Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: de Araujo, Carlos Eduardo Salles
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Massignam, Ângelo Mendes, Borges, Rafael Censi
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Agropecuária Catarinense (Online)
Texto Completo: https://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/rac/article/view/643
Resumo: Frost is a weather event characterized by the formaton of ice on exposed objects and plants, being observed mainly from May to September in Southern Brazil. Climate study and frost forecast are important for the agricultural sectordue to crop damage and consequent economic losses. This paper proposes a probabilistc model for the forecast of frost in different intensites in the State of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil. The methodology uses a generalized linear model to determine a frost index, corresponding to the relatonship between the occurrence of frosts in different intensites and the following variables of prognostc Weather Research and Forecastng (WRF) model: minimum daily air temperature (Tmin); relatve humidity and wind velocity, observed at the same tme as Tmin. The results obtained from the data analysis of a 3-yearperiod showed good performance of the model in predictng frost, especially in the separaton of the different intensites of the phenomenon.
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spelling Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, BrazilPrevisão de geada em Santa CatarinaAgrometeorologylogistc modelweather forecastAgrometeorologiamodelo logísticoprevisão do tempoFrost is a weather event characterized by the formaton of ice on exposed objects and plants, being observed mainly from May to September in Southern Brazil. Climate study and frost forecast are important for the agricultural sectordue to crop damage and consequent economic losses. This paper proposes a probabilistc model for the forecast of frost in different intensites in the State of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil. The methodology uses a generalized linear model to determine a frost index, corresponding to the relatonship between the occurrence of frosts in different intensites and the following variables of prognostc Weather Research and Forecastng (WRF) model: minimum daily air temperature (Tmin); relatve humidity and wind velocity, observed at the same tme as Tmin. The results obtained from the data analysis of a 3-yearperiod showed good performance of the model in predictng frost, especially in the separaton of the different intensites of the phenomenon. A geada é um evento meteorológico caracterizado pela formação de gelo sobre plantas e objetos expostos ao relento, sendo observada principalmente nos meses de maio a setembro na Região Sul do Brasil. O estudo climatológico e a previsão do fenômeno são importantes para o setor agropecuário em razão dos danos às culturas e consequentes prejuízos à economia. Este trabalho propõe um modelo probabilístco para previsão de geadas de diferentes intensidades no Estado deSanta Catarina. A metodologia utliza um modelo linear generalizado para determinar um índice de geada, correspondente à relação entre a ocorrência de geadas de diferentes intensidades e as seguintes variáveis prognóstcas do modelo meteorológico Weather Research and Forecastng (WRF): a temperatura mínima diária do ar (Tmin); a umidade relativa (UR) e a intensidade do vento (v) observadas no mesmo horário de Tmin. Os resultados obtidos a partr da análise de 3 anos de dados mostraram um bom desempenho do modelo na previsão de geada, principalmente na separação das diferentes intensidades do fenômeno. Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina - Epagri2020-04-28info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/rac/article/view/643Agropecuária Catarinense Journal; Vol. 25 No. 1 (2012); 87-90Agropecuária Catarinense; v. 25 n. 1 (2012); 87-902525-60760103-0779reponame:Agropecuária Catarinense (Online)instname:Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina (Epagri)instacron:EPAGRIporhttps://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/rac/article/view/643/545Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Agropecuária Catarinenseinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessde Araujo, Carlos Eduardo SallesMassignam, Ângelo MendesBorges, Rafael Censi2021-02-17T14:28:40Zoai:ojs.publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br:article/643Revistahttps://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/RAC/indexPUBhttps://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/index.php/RAC/oaieditoriarac@epagri.sc.gov.br || lamperuch@epagri.sc.gov.br2525-60760103-0779opendoar:2021-02-17T14:28:40Agropecuária Catarinense (Online) - Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina (Epagri)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
Previsão de geada em Santa Catarina
title Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
spellingShingle Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
de Araujo, Carlos Eduardo Salles
Agrometeorology
logistc model
weather forecast
Agrometeorologia
modelo logístico
previsão do tempo
title_short Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
title_full Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
title_fullStr Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
title_sort Frost forecast in Santa Catarina State, Brazil
author de Araujo, Carlos Eduardo Salles
author_facet de Araujo, Carlos Eduardo Salles
Massignam, Ângelo Mendes
Borges, Rafael Censi
author_role author
author2 Massignam, Ângelo Mendes
Borges, Rafael Censi
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv de Araujo, Carlos Eduardo Salles
Massignam, Ângelo Mendes
Borges, Rafael Censi
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Agrometeorology
logistc model
weather forecast
Agrometeorologia
modelo logístico
previsão do tempo
topic Agrometeorology
logistc model
weather forecast
Agrometeorologia
modelo logístico
previsão do tempo
description Frost is a weather event characterized by the formaton of ice on exposed objects and plants, being observed mainly from May to September in Southern Brazil. Climate study and frost forecast are important for the agricultural sectordue to crop damage and consequent economic losses. This paper proposes a probabilistc model for the forecast of frost in different intensites in the State of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil. The methodology uses a generalized linear model to determine a frost index, corresponding to the relatonship between the occurrence of frosts in different intensites and the following variables of prognostc Weather Research and Forecastng (WRF) model: minimum daily air temperature (Tmin); relatve humidity and wind velocity, observed at the same tme as Tmin. The results obtained from the data analysis of a 3-yearperiod showed good performance of the model in predictng frost, especially in the separaton of the different intensites of the phenomenon.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-04-28
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/rac/article/view/643
url https://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/rac/article/view/643
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://publicacoes.epagri.sc.gov.br/rac/article/view/643/545
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Agropecuária Catarinense
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Agropecuária Catarinense
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina - Epagri
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina - Epagri
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Agropecuária Catarinense Journal; Vol. 25 No. 1 (2012); 87-90
Agropecuária Catarinense; v. 25 n. 1 (2012); 87-90
2525-6076
0103-0779
reponame:Agropecuária Catarinense (Online)
instname:Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina (Epagri)
instacron:EPAGRI
instname_str Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina (Epagri)
instacron_str EPAGRI
institution EPAGRI
reponame_str Agropecuária Catarinense (Online)
collection Agropecuária Catarinense (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Agropecuária Catarinense (Online) - Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina (Epagri)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv editoriarac@epagri.sc.gov.br || lamperuch@epagri.sc.gov.br
_version_ 1754917259434786816

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