Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng spa |
Título da fonte: | Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/4080 |
Resumo: | Purpose – An econometric model is established to explain bankruptcy in Ecuadorian banks. The utility of combining macroeconomic, financial, and idiosyncratic determinants to explain bankruptcy is empirically demonstrated.Design/methodology/approach – The cross-sectional analysis includes 24 banks between 1996 and 2016. Bankruptcy is considered as a rare event. Findings – Even in adverse macroeconomic conditions, the main factor explaining bankruptcy is lax administration. Also, those banks with higher levels of indebtedness with respect to their capital levels are more susceptible to bankruptcy. Higher levels of spread and lower inflation are associated with lower levels of bankruptcy. Ceteris paribus, after dollarization the bankruptcy probability decreases and the effective management of each bank becomes a relevant factor to explain bankruptcy. Originality/value – Different determinants are combined in order to produce predictive models with practical value and macro-dependent dynamics that are relevant for stress tests. There is empirical evidence that the change in the monetary system has helped to stabilize the financial system. The problem of having a small sample and rare events is evident and adequately addressed. |
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Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragilityDeterminantes económicos y financieros de la quiebra bancaria: evidencia de los bancos privados del Ecuador e incidencia de la dolarización en la fragilidad financieraDeterminantes económicos y financieros de la quiebra bancaria: evidencia de los bancos privados del Ecuador e incidencia de la dolarización en la fragilidad financierabankruptcydollarizationrare eventsmall samplefinancial crisisQuiebra bancariadolarizaciónevento raromuestra pequeñacrisis financiera.Quiebra bancariadolarizaciónevento raromuestra pequeñacrisis financiera.Purpose – An econometric model is established to explain bankruptcy in Ecuadorian banks. The utility of combining macroeconomic, financial, and idiosyncratic determinants to explain bankruptcy is empirically demonstrated.Design/methodology/approach – The cross-sectional analysis includes 24 banks between 1996 and 2016. Bankruptcy is considered as a rare event. Findings – Even in adverse macroeconomic conditions, the main factor explaining bankruptcy is lax administration. Also, those banks with higher levels of indebtedness with respect to their capital levels are more susceptible to bankruptcy. Higher levels of spread and lower inflation are associated with lower levels of bankruptcy. Ceteris paribus, after dollarization the bankruptcy probability decreases and the effective management of each bank becomes a relevant factor to explain bankruptcy. Originality/value – Different determinants are combined in order to produce predictive models with practical value and macro-dependent dynamics that are relevant for stress tests. There is empirical evidence that the change in the monetary system has helped to stabilize the financial system. The problem of having a small sample and rare events is evident and adequately addressed. Objetivo – Se establece un modelo econométrico para explicar la quiebra enlos bancos ecuatorianos. Se demuestra empíricamente la utilidad de combinardeterminantes macroeconómicos, financieros e idiosincráticos.Metodología – El análisis transversal incluye el estudio de 24 bancos privados entre1996 y 2016. La quiebra se considera un evento raro.Resultados – Incluso en condiciones macroeconómicas adversas, el principal factorque explica la bancarrota es una administración laxa. Aquellos bancos con mayorendeudamiento respecto al capital son más susceptibles a la quiebra. Un mayorspread y una inflación más baja están asociados a una menor probabilidad dequiebra. Ceteris paribus, después de la dolarización, la probabilidad de quiebradisminuye y la gestión efectiva de cada banco se convierte en un factor relevantepara explicar la bancarrota.Contribuciones – Se combinan diferentes determinantes para producir modelospredictivos con valor práctico y dinámicas macrodependientes que son relevantespara las pruebas de tensión. La evidencia muestra que el cambio en el sistemamonetario ha ayudado a estabilizar el sistema financiero. La problemática existentede tener una muestra pequeña y eventos raros se deja en evidencia y se abordaadecuadamente.Objetivo – Se establece un modelo econométrico para explicar la quiebra enlos bancos ecuatorianos. Se demuestra empíricamente la utilidad de combinardeterminantes macroeconómicos, financieros e idiosincráticos.Metodología – El análisis transversal incluye el estudio de 24 bancos privados entre1996 y 2016. La quiebra se considera un evento raro.Resultados – Incluso en condiciones macroeconómicas adversas, el principal factorque explica la bancarrota es una administración laxa. Aquellos bancos con mayorendeudamiento respecto al capital son más susceptibles a la quiebra. Un mayorspread y una inflación más baja están asociados a una menor probabilidad dequiebra. Ceteris paribus, después de la dolarización, la probabilidad de quiebradisminuye y la gestión efectiva de cada banco se convierte en un factor relevantepara explicar la bancarrota.Contribuciones – Se combinan diferentes determinantes para producir modelospredictivos con valor práctico y dinámicas macrodependientes que son relevantespara las pruebas de tensión. La evidencia muestra que el cambio en el sistemamonetario ha ayudado a estabilizar el sistema financiero. La problemática existentede tener una muestra pequeña y eventos raros se deja en evidencia y se abordaadecuadamente.FECAP2020-11-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionAvaliado por paresapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/408010.7819/rbgn.v22i4.4080Review of Business Management; Vol. 22 No. 4 (2020); 949-972RBGN Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios; Vol. 