Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista de Economia Política |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000400914 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT In this paper, we follow Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021) and estimate for Mexico a a series of the real exchange rate (RER) that balances the current account for Mexico for the period 2001q1-2019q4. In this process we take into account numerous determinants, including policy variables and financial indicators the evolution of the terms of trade, as well as a proxi for the Balassa-Samuelson effects, inter alia. Our results show that in most of the period analyzed there has been a trend tendency towards overvaluation, with the RER fluctuating above its equilibrium level. With cointegrating methods, and dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) techniques, we examined the effects of exchange rate under and overvaluation on manufacturing; disaggregated in three sectors: i) technology intensive, ii) natural resource intensive and iii) labor intensive activities. Overall, our results indicate that the real exchange rate has a significant influence on the rate of expansion of Mexico’s manufacturing real GDP. |
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Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019Real exchange rate equilibriumcurrent accountmanufacturing activityMexico.ABSTRACT In this paper, we follow Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021) and estimate for Mexico a a series of the real exchange rate (RER) that balances the current account for Mexico for the period 2001q1-2019q4. In this process we take into account numerous determinants, including policy variables and financial indicators the evolution of the terms of trade, as well as a proxi for the Balassa-Samuelson effects, inter alia. Our results show that in most of the period analyzed there has been a trend tendency towards overvaluation, with the RER fluctuating above its equilibrium level. With cointegrating methods, and dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) techniques, we examined the effects of exchange rate under and overvaluation on manufacturing; disaggregated in three sectors: i) technology intensive, ii) natural resource intensive and iii) labor intensive activities. Overall, our results indicate that the real exchange rate has a significant influence on the rate of expansion of Mexico’s manufacturing real GDP.Centro de Economia Política2022-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000400914Brazilian Journal of Political Economy v.42 n.4 2022reponame:Revista de Economia Políticainstname:EDITORA 34instacron:EDITORA_3410.1590/0101-31572022-3440info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessNALIN,LORENZOBRID,JUAN CARLOS MORENOeng2022-12-14T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0101-31572022000400914Revistahttps://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journalONGhttps://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/oai||cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br1809-45380101-3157opendoar:2022-12-14T00:00Revista de Economia Política - EDITORA 34false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 |
title |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 |
spellingShingle |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 NALIN,LORENZO Real exchange rate equilibrium current account manufacturing activity Mexico. |
title_short |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 |
title_full |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 |
title_fullStr |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 |
title_sort |
Current account and real exchange rate equilibrium: the case of manufacturing in Mexico, 2001-2019 |
author |
NALIN,LORENZO |
author_facet |
NALIN,LORENZO BRID,JUAN CARLOS MORENO |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
BRID,JUAN CARLOS MORENO |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
NALIN,LORENZO BRID,JUAN CARLOS MORENO |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Real exchange rate equilibrium current account manufacturing activity Mexico. |
topic |
Real exchange rate equilibrium current account manufacturing activity Mexico. |
description |
ABSTRACT In this paper, we follow Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021) and estimate for Mexico a a series of the real exchange rate (RER) that balances the current account for Mexico for the period 2001q1-2019q4. In this process we take into account numerous determinants, including policy variables and financial indicators the evolution of the terms of trade, as well as a proxi for the Balassa-Samuelson effects, inter alia. Our results show that in most of the period analyzed there has been a trend tendency towards overvaluation, with the RER fluctuating above its equilibrium level. With cointegrating methods, and dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) techniques, we examined the effects of exchange rate under and overvaluation on manufacturing; disaggregated in three sectors: i) technology intensive, ii) natural resource intensive and iii) labor intensive activities. Overall, our results indicate that the real exchange rate has a significant influence on the rate of expansion of Mexico’s manufacturing real GDP. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000400914 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572022000400914 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0101-31572022-3440 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Economia Política |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Economia Política |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy v.42 n.4 2022 reponame:Revista de Economia Política instname:EDITORA 34 instacron:EDITORA_34 |
instname_str |
EDITORA 34 |
instacron_str |
EDITORA_34 |
institution |
EDITORA_34 |
reponame_str |
Revista de Economia Política |
collection |
Revista de Economia Política |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Economia Política - EDITORA 34 |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br |
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1754122482720178176 |