Estimation of the states' social security liabilities

• Autor(a) principal: Schymura, Luiz Guilherme
• Data de Publicação: 2001
• Outros Autores: Lannes, Osmar Perazzo, Perdigão, Luís Antonio
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista de Administração Pública
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/6361
• topic: previdência; estados; passivo previdenciário.

When the new social security legislation for the public sector changed the simple partition system to that of capitalization, it made it necessary for the federal, state and local governments to build reserves, so as to guarantee the payment of current and future benefits for public servers and pensioners. This paper estimates the current level of those reserves, called social security liabilities, for all Brazilian states and the Federal District, based on simplifying hypotheses, determined by the higher level of detail of the available data, and on a model that is presented here. The main result was the numerical assessment of the state's and the Federal District's social security liabilities, estimated in R$289 billion, based on 1997 data, which corresponds to an average of 33.5% of the country's GDP in that year. The Southeast itself answered for 51% of this total, followed by the South (18%), the Northeast (17%), the Midwest (10%), and the North (5%). Of the R$289 billion, R$169 billion (59%) correspond to reserves for current retirees and pensioners that must be paid immediately, R$87 billion (30%) refer to active public servers who will retire in an average time of 14 years, and R$33 billion (11%) are for the pensioners who will receive their benefits sometime between the two former groups.