An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: James, Ananthu
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Dalal, Jyoti, Kousi, Timokleia, Vivacqua, Daniela, Câmara, Daniel Cardoso Portela, Reis, Izabel Cristina Dos, Mesa, Sara Botero, Ng’ambi, Wignston, Ansobi, Papy, Bianchi, Lucas M, Lee, Theresa M, Ogundiran, Opeayo, Stoll, Beat, Chimbetete, Cleophas, Mboussou, Franck, Impouma, Benido, Hofer, Cristina Barroso, Coelho, Flávio Codeço, Keiser, Olivia, Abbate, Jessica Lee
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
DOI: 10.1136/ bmjgh-2021-007295
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/56878
Resumo: Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India /The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland.
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spelling James, AnanthuDalal, JyotiKousi, TimokleiaVivacqua, DanielaCâmara, Daniel Cardoso PortelaReis, Izabel Cristina DosMesa, Sara BoteroNg’ambi, WignstonAnsobi, PapyBianchi, Lucas MLee, Theresa MOgundiran, OpeayoStoll, BeatChimbetete, CleophasMboussou, FranckImpouma, BenidoHofer, Cristina BarrosoCoelho, Flávio CodeçoKeiser, OliviaAbbate, Jessica Lee2023-02-06T13:20:52Z2023-02-06T13:20:52Z2022JAMES, Ananthu et al. An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region. BMJ Global Health v. 7, e007295, p. 1-10, Feb. 2022.2059-7908https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/5687810.1136/ bmjgh-2021-007295engBMJ OpenCOVID-19Análise estatísticaPropagação inicial da pandemiaRegião africana da OMSCOVID-19Statistical analysisPandemic’s initial spreadWHO African regionAn in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African regioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India /The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Puericultura e Pediatria Martagão Gesteira. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Mosquitos Transmissores de Hematozoários. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Núcleo Operacional Sentinela de Mosquitos Vetores (NOSMOVE). Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laborat[orio de Mosquitos Transmissores de Hematozoários. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Núcleo Operacional Sentinela de Mosquitos Vetores (NOSMOVE). Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland / Health Economics Policy Unit, Department of Health Systems and Policy, Kamuzu University of Health Sciences, Lilongwe, Malawi.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Research and Training Unit in Ecology and Control of Infectious Diseases (URF-ECMI), Faculty of Medicine, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo.World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo.Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Newlands Clinic, Harare, Zimbabwe.World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo.World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Puericultura e Pediatria Martagão Gesteira. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / School of Applied Mathematics, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland / World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo / UMI TransVIHMI (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale Université de Montpellier), Montpellier, France / Geomatys, Montpellier, France.During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, sub-Saharan African countries experienced comparatively lower rates of SARS-CoV- 2 infections and related deaths than in other parts of the world, the reasons for which remain unclear. Yet, there was also considerable variation between countries. Here, we explored potential drivers of this variation among 46 of the 47 WHO African region Member States in a cross-sectional study. We described five indicators of early COVID-19 spread and severity for each country as of 29 November 2020: delay in detection of the first case, length of the early epidemic growth period, cumulative and peak attack rates and crude case fatality ratio (CFR). We tested the influence of 13 pre-pandemic and pandemic response predictor variables on the country-level variation in the spread and severity indicators using multivariate statistics and regression analysis. We found that wealthier African countries, with larger tourism industries and older populations, had higher peak (p<0.001) and cumulative (p<0.001) attack rates, and lower CFRs (p=0.021). More urbanised countries also had higher attack rates (p<0.001 for both indicators). Countries applying more stringent early control policies experienced greater delay in detection of the first case (p<0.001), but the initial propagation of the virus was slower in relatively wealthy, touristic African countries (p=0.023). Careful and early implementation of strict government policies were likely pivotal to delaying the initial phase of the pandemic, but did not have much impact on other indicators of spread and severity. An over-reliance on disruptive containment measures in more resource-limited contexts is neither effective nor sustainable. We thus urge decision-makers to prioritise the reduction of resource-based health disparities, and surveillance and response capacities in particular, to ensure global resilience against future threats to public health and economic stability.