Temporal series and neural networks: a comparative analysis of techniques in the Brazilian retail sales forecast

• Autor(a) principal: Angelo, Claudio Felisoni de
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Outros Autores: Zwicker, Ronaldo, Fouto, Nuno Manoel Martins Dias, Luppe, Marcos Roberto
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng; por
• Título da fonte: BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online)
• Texto Completo: http://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/302
• topic: Temporal series; neural networks; sales forecast; retail; Séries temporais; redes neurais; previsão de vendas; varejo

An important economic activity in any society regards the commercialization of assets. The retail consists exactly of the link established between the industry and the final consumer. To predict the sales is essential so that one can manage in a proper way the production and commercialization processes. In the retail, this aspect is even more important. To sale means to harmonize the concerns of those producing with those who buy. Therefore, this paper is intended to exam comparatively the application of two retail sales forecast methods in the Brazilian market: the temporal series and the neural networks. The selection of those two techniques as object of that comparison was aroused by the importance those two conceptions have assumed in the literature. Although the utilization of neural networks has provided the smallest sum of the squares of the residues, one may say that the results using models of the ARIMA type have shown to be practically equivalent.