Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Benvenuto, Domenico
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Giovanetti, Marta, Vassallo, Lazzaro, Angeletti, Silvia, Ciccozzi, Massimo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/40791
Resumo: Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
id CRUZ_1350cbe0a1b71293519e9f9a6aa1ea88
oai_identifier_str oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br:icict/40791
network_acronym_str CRUZ
network_name_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
repository_id_str 2135
spelling Benvenuto, DomenicoGiovanetti, MartaVassallo, LazzaroAngeletti, SilviaCiccozzi, Massimo2020-04-15T20:18:58Z2020-04-15T20:18:58Z2020BENVENUTO, Domenico et al. Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data in Brief, v. 29, p. 1-5, 2020.2352-3409https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/4079110.1016/j.dib.2020.10534010.1016/j.dib.2020.105340Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome. Unit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology. Rome, Italy.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.University of Salerno. Department of Financial and Statistical Sciences. Salerno, Italy.University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome. Unit of Clinical Laboratory Science. Rome, Italy.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) has been recognized as a global threat, and several studies are being conducted using various mathematical models to predict the probable evolution of this epidemic. These mathematical models based on various factors and analyses are subject to potential bias. Here, we propose a simple econometric model that could be useful to predict the spread of COVID-2019. We performed Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model prediction on the Johns Hopkins epidemiological data to predict the epidemiological trend of the prevalence and incidence of COVID-2019. For further comparison or for future perspective, case definition and data collection have to be maintained in real time.engElsevierEpidemiaModelo ARIMAControle de infecçãoPrevisãoCOVID-19CoronavírusEpidemicARIMA modelForecastInfection controlCOVID-19CoronavirusApplication of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic datasetinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83134https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/40791/1/license.txt0ab46789d568c4ba27c7b5d29a9fe9c4MD51ORIGINALBenvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdfBenvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdfapplication/pdf486624https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/40791/2/Benvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdfe3ffc65c63d7b1b7664dfba3e878ef5dMD52TEXTBenvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdf.txtBenvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain9580https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/40791/3/Benvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdf.txtc2de2228565909a30bfd57b5ada9b964MD53icict/407912020-07-03 11:43:56.274oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352020-07-03T14:43:56Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
title Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
spellingShingle Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
Benvenuto, Domenico
Epidemia
Modelo ARIMA
Controle de infecção
Previsão
COVID-19
Coronavírus
Epidemic
ARIMA model
Forecast
Infection control
COVID-19
Coronavirus
title_short Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
title_full Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
title_fullStr Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
title_full_unstemmed Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
title_sort Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
author Benvenuto, Domenico
author_facet Benvenuto, Domenico
Giovanetti, Marta
Vassallo, Lazzaro
Angeletti, Silvia
Ciccozzi, Massimo
author_role author
author2 Giovanetti, Marta
Vassallo, Lazzaro
Angeletti, Silvia
Ciccozzi, Massimo
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Benvenuto, Domenico
Giovanetti, Marta
Vassallo, Lazzaro
Angeletti, Silvia
Ciccozzi, Massimo
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Epidemia
Modelo ARIMA
Controle de infecção
Previsão
COVID-19
Coronavírus
topic Epidemia
Modelo ARIMA
Controle de infecção
Previsão
COVID-19
Coronavírus
Epidemic
ARIMA model
Forecast
Infection control
COVID-19
Coronavirus
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Epidemic
ARIMA model
Forecast
Infection control
COVID-19
Coronavirus
description Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2020-04-15T20:18:58Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2020-04-15T20:18:58Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv BENVENUTO, Domenico et al. Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data in Brief, v. 29, p. 1-5, 2020.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/40791
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 2352-3409
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 10.1016/j.dib.2020.105340
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 10.1016/j.dib.2020.105340
identifier_str_mv BENVENUTO, Domenico et al. Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data in Brief, v. 29, p. 1-5, 2020.
2352-3409
10.1016/j.dib.2020.105340
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/40791
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/40791/1/license.txt
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/40791/2/Benvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdf
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/40791/3/Benvenuto_Domenico_etal_IOC_2020_Application.pdf.txt
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 0ab46789d568c4ba27c7b5d29a9fe9c4
e3ffc65c63d7b1b7664dfba3e878ef5d
c2de2228565909a30bfd57b5ada9b964
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv repositorio.arca@fiocruz.br
_version_ 1798324786584092672

Registros relacionados