Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista de Economia Política |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000200263 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT A number of developing countries mainly in East Asia and Latin America and Russia suffered exchange rate crises in the 1990s. We examine the run up to the crisis in terms of a few macro indicators suggested by various crisis models. We then examine the aftermath of the crisis, in contrast to most empirical work that concentrates on determining the causes of crises. We seek to explain the pre-crisis as well as the post-crisis situation in the light of various crisis models. We find that the first-generation crisis model despite anomalies seems to fit the crises in Latin American countries whereas it does not fit the crisis in the Asian countries. The Russian case is different from any of the crisis models. The crisis eliminated the Dutch disease aspects leading to a large increase in exports and an improvement in the current account balance. This resulted in a higher growth rate of GDP. We also find that the exchange market pressure index is not successful in predicting the crises. |
id |
EDITORA_34-1_3be3006fc303c8b294e5b28958054e31 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:scielo:S0101-31572022000200263 |
network_acronym_str |
EDITORA_34-1 |
network_name_str |
Revista de Economia Política |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and RussiaMonetary regimecurrency crisisbalance of paymentsABSTRACT A number of developing countries mainly in East Asia and Latin America and Russia suffered exchange rate crises in the 1990s. We examine the run up to the crisis in terms of a few macro indicators suggested by various crisis models. We then examine the aftermath of the crisis, in contrast to most empirical work that concentrates on determining the causes of crises. We seek to explain the pre-crisis as well as the post-crisis situation in the light of various crisis models. We find that the first-generation crisis model despite anomalies seems to fit the crises in Latin American countries whereas it does not fit the crisis in the Asian countries. The Russian case is different from any of the crisis models. The crisis eliminated the Dutch disease aspects leading to a large increase in exports and an improvement in the current account balance. This resulted in a higher growth rate of GDP. We also find that the exchange market pressure index is not successful in predicting the crises.Centro de Economia Política2022-04-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000200263Brazilian Journal of Political Economy v.42 n.2 2022reponame:Revista de Economia Políticainstname:EDITORA 34instacron:EDITORA_3410.1590/0101-31572022-3299info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAGARWAL,MANMOHANVANDANA,T. R.eng2022-05-02T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0101-31572022000200263Revistahttps://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journalONGhttps://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/oai||cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br1809-45380101-3157opendoar:2022-05-02T00:00Revista de Economia Política - EDITORA 34false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia |
title |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia |
spellingShingle |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia AGARWAL,MANMOHAN Monetary regime currency crisis balance of payments |
title_short |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia |
title_full |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia |
title_fullStr |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia |
title_sort |
Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia |
author |
AGARWAL,MANMOHAN |
author_facet |
AGARWAL,MANMOHAN VANDANA,T. R. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
VANDANA,T. R. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
AGARWAL,MANMOHAN VANDANA,T. R. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Monetary regime currency crisis balance of payments |
topic |
Monetary regime currency crisis balance of payments |
description |
ABSTRACT A number of developing countries mainly in East Asia and Latin America and Russia suffered exchange rate crises in the 1990s. We examine the run up to the crisis in terms of a few macro indicators suggested by various crisis models. We then examine the aftermath of the crisis, in contrast to most empirical work that concentrates on determining the causes of crises. We seek to explain the pre-crisis as well as the post-crisis situation in the light of various crisis models. We find that the first-generation crisis model despite anomalies seems to fit the crises in Latin American countries whereas it does not fit the crisis in the Asian countries. The Russian case is different from any of the crisis models. The crisis eliminated the Dutch disease aspects leading to a large increase in exports and an improvement in the current account balance. This resulted in a higher growth rate of GDP. We also find that the exchange market pressure index is not successful in predicting the crises. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-04-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000200263 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000200263 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0101-31572022-3299 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Economia Política |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Economia Política |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy v.42 n.2 2022 reponame:Revista de Economia Política instname:EDITORA 34 instacron:EDITORA_34 |
instname_str |
EDITORA 34 |
instacron_str |
EDITORA_34 |
institution |
EDITORA_34 |
reponame_str |
Revista de Economia Política |
collection |
Revista de Economia Política |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Economia Política - EDITORA 34 |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br |
_version_ |
1754122482592251904 |