose Ueleres et al. Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020. BMC Public Health, v. 20, p. 1-11, 2020.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/43991
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1471-2458
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1186/s12889-020-09558-9
identifier_str_mv BRAGA, Jose Ueleres et al. Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020. BMC Public Health, v. 20, p. 1-11, 2020.
1471-2458
10.1186/s12889-020-09558-9
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/43991
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv BioMed Central
publisher.none.fl_str_mv BioMed Central
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
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instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
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reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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