Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Simioni, Flávio José
Data de Publicação: 2011
Outros Autores: Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira (Online)
Texto Completo: https://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/215
Resumo: Economic evaluation of investment projects of is usually used as a form to search for parameters that are indicative of its viability. However, a condition of uncertainty in relation to the economic environment makes it difficult in order to help the process of decision making. In the case of the forest activities, the complexity is still bigger in function of the long time required for the return of the investment. One of the alternatives that can be used by the investors is the transformation of uncertainty into risk. Thus, the objective of the article is to verify the adequacy of the Monte Carlo Method (MMC) in the risk evaluation of in forest activities with Pinus spp. The procedure  consists of the simulation of the Internal Tax of Return (ITR) and of Net Present Value (NPV) of the project, from the simulation of variables previously selected in the cash flow. The method revealed efficient in the risk analysis of forest activities. 
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spelling Evaluation of Risk in Investments ForestryAvaliação de Risco em Investimentos FlorestaisAvaliação econômica de projetosanálise de riscosimulação.Evaluation of Risk in Forest InvestmentsProject evaluationrisk analysissimulation.Economic evaluation of investment projects of is usually used as a form to search for parameters that are indicative of its viability. However, a condition of uncertainty in relation to the economic environment makes it difficult in order to help the process of decision making. In the case of the forest activities, the complexity is still bigger in function of the long time required for the return of the investment. One of the alternatives that can be used by the investors is the transformation of uncertainty into risk. Thus, the objective of the article is to verify the adequacy of the Monte Carlo Method (MMC) in the risk evaluation of in forest activities with Pinus spp. The procedure  consists of the simulation of the Internal Tax of Return (ITR) and of Net Present Value (NPV) of the project, from the simulation of variables previously selected in the cash flow. The method revealed efficient in the risk analysis of forest activities. A avaliação econômica de projetos de investimentos é comumente utilizada como forma de buscar parâmetros indicativos de sua viabilidade. Entretanto, as condições de incertezas em relação ao ambiente econômico dificultam o processo de tomada de decisão. No caso dos plantios florestais, a complexidade é ainda maior em função do alto tempo de retorno do investimento. Uma das alternativas que pode ser utilizada pelos investidores é a transformação das incertezas em risco. Assim, o objetivo do artigo é verificar a adequação do emprego do Método de Monte Carlo (MMC) na avaliação do risco em plantios florestais de Pinus spp. O procedimento consiste na simulação da Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) e do Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) do projeto, a partir da simulação de variáveis previamente selecionadas no fluxo de caixa. O método mostrou-se eficiente na análise de risco de plantios florestais. Embrapa Florestas2011-03-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/215Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira; n. 52 (2006): jan./jun.; 79Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira; No. 52 (2006): jan./jun.; 791983-26051809-3647reponame:Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira (Online)instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)instacron:EMBRAPAporhttps://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/215/166Simioni, Flávio JoséHoeflich, Vitor Afonsoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-03-19T21:48:10Zoai:pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb:article/215Revistahttps://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/PUBhttps://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/oaipfb@embrapa.br || revista.pfb@gmail.com || patricia.mattos@embrapa.br1983-26051809-3647opendoar:2021-03-19T21:48:10Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira (Online) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
Avaliação de Risco em Investimentos Florestais
title Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
spellingShingle Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
Simioni, Flávio José
Avaliação econômica de projetos
análise de risco
simulação.Evaluation of Risk in Forest Investments
Project evaluation
risk analysis
simulation.
title_short Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
title_full Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
title_fullStr Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
title_sort Evaluation of Risk in Investments Forestry
author Simioni, Flávio José
author_facet Simioni, Flávio José
Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso
author_role author
author2 Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Simioni, Flávio José
Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Avaliação econômica de projetos
análise de risco
simulação.Evaluation of Risk in Forest Investments
Project evaluation
risk analysis
simulation.
topic Avaliação econômica de projetos
análise de risco
simulação.Evaluation of Risk in Forest Investments
Project evaluation
risk analysis
simulation.
description Economic evaluation of investment projects of is usually used as a form to search for parameters that are indicative of its viability. However, a condition of uncertainty in relation to the economic environment makes it difficult in order to help the process of decision making. In the case of the forest activities, the complexity is still bigger in function of the long time required for the return of the investment. One of the alternatives that can be used by the investors is the transformation of uncertainty into risk. Thus, the objective of the article is to verify the adequacy of the Monte Carlo Method (MMC) in the risk evaluation of in forest activities with Pinus spp. The procedure  consists of the simulation of the Internal Tax of Return (ITR) and of Net Present Value (NPV) of the project, from the simulation of variables previously selected in the cash flow. The method revealed efficient in the risk analysis of forest activities. 
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011-03-08
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/215
url https://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/215
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/215/166
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Embrapa Florestas
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Embrapa Florestas
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira; n. 52 (2006): jan./jun.; 79
Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira; No. 52 (2006): jan./jun.; 79
1983-2605
1809-3647
reponame:Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira (Online)
instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
instacron:EMBRAPA
instname_str Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
instacron_str EMBRAPA
institution EMBRAPA
reponame_str Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira (Online)
collection Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira (Online) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv pfb@embrapa.br || revista.pfb@gmail.com || patricia.mattos@embrapa.br
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