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/56878/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALJames_Ananthu_etal_IOC_2022_COVID-19.pdfJames_Ananthu_etal_IOC_2022_COVID-19.pdfapplication/pdf3425214https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/56878/2/James_Ananthu_etal_IOC_2022_COVID-19.pdfcaf6d39ca0bf4b9f9b1c856ab2c73f59MD52icict/568782023-09-04 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dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
title An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
spellingShingle An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
James, Ananthu
COVID-19
Análise estatística
Propagação inicial da pandemia
Região africana da OMS
COVID-19
Statistical analysis
Pandemic’s initial spread
WHO African region
title_short An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
title_full An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
title_fullStr An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
title_full_unstemmed An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
title_sort An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region
author James, Ananthu
author_facet James, Ananthu
Dalal, Jyoti
Kousi, Timokleia
Vivacqua, Daniela
Câmara, Daniel Cardoso Portela
Reis, Izabel Cristina Dos
Mesa, Sara Botero
Ng’ambi, Wignston
Ansobi, Papy
Bianchi, Lucas M
Lee, Theresa M
Ogundiran, Opeayo
Stoll, Beat
Chimbetete, Cleophas
Mboussou, Franck
Impouma, Benido
Hofer, Cristina Barroso
Coelho, Flávio Codeço
Keiser, Olivia
Abbate, Jessica Lee
author_role author
author2 Dalal, Jyoti
Kousi, Timokleia
Vivacqua, Daniela
Câmara, Daniel Cardoso Portela
Reis, Izabel Cristina Dos
Mesa, Sara Botero
Ng’ambi, Wignston
Ansobi, Papy
Bianchi, Lucas M
Lee, Theresa M
Ogundiran, Opeayo
Stoll, Beat
Chimbetete, Cleophas
Mboussou, Franck
Impouma, Benido
Hofer, Cristina Barroso
Coelho, Flávio Codeço
Keiser, Olivia
Abbate, Jessica Lee
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv James, Ananthu
Dalal, Jyoti
Kousi, Timokleia
Vivacqua, Daniela
Câmara, Daniel Cardoso Portela
Reis, Izabel Cristina Dos
Mesa, Sara Botero
Ng’ambi, Wignston
Ansobi, Papy
Bianchi, Lucas M
Lee, Theresa M
Ogundiran, Opeayo
Stoll, Beat
Chimbetete, Cleophas
Mboussou, Franck
Impouma, Benido
Hofer, Cristina Barroso
Coelho, Flávio Codeço
Keiser, Olivia
Abbate, Jessica Lee
dc.subject.other.en_US.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Análise estatística
Propagação inicial da pandemia
Região africana da OMS
topic COVID-19
Análise estatística
Propagação inicial da pandemia
Região africana da OMS
COVID-19
Statistical analysis
Pandemic’s initial spread
WHO African region
dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Statistical analysis
Pandemic’s initial spread
WHO African region
description Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India /The Global Research and Analysis for Public Health (GRAPH) Network, Association Actions en Santé, Geneva, Switzerland.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-02-06T13:20:52Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-02-06T13:20:52Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv JAMES, Ananthu et al. An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region. BMJ Global Health v. 7, e007295, p. 1-10, Feb. 2022.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/56878
dc.identifier.issn.en_US.fl_str_mv 2059-7908
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1136/ bmjgh-2021-007295
identifier_str_mv JAMES, Ananthu et al. An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region. BMJ Global Health v. 7, e007295, p. 1-10, Feb. 2022.
2059-7908
10.1136/ bmjgh-2021-007295
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/56878
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMJ Open
publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMJ Open
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
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collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/56878/1/license.txt
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/56878/2/James_Ananthu_etal_IOC_2022_COVID-19.pdf
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