22 Núm. 4 (2020); 949-972RBGN - Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios; v. 22 n. 4 (2020); 949-9721983-08071806-4892reponame:Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios (Online)instname:Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado (FECAP)instacron:FECAPengspahttps://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/4080/pdfhttps://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/4080/pdf_1Copyright (c) 2020 Review of Business Managementinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessUquillas, AdrianaFlores, Francis2022-06-23T13:26:15Zoai:ojs.emnuvens.com.br:article/4080Revistahttp://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/indexhttps://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/oai||jmauricio@fecap.br1983-08071806-4892opendoar:2022-06-23T13:26:15Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios (Online) - Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado (FECAP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility Determinantes económicos y financieros de la quiebra bancaria: evidencia de los bancos privados del Ecuador e incidencia de la dolarización en la fragilidad financiera Determinantes económicos y financieros de la quiebra bancaria: evidencia de los bancos privados del Ecuador e incidencia de la dolarización en la fragilidad financiera |
title |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility |
spellingShingle |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility Uquillas, Adriana bankruptcy dollarization rare event small sample financial crisis Quiebra bancaria dolarización evento raro muestra pequeña crisis financiera. Quiebra bancaria dolarización evento raro muestra pequeña crisis financiera. |
title_short |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility |
title_full |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility |
title_fullStr |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility |
title_full_unstemmed |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility |
title_sort |
Economic and financial determinants of bankrupcy: evidence from Ecuador's private banks and the impact of dollarization on financial fragility |
author |
Uquillas, Adriana |
author_facet |
Uquillas, Adriana Flores, Francis |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Flores, Francis |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Uquillas, Adriana Flores, Francis |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
bankruptcy dollarization rare event small sample financial crisis Quiebra bancaria dolarización evento raro muestra pequeña crisis financiera. Quiebra bancaria dolarización evento raro muestra pequeña crisis financiera. |
topic |
bankruptcy dollarization rare event small sample financial crisis Quiebra bancaria dolarización evento raro muestra pequeña crisis financiera. Quiebra bancaria dolarización evento raro muestra pequeña crisis financiera. |
description |
Purpose – An econometric model is established to explain bankruptcy in Ecuadorian banks. The utility of combining macroeconomic, financial, and idiosyncratic determinants to explain bankruptcy is empirically demonstrated.Design/methodology/approach – The cross-sectional analysis includes 24 banks between 1996 and 2016. Bankruptcy is considered as a rare event. Findings – Even in adverse macroeconomic conditions, the main factor explaining bankruptcy is lax administration. Also, those banks with higher levels of indebtedness with respect to their capital levels are more susceptible to bankruptcy. Higher levels of spread and lower inflation are associated with lower levels of bankruptcy. Ceteris paribus, after dollarization the bankruptcy probability decreases and the effective management of each bank becomes a relevant factor to explain bankruptcy. Originality/value – Different determinants are combined in order to produce predictive models with practical value and macro-dependent dynamics that are relevant for stress tests. There is empirical evidence that the change in the monetary system has helped to stabilize the financial system. The problem of having a small sample and rare events is evident and adequately addressed. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-11-12 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Avaliado por pares |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/4080 10.7819/rbgn.v22i4.4080 |
url |
https://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/4080 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.7819/rbgn.v22i4.4080 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng spa |
language |
eng spa |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/4080/pdf https://rbgn.fecap.br/RBGN/article/view/4080/pdf_1 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Review of Business Management info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Review of Business Management |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
FECAP |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
FECAP |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Review of Business Management; Vol. 22 No. 4 (2020); 949-972 RBGN Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios; Vol. 22 Núm. 4 (2020); 949-972 RBGN - Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios; v. 22 n. 4 (2020); 949-972 1983-0807 1806-4892 reponame:Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios (Online) instname:Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado (FECAP) instacron:FECAP |
instname_str |
Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado (FECAP) |
instacron_str |
FECAP |
institution |
FECAP |
reponame_str |
Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios (Online) |
collection |
Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios (Online) - Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado (FECAP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||jmauricio@fecap.br |
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1798942370372255744 |