Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Carvalho, Bruno M.
Data de Publicação: 2015
Outros Autores: Rangel, Elizabeth F., Ready, Paul D., Vale, Mariana M.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/13225
Resumo: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
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spelling Carvalho, Bruno M.Rangel, Elizabeth F.Ready, Paul D.Vale, Mariana M.2016-03-22T11:54:09Z2016-03-22T11:54:09Z2015CARVALHO, Bruno M. et al. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change. Plos One, v.10, n.11, e0143282, 21p, Nov. 2015.1932-6203https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/1322510.1371/ journal.pone.0143282engPublic Library of ScienceLeishmaniaAmérica do SulDípteraMudança climáticaVetoresNicho ecológicoLeishmania amazonensisSouth AmericaClimate ChangeLutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellataEcological NicheEcological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Changeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleUniversidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom.Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/13225/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALelizabeth_rangel_etal_IOC_2015.PDFelizabeth_rangel_etal_IOC_2015.PDFapplication/pdf5558989https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/13225/2/elizabeth_rangel_etal_IOC_2015.PDFb3409fc45faf302c8947c14fd895ad6dMD52TEXTelizabeth_rangel_etal_IOC_2015.PDF.txtelizabeth_rangel_etal_IOC_2015.PDF.txtExtracted texttext/plain74255https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/13225/3/elizabeth_rangel_etal_IOC_2015.PDF.txt03f0b1c0c6ae43b2303f4ae0276e163fMD53icict/132252023-09-05 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
title Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
spellingShingle Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
Carvalho, Bruno M.
Leishmania
América do Sul
Díptera
Mudança climática
Vetores
Nicho ecológico
Leishmania amazonensis
South America
Climate Change
Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata
Ecological Niche
title_short Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
title_full Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
title_fullStr Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
title_sort Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
author Carvalho, Bruno M.
author_facet Carvalho, Bruno M.
Rangel, Elizabeth F.
Ready, Paul D.
Vale, Mariana M.
author_role author
author2 Rangel, Elizabeth F.
Ready, Paul D.
Vale, Mariana M.
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Carvalho, Bruno M.
Rangel, Elizabeth F.
Ready, Paul D.
Vale, Mariana M.
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Leishmania
América do Sul
Díptera
Mudança climática
Vetores
Nicho ecológico
topic Leishmania
América do Sul
Díptera
Mudança climática
Vetores
Nicho ecológico
Leishmania amazonensis
South America
Climate Change
Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata
Ecological Niche
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Leishmania amazonensis
South America
Climate Change
Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata
Ecological Niche
description Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2015
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2016-03-22T11:54:09Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2016-03-22T11:54:09Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv CARVALHO, Bruno M. et al. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change. Plos One, v.10, n.11, e0143282, 21p, Nov. 2015.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/13225
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1932-6203
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1371/ journal.pone.0143282
identifier_str_mv CARVALHO, Bruno M. et al. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change. Plos One, v.10, n.11, e0143282, 21p, Nov. 2015.
1932-6203
10.1371/ journal.pone.0143282
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/13225
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