Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios
Data de Publicação: 2013
Outros Autores: Scholte, Ronaldo Guilherme Carvalho, Guimarães, Luiz H., Utzinger, Jürg, Vounatsou, Penelope
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/59413
Resumo: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel, Switzerland / University of Basel. Basel, Switzerland.
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spelling Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-AlexiosScholte, Ronaldo Guilherme CarvalhoGuimarães, Luiz H.Utzinger, JürgVounatsou, Penelope2023-07-05T12:33:54Z2023-07-05T12:33:54Z2013KARAGIANNIS-VOULES, Dimitrios-Alexios et al. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 7, n. 5, p. 1-13, e2213, 2013.1935-2735https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/5941310.1371/journal.pntd.0002213engPublic Library of ScienceBayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel, Switzerland / University of Basel. Basel, Switzerland.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel, Switzerland / University of Basel. Basel, Switzerland / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Complexo Hospitalar Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brazil.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel, Switzerland / University of Basel. Basel, Switzerland.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel, Switzerland / University of Basel. Basel, Switzerland.Background: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. Methodology: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010). Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. Principal findings: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676) for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288) for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. Conclusions/significance: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.LeishmaniasisEndemicLeishmaniasis incidenceRisk factorsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZORIGINALpntd.0002213 1..13.pdfpntd.0002213 1..13.pdfapplication/pdf1330806https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59413/2/pntd.0002213%201..13.pdf594cc44f1468f728e830fdf61852760dMD52LICENSElicense.txttext/plain1748https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59413/1/license.txt8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD51icict/594132023-07-05 23:37:55.67oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352023-07-06T02:37:55Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false
dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
title Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
spellingShingle Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios
Leishmaniasis
Endemic
Leishmaniasis incidence
Risk factors
title_short Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
title_full Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
title_fullStr Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
title_sort Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil
author Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios
author_facet Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios
Scholte, Ronaldo Guilherme Carvalho
Guimarães, Luiz H.
Utzinger, Jürg
Vounatsou, Penelope
author_role author
author2 Scholte, Ronaldo Guilherme Carvalho
Guimarães, Luiz H.
Utzinger, Jürg
Vounatsou, Penelope
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios
Scholte, Ronaldo Guilherme Carvalho
Guimarães, Luiz H.
Utzinger, Jürg
Vounatsou, Penelope
dc.subject.en.none.fl_str_mv Leishmaniasis
Endemic
Leishmaniasis incidence
Risk factors
topic Leishmaniasis
Endemic
Leishmaniasis incidence
Risk factors
description Department of Epidemiology and Public Health. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel, Switzerland / University of Basel. Basel, Switzerland.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2013
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-07-05T12:33:54Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-07-05T12:33:54Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv KARAGIANNIS-VOULES, Dimitrios-Alexios et al. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 7, n. 5, p. 1-13, e2213, 2013.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/59413
dc.identifier.issn.en_US.fl_str_mv 1935-2735
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002213
identifier_str_mv KARAGIANNIS-VOULES, Dimitrios-Alexios et al. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Leishmaniasis Incidence in Brazil. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 7, n. 5, p. 1-13, e2213, 2013.
1935-2735
10.1371/journal.pntd.0002213
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/59413
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59413/2/pntd.0002213%201..13.pdf
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59413/1/license.txt
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