On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Massad, E
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Burattini, M Nascimento, Khan, K, Struchiner, C J, Coutinho, F A B, Wilder-Smith, A
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/22829
Resumo: 2018-05-15
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spelling Massad, EBurattini, M NascimentoKhan, KStruchiner, C JCoutinho, F A BWilder-Smith, A2017-10-16T01:35:36Z2017-10-16T01:35:36Z2017MASSAD, E. et al. On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil. Cambridge University Press, 2017.https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/2282910.1017/S0950268817001200engForça da infecçãoPolinésia FrancesaModelos matemáticosRiscosVírus ZikaForce of infectionFrench PolynesiaMathematical modelsRisksZika virusOn the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article2018-05-15School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, BrazilLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UKFederal University of São Paulo, BrazilLi Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, CanadaProgramme of Scientific Computation, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilInstitute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, GermanyDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umea° University, SE-901 85 Umea, SwedenLee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, SingaporeThe timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83070https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/22829/1/license.txt57b868fc2902c1c94c431cf33d6dc251MD51ORIGINALPresidência Fiocruz - On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil (1).pdfPresidência Fiocruz - On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil (1).pdfapplication/pdf251588https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/22829/2/Presid%c3%aancia%20Fiocruz%20-%20On%20the%20origin%20and%20timing%20of%20Zika%20virus%20introduction%20in%20Brazil%20%281%29.pdfb4f2dd1b39effa45ee9fd6044fdde9b2MD52TEXTPresidência Fiocruz - 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
title On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
spellingShingle On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
Massad, E
Força da infecção
Polinésia Francesa
Modelos matemáticos
Riscos
Vírus Zika
Force of infection
French Polynesia
Mathematical models
Risks
Zika virus
title_short On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
title_full On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
title_fullStr On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
title_sort On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
author Massad, E
author_facet Massad, E
Burattini, M Nascimento
Khan, K
Struchiner, C J
Coutinho, F A B
Wilder-Smith, A
author_role author
author2 Burattini, M Nascimento
Khan, K
Struchiner, C J
Coutinho, F A B
Wilder-Smith, A
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Massad, E
Burattini, M Nascimento
Khan, K
Struchiner, C J
Coutinho, F A B
Wilder-Smith, A
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Força da infecção
Polinésia Francesa
Modelos matemáticos
Riscos
Vírus Zika
topic Força da infecção
Polinésia Francesa
Modelos matemáticos
Riscos
Vírus Zika
Force of infection
French Polynesia
Mathematical models
Risks
Zika virus
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Force of infection
French Polynesia
Mathematical models
Risks
Zika virus
description 2018-05-15
publishDate 2017
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2017-10-16T01:35:36Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2017-10-16T01:35:36Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv MASSAD, E. et al. On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil. Cambridge University Press, 2017.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/22829
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 10.1017/S0950268817001200
identifier_str_mv MASSAD, E. et al. On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil. Cambridge University Press, 2017.
10.1017/S0950268817001200
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/22829
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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