Deuda Externa, Crecimiento y Sostenibilidad

• Autor(a) principal: FRENKEL,ROBERTO
• Data de Publicação: 2004
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: spa
• Título da fonte: Revista de Economia Política
• Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572004000200203
• topic: Sustainability; external debt; growth

ABSTRACT The paper presents a model intended to define and discuss the sustainability of external debts in “emergent markets”. The first sustainability condition is the existence of a maximum in the debt-output ratio. With some simple behavior hypotheses, it is shown that sustainability depends on the initial debt-exports ratio, the rate of growth of exports and the country-risk premium. An endogenous country-risk premium gives room for multiple equilibrium. The model allows the discussion of vulnerability vis-à-vis financial shocks and the propensity of the economy to jump to unsustainable paths. The first sustainability condition is not a stringent one. Two additional sustainability conditions are added: a positive rate of growth and a minimum in the domestic absorption-output ratio. The discussion of multiple equilibrium, vulnerability and the potential instability of sustainability is then extended.