Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Assis, Tália Santana Machado de
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Rabello, Ana Lúcia Teles, Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/7656
Resumo: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Laboratório de Pesquisas Clínicas. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
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spelling Assis, Tália Santana Machado deRabello, Ana Lúcia TelesWerneck, Guilherme Loureiro2014-05-28T13:34:54Z2014-05-28T13:34:54Z2012ASSIS, Tália Santana Machado de; RABELLO, Ana Lúcia Teles; WERNECK, Guilherme Loureiro. Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2012, vol.6, pp. e1542.https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/765610.1371/journal.pntd.0001542engPublic Science LibrayPredictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Laboratório de Pesquisas Clínicas. Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Laboratório de Pesquisas Clínicas. Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniversidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Medicina Social. Departamento de Epidemiologia. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrazilBackground and Objectives In Brazil, as in many other affected countries, a large proportion of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) occurs in remote locations and treatment is often performed on basis of clinical suspicion. This study aimed at developing predictive models to help with the clinical management of VL in patients with suggestive clinical of disease. Methods Cases of VL (n = 213) had the diagnosis confirmed by parasitological method, non-cases (n = 119) presented suggestive clinical presentation of VL but a negative parasitological diagnosis and a firm diagnosis of another disease. The original data set was divided into two samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Prediction models based on clinical signs and symptoms, results of laboratory exams and results of five different serological tests, were developed by means of logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART). From these models, clinical-laboratory and diagnostic prediction scores were generated. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value were used to evaluate the models' performance. Results Based on the variables splenomegaly, presence of cough and leukopenia and on the results of five serological tests it was possible to generate six predictive models using logistic regression, showing sensitivity ranging from 90.1 to 99.0% and specificity ranging from 53.0 to 97.2%. Based on the variables splenomegaly, leukopenia, cough, age and weight loss and on the results of five serological tests six predictive models were generated using CART with sensitivity ranging from 90.1 to 97.2% and specificity ranging from 68.4 to 97.4%. The models composed of clinical-laboratory variables and the rk39 rapid test showed the best performance. Conclusion The predictive models showed to be a potential useful tool to assist healthcare systems and control programs in their strategical choices, contributing to more efficient and more rational allocation of healthcare resources.BrazilCoughingDiagnostic medicineForecastingKala-azarLeishmaniasisPhylogenetic analysisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZORIGINALPredictiv.pdfPredictiv.pdfapplication/pdf1672752https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/7656/1/Predictiv.pdf533e1fe9e16cee69a906ec6a689a483aMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81914https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/7656/2/license.txt7d48279ffeed55da8dfe2f8e81f3b81fMD52TEXTPredictiv.pdf.txtPredictiv.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain7https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/7656/5/Predictiv.pdf.txt212b0306580d4f0044d18f9a3edcc832MD55THUMBNAILPredictiv.pdf.jpgPredictiv.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg2276https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/7656/4/Predictiv.pdf.jpg6e78c34e632a92578cc3349cfbdea149MD54icict/76562018-04-06 08:48:47.883oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352018-04-06T11:48:47Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
title Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
spellingShingle Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
Assis, Tália Santana Machado de
Brazil
Coughing
Diagnostic medicine
Forecasting
Kala-azar
Leishmaniasis
Phylogenetic analysis
title_short Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
title_full Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
title_fullStr Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
title_sort Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil
author Assis, Tália Santana Machado de
author_facet Assis, Tália Santana Machado de
Rabello, Ana Lúcia Teles
Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro
author_role author
author2 Rabello, Ana Lúcia Teles
Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Assis, Tália Santana Machado de
Rabello, Ana Lúcia Teles
Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Brazil
Coughing
Diagnostic medicine
Forecasting
Kala-azar
Leishmaniasis
Phylogenetic analysis
topic Brazil
Coughing
Diagnostic medicine
Forecasting
Kala-azar
Leishmaniasis
Phylogenetic analysis
description Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Laboratório de Pesquisas Clínicas. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
publishDate 2012
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2012
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2014-05-28T13:34:54Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2014-05-28T13:34:54Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv ASSIS, Tália Santana Machado de; RABELLO, Ana Lúcia Teles; WERNECK, Guilherme Loureiro. Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2012, vol.6, pp. e1542.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/7656
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001542
identifier_str_mv ASSIS, Tália Santana Machado de; RABELLO, Ana Lúcia Teles; WERNECK, Guilherme Loureiro. Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2012, vol.6, pp. e1542.
10.1371/journal.pntd.0001542
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/7656
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Science Libray
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Science Libray